Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:59PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 9:28 PM EDT (01:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 212324
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
724 pm pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Weak subsidence will filter into central nc on the backside of a
departing upper level disturbance exiting east off the coast. In its
wake, a surface trough will begin to sharpen across the appalachian
foothills with the bermuda high strengthening off the southeastern
atlantic coast. This will help strengthen onshore flow ahead of a
strengthening upper-trough and associated cold front, likely to pass
through central nc Friday night and Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 220 pm Wednesday...

latest water vapor imagery depicts a weakening shortwave now
departing off the mid atlantic coast with a secondary shear axis,
associated with a weakening mid level shortwave, now beginning to
cross the appalachian mountains. At the surface, bermuda high
pressure continues to keep southwesterly flow dominant across the
eastern seaboard with a developing leeside trough beginning to
sharpen along the appalachian foothills. Full boundary layer heating
and mixing was slow to come by this morning thanks to a stubborn
low level stratus deck in place across much of the cwa. This feature
finally decayed around lunchtime, allowing at least modest
heating destabilization to occur. Current SPC mesoanalysis depicts
2500 - 3500 j kg sb CAPE beginning to form across portions of
central nc, with ml CAPE nearing 2000 j kg across the eastern
piedmont coastal plain zones where surface dewpoints remain in the
middle 70s. Some subsidence capping is evident across the area,
which should be ample enough to limit airmass thunderstorm
development until much later in the period. Cams continue to back off
on tstorm coverage this afternoon and evening, depicting only
isolated development along the residual MCV outflow boundary draped
ne SW just east of the i-95 corridor, where coverage should be
prominent earlier in the period (between 2pm- 6pm); and across the
northwest piedmont where weak mid-level forcing is expected to cross
east of the foothills with residual daytime heating to work with. In
response, have trended pops slightly higher than cam guidance this
afternoon and evening, with isolated to scattered storms possible,
especially across the northwestern zones. Any storms that do form
could produce locally heavy rainfall thanks to slower storm motions
(15 to 20kts) and localized damaging wind gusts from embedded wet
microbursts. Showers and storms may linger briefly into the
overnight hours, but should weaken drastically with the setting sun.

Even with the late start, afternoon temperatures remain on track,
likely to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the next few
hours. Overnight lows will settle in the lower 70s, with only patchy
fog stratus formation possible.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 325 pm Wednesday...

our region will remain primarily under the influence of the bermuda
high during the short-term period, keeping a warm moist surface flow
regime in place. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will help to
sharpen and maintain the lee side trough over the western piedmont
zones, which will likely serve as the primary forcing mechanism for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Skies should remain mostly
clear for the early part of the day, allowing plenty of
destabilization to occur. Expect sb ml CAPE values equivalent if not
slightly higher than on Monday thanks to slightly higher sfc
dewpoints and plentiful surface heating. While most cams aren't very
bullish in terms of convective coverage, expect at least airmass
type thunderstorms to be scattered to low end numerous, especially
along and west of us-1. Primary threat will once again be locally
damaging winds and heavy rainfall due to the slow moving nature of
the convection. Storms should follow diurnal climo guidelines, and
diminish rapidly after sunset, leaving only patchy fog stratus.

Daytime high temperatures will be comparable, if not a degree or two
warmer than what was witnessed Wednesday, topping out in the upper
80s (nw) to lower 90s. Overnight lows will settle into the low to
mid 70s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 250 pm Wednesday...

a cold front associated with an unseasonably strong northern stream
trough upper low passage through the NE us and mid-atlantic states
will provide the focus for widespread showers and storms at the
start of the period. The timing of this front through the area
continues to be a source of large model spread and high forecast
uncertainty. General timing brings the cold front into the area
from the NW late Friday afternoon and will slip slowly south through
the overnight, before finally settling south of the area on Saturday.

Low-level frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region
of a ~90 kt upper jet streak associated with the upper trough moving
through the region will result in deep strong ascent across the
area. Precipitable waters of 2.0-2.25", MLCAPE ~2000 j kg and a belt
of strong westerlies of 30 to 35 kts dropping south into the area
will support the threat for organized strong to severe storms, along
with the threat of heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with localized
flash flooding possible Friday afternoon and evening.

If latest model trends verify, a shallow of wedge of cooler and
stable air will advect south through the day on Saturday as the cold
front progresses south into sc and ga. While convection should
follow the front, models suggest a a period of ana-frontal precip
lingering across at least southern portions of the forecast area
invof of the h8 trough axis Saturday afternoon and evening,
possibly lingering into Saturday night. As the cooler and drier
continues to filter into the area from the north Saturday night and
into Sunday, courtesy of a strong ~1030 parent sfc high over new
england, rain chances should decrease, leaving behind primarily
cloudy and cool conditions Sunday and Monday. Rain chances return as
early as Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of a shortwave
trough from the wsw.

Finally, the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located
over the central and northwestern bahamas. Some slow development of
this system is possible with a low-20% chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone over the next several days. As such, it is incredibly too
early to forecast what impacts, if any, are possible across central
nc. Make sure you follow a trusted weather source for all of your
weather information.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 720 pm Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: a line of strong thunderstorms will continue to
move southeast through central nc this evening into the early
overnight hours. The usual strong winds and sub-vfr CIGS and visbys
will accompany heavy storms if they move over a terminal. The most
likely will be krdu and possibly krwi and kfay if they make it that
far southeast. Otherwise,VFR conditions with winds around 5 kts or
so will prevail through the TAF period. The models do not suggest
any sub-vfr conditions overnight early morning so for now will keep
them out. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday
aft eve, primarily moving in the far northwest toward the end of the
taf period. These storms will again result in the usual adverse
aviation conditions where they occur. -kc
looking ahead: afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
coverage will increase along with the likelihood of widespread
fog stratus across the region each morning as a cold front moves
into and through the region Friday night into Saturday. There could
be a brief period of favorable aviation conditions on the backside
of the front Saturday evening into Sunday, however, the front is
expected to lift back north as early as Sunday night, bringing
chances for additional rounds of showers and storms into early next
week. -kc jjm

Equipment
Repairs out at the gso upper-air observation site have been
completed. Flights will continue, as weather dictates, beginning
again tongiht (00z Thursday observation). National helium shortages
continue to impede normal observation schedules.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Jjm
near term... Jjm
short term... Jjm
long term... Cbl
aviation... Kc jjm
equipment... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi98 minW 8 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F87%1016.3 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi74 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F74°F71%1015.9 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi74 minW 9 G 145.00 miHeavy Rain73°F71°F95%1017.6 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi74 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F78°F89%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5W13SW6W5W4S4S5SW11
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1 day agoSW3SW7CalmW3W4CalmCalmS4W5SW6SW6SW6SW9SW6SW7SW7SW11SW10SW13SW8SW9SW7W7SW5
2 days agoCalmS4S4S3W3SW4SW5SW5W5SW6SW5SW6SW76SW6W6S7SW5W5S12SE6S7SW8S5

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:28 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:46 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.20.40.81.21.31.31.31.10.80.50.30.20.10.30.71.11.31.41.31.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Wed -- 04:14 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:32 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:28 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.21.61.81.81.61.310.60.30.20.20.511.51.81.81.71.51.20.80.60.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.