Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday July 4, 2020 9:01 AM EDT (13:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 041018 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 620 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak backdoor front will move southward through the region today, bringing scattered late day showers and storms. Behind this front, high pressure will extend into the area from the north tonight through Sunday before moving offshore. Low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states Monday, allowing moisture to return to the Carolinas with increasing rain chances early to mid week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 222 AM Saturday .

After a dry Friday, isolated to scattered storms are expected to return today, albeit with limited coverage. The surface pattern over much of the eastern third of the CONUS has grown more homogeneous in the last day, with a weak MSLP field, greater uniformity of surface dewpoints, and very light/erratic surface winds making it difficult to identify boundaries. But the incoming backdoor front is somewhat evident from roughly NYC NW through W NY, and this is expected to push southward through the Mid Atlantic into NC today through this evening, driven by a subtle mid level wave dropping S and SE through and offshore of the Mid Atlantic region. PW is expected to slowly tick upward today into tonight, particularly over our NE and E- central sections where values should approach or just exceed 1.5". Moderate MLCAPE is expected as well, peaking in the 1000-2000 J/kg range mainly across our N and E. But any dynamic forcing for ascent will be very small due in part to the weak wind field through the column, and this will also result in poor deep layer shear of less than 20 kts, thus most storms are likely to remain sub-severe today. Will keep isolated to scattered pops, starting first over the far NE and far NW (near terrain-focused convection) around lunchtime before expanding through much of the CWA especially through central sections from late afternoon through mid evening. We reached highs of 90-96 yesterday with decent heating and starting thicknesses in the low 1410s, and with a similar regime today, temps shouldn't be far off those of yesterday. Expect highs of 90-97, which will push heat indices into the 95-100 range. Any storms should slowly decrease in intensity and coverage from late evening on, but at least scattered convective debris mid and high clouds should meander over the region overnight, limiting radiational cooling. Expect lows of 68-74. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 240 AM Saturday .

PW and peak MLCAPE will rise in both magnitude and areal coverage by Sunday, with PW inching up to above 1.5" across all of central NC and moderate MLCAPE over much of the area Sun afternoon. Low and mid level flow remains quite weak, however, so any storms Sun will form on very indistinct and meandering boundaries with limited upscale growth and maintenance due to the poor wind field. Will follow a fairly typical summer precip pattern, with pops starting by early afternoon, peaking late in the day before decreasing late evening to early overnight as the near-surface layer slowly stabilizes. Thicknesses are expected to remain largely near to above normal, except over NE sections which will be under the influence of weak high pressure drifting offshore of the VA Tidewater region. Expect highs to be slightly lowered from today due to a bit greater mid and high cloud cover resulting from convective debris, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, coolest NE. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 218 AM Saturday .

The main weather story during the long term period will be a closed mid-level low, positioned over Deep South on Monday, progged to slowly drift across the Southeast through the mid- to late-week period. A series of sfc low pressure waves assoc with the aforementioned closed low will move along an old boundary positioned across the coastal Carolina region during this time. Ahead of these features, southerly flow will transport a plume of deep moisture northward toward our area beginning Monday night, and this moisture will set the stage for increased rain chances across much of the Southeast portion of the county as the system slowly drifts eastward. Unfortunately the models have been lacking run-to-run consistency regarding the placement of all of the aforementioned features, and the latest model runs keep the deepest moisture to our south. So confidence is fairly low in the long term period. Nevertheless, for now this patterns warrants above-climo PoPs for much of the long term period (highest PoPs each day during the afternoon and evening).

Temps during the period will generally run a few deg either side of normal, although the days with more clouds and rain will likely remain a few deg below normal.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 620 AM Saturday .

VFR conditions are likely to dominate through the next 18-24 hours across central NC. Fairly dry air in place near the ground will limit potential for fog/stratus this morning, particularly with a batch of mid and high clouds spreading in from the west this morning to slightly limit radiational cooling. Only scattered mid and high clouds at most are expected for much of the day, although a period of broken high-based cu is expected with heating this afternoon, and there is a chance for storms mainly impacting (but not limited to) RWI/RDU 18z to 00z, leading to isolated sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds in/near storms. There is a risk for sub-VFR fog and stratus particularly near RDU/RWI/FAY 08z-12z Sun morning. Surface winds overall will remain light and variable.

Looking beyond 12z Sun, daily afternoon and evening scattered storms and the resultant risk of brief sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds will return Sun afternoon and be the norm through mid week, as weak but persistent mid level low pressure sits over the Mid Miss Valley across the Mid South and Carolinas. There is a good chance for early- morning sub-VFR fog and stratus areawide both Tue morning and Wed morning. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Hartfield NEAR TERM . Hartfield SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . np AVIATION . Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi71 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F71°F85%1013.1 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair74°F74°F99%1013.5 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1013.5 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5343S4E7Calm5NE5N6NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE6E6NE8NE10NE7N7N8N6NE10NE7NE8NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4W4SW4Calm34SW8--SW7W5W6W5--CalmCalmE6E3NE43NE3NE4NE5CalmNE6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:32 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.11.41.61.61.41.10.90.60.3000.30.711.21.21.10.80.60.40.2-0-0

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:20 PM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.121.71.41.10.70.3-00.10.51.11.41.61.61.410.70.40.1-0.1-00.51.11.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.