Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:31PM Monday January 20, 2020 2:10 PM EST (19:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:31AMMoonset 1:56PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 201853 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 152 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Chilly and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest and north through Thursday. A slow moving upper level low will approach from the west late in the week, bringing increasing clouds and rain chances by Friday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 955 AM Monday .

Mid morning water vapor imagery continues to depict dry air across the region, with a compact fast moving upper low over Iowa and Illinois. It's certainly a cold airmass west of the Appalachian Mtns this morning with many locations seeing light snow and temps in the teens and single digits. Across central NC however, temps were slowly rising through the upper 20s into the lower 30s. Although not as cold as other parts of the country, it's a far cry from where we've been as of late.

The upper low will continue moving to the southeast, eventually crossing the mountains and diving through Georgia and Alabama late tonight. As it moves east, it will encounter the very dry airmass that is in place across New England and the Mid Atlantic. Not only are surface dewpoints in the teens across the area, but today's 12Z GSO upper air data revealed approximately 0.17 inches of precipitable water which is in the 10th percentile for mid January. Getting any sort of precipitation from this upper low is extremely unlikely and aside from a few high clouds, impacts will be nil. Overall a quiet day weather-wise with sunny skies and below normal temps. Looks for lows tonight to be about 5 degrees cooler than what was seen this morning with widespread lower 20s across central NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 215 AM Monday .

Quiet weather continues for central NC. The potent mid level shortwave trough over S MN early this morning will continue to dive SE through the mid Miss Valley today then to GA and the Carolinas by Tue morning, with the dynamic trop dropping below (groundward) 500 mb. But models show very low PW spreading SSW over central and western NC, and with surface high pressure in control, we should see another day of abundant sunshine. The coastal Carolinas and points near and off the Southeast coast may be influenced by the increased and focused forcing for ascent just off the Southeast coast, instigated by strengthening upper divergence and 100+ m height falls, both peaking late Tue. That said, moisture will be limited through the column even near the coast, so expect only a few mid clouds at most in our SE. Morning thicknesses will again be around 45 m below normal, so persistence will rule, and highs should again be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Expect lows in the lower-mid 20s with some upper teens in the Piedmont, slightly higher than tonight's lows as the low levels stay a bit stirred overnight. -GIH

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 152 PM Tuesday .

Some moderating temperatures as the next storm system arrives for Friday into Saturday. A chilly rain with Piedmont CAD conditions expected Friday afternoon and night.

It appears that a Hybrid Cold Air Damming event is becoming likely for our Piedmont Damming region of NC beginning Friday. Thursday into Thursday night should be dominated by a moderating polar air mass courtesy of the 1030+ mb surface high pressure that is forecast to extend from New England SW across the Carolina's into GA Thursday. This high pressure is forecast to slowly weaken by Friday, but still be in a position and of adequate strength to continue to deliver modified cold and dry air advection into our region from the north into Friday morning. Therefore, Thursday and Thursday night are expected to be chilly (but slowly modifying thicknesses and temperatures) as highs will likely fall into the mid 40s north ranging to around 50 south Thursday. Lows Thursday night with increasing high cloudiness should still be fairly cold, with mid 20 north and east ranging to around 30 south, where the cloudiness should thicken or arrive first.

This sets the stage for Friday into the weekend with a system that will be dealing with at least modest cool air for a P-Type potential issue from portions of the central (possibly NC) Appalachians north and eastward. For us, it appears that models have trending cooler and wetter as the mid/upper low track is projected with a closer track to our region. In addition, there are stronger CAD signals today, as well. Still, the most likely mid/upper low track per the WPC model forecasts preferences would be just far enough to our west and north to allow a strong warm nose to surge into our region. It appears that even the southern track of the 00z/EC has trending back a bit north with the 12z run today - which is more in line with the majority of the GFS. However, the CAD signal is strong for Friday into Friday night as most solutions now have rain developing Friday morning in the west, spreading north and east over the region Friday afternoon. A swath of 0.25 to 0.40 of QPF between 15z and 21z in the Piedmont is depicted by many ensemble members of the EC and is a bit quicker in this much rain per the GFS. Therefore, with the surface high pressure in place down the eastern seaboard early in the day, this QPF would be plenty to produce strong evaporative cooling of the residual very dry and cool air in place (even as the low level cool and dry advection should end before 12z). Then, strong UVV up and over the rapidly developing cold dome is expected as the mid/upper low approaches the Appalachians inducing a surface wave over GA or SC. This wave of low pressure is then expected to lift NE along the Coastal Plain of NC and into VA late Friday night and early Saturday. The strongest lift should shift north of the region between 09z and 15z/Saturday - shifting the rains north into VA. Left over CAD conditions with low stratus, fog, drizzle and some light rain are then expected much of Saturday over the CAD Piedmont region, with the potential for partial clearing in the south and east as the flow becomes westerly after noon there.

With the above in mind, expect a cold rain to develop Friday with temperatures under statistical guidance, especially over the Piedmont. Highs may hold in the upper 30s for the Triad to Roxboro, with 40s to mid 50s south and east into the Coastal Plain. A chilly rain Friday night with temperatures holding steady or slowly rising - into the 40s NW and 50s SE. Rain ending early Saturday, then partial clearing SE and remaining cloudy in the NW. Highs in the 40s NW to near 60 SE.

Saturday night through Monday, generally expect a rapid drying trend with the NW flow behind the departing storm system Saturday night and Sunday. The air mass will be modified Canadian - not Yukon - and thus it will be seasonably cool. Lows in the upper 20s and 30s. Highs Sunday and Monday in the lower to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 1244 PM Monday .

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected across the area through the TAF period. Breezy winds this afternoon will relax this evening, although some overnight gustiness around 15kts will be possible at RWI and FAY. Otherwise expect winds to pick up once again on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday afternoon, VFR weather will prevail through late in the week. Non-VFR cigs/vsbys possible at times late Thursday into Saturday as a storm system moves in from the south and west.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . Badgett/Hartfield NEAR TERM . Leins SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . Badgett AVIATION . Leins


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi80 minNNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds36°F12°F39%1027.2 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi76 minN 610.00 miFair38°F14°F37%1027.1 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi76 minNNE 8 G 1510.00 miFair35°F12°F38%1027.1 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi76 minN 4 G 1510.00 miFair37°F14°F38%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7SW10SW7S7W4SW6NW4CalmW5SW5W8SW10SW11SW7SW8SW12W8W6W7W8W8
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2 days agoNE7CalmNE7NE3CalmE5E6E6E5E6E8E4E6SE5SE5SE4S5SE5SE6S4S6S4S5S11

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 03:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:07 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:50 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.70.40.20-0.100.40.81.11.31.41.310.80.60.30.1-00.20.50.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:53 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.2-0-0.10.10.61.11.51.81.81.61.310.70.30-00.30.81.21.51.61.41.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.