Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fuquay-Varina, NC

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:39PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 10:14 PM EST (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 6:38AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fuquay-Varina, NC
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location: 35.64, -78.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 280112 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 809 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surface low pressure developing over Alabama and Georgia this afternoon will track northeast across South Carolina tonight and then off the coast. Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north on Thursday and persist through Saturday. Another storm system will cross the region early Sunday through Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 340 PM Wednesday .

Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front along the Carolina coast that extends into the northern Gulf coast and a cold front extending from southern MD/northern VA west into WV. Skies have cleared across much of central NC in region of ridging aloft. The clear skies across the area has allowed temperatures to rise into the lower to mid 50s across much of the area although persistent low clouds across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain has kept temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the these locations.

An arctic air airmass with a primary 1040 mb high is centered over the northern Plains and south central Canada with a portion of the high bulging east into the Great Lakes and the northeast. A vigorous shortwave trough across MO and AR early this afternoon will push east into the TN Valley this evening and strengthen with the 500 mb flow strengthening to 125kts as the trough moves off the coast by daybreak Thursday. Low pressure organizing across the northeastern Gulf Coast will move northeast and off the SC coast toward midnight. As the potent upper trough moves across the area, another shield of precipitation will develop across the southern Appalachians late this afternoon and evening and then spread northeast across central NC very late this evening and overnight.

Surface and low level temperatures will be well above freezing this evening and only rain is expected through the late evening hours. Colder and drier air will drain into the region from the northeast this evening toward KIXA and KHNZ, but this air will likely be insufficient to change the precipitation over to snow. Rather, a short period of much more widespread and heavier precipitation will spread across the area a little before and especially after midnight. Melting from snow falling aloft and dynamic cooling will dramatically cool the column and surface temperatures to near freezing allowing the precipitation to change to snow.

Recent model trends have produced heavier precipitation tonight and have come into better agreement with the surface and thermal pattern and precipitation amounts. Several of the models now produce 0.10 to 0.15 inches of liquid precipitation per hour for a couple of hours across the northern half of central NC. Given the trend, have opted to increase snow accumulations across the area with 1 to 3 inches expected across the north and northeast and a more general 1 to 2 inches in the Triad and Triangle. Accumulating snow has been expanded south a bit and have expanded the winter weather advisory in Lee, Harnett, Johnston and Wayne counties. Snow will most readily accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces and be slower to accumulate on roadways. Have opted not to jump on board some of the guidance which is showing much larger accumulations that range close to or in excess of 6 inches given the tendency for some of these algorithms to be overzealous with the snow accumulations, the warm to start boundary layer and the narrow window of accumulating snow. Lows tonight will fall into the 30 to 36 range with winds increasing and becoming northerly tonight and gusting from 15 to 25 mph at times. -blaes

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 PM Wednesday .

The surface low and upper trough will be moving away from the region on Thursday and Thursday night resulting in cold and dry conditions. Any lingering snow showers or flurries across the Coastal Plain at daybreak will move way by mid morning with mainly sunny skies expected by late morning. Highs will only range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. It will be very cold with lows between 15 and 25 on Thursday night. -Blaes

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 250 PM Wednesday .

The period will start with shortwave ridging aloft and a ridge of high pressure at the surface extending south from the upper Great Lakes. Low level thicknesses are progged to be in the 1285-1295m range, which should result in morning lows in the upper teens and lower 20s . although some high clouds spilling over the upper ridging could impact lows Saturday morning . with highs int he mid 40s.

Sat night through Monday . the atmospheric river producing trough along the west coast today will swing east through the central US and then across the Mid-Atlantic States/Southeast, with models indicating a Miller B low moving up the coast Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS remains a slightly faster, weaker and warmer solution compared to the ECWMF. Wintry precip will be a concern given the intrusion of arctic air preceding the system, although the parent high is forecast to be sub-1040mb and a bit far to the north of the preferred location for optimal cold air supply. The forecast pattern suggests some wintry precip at onset, with a changeover for most of the CWA, followed by some wrap around moisture in the ECWMF's deeper upper low on Monday. Will keep snow mention confined to the climatological region in the NW Piedmont.

The middle of next week appears to be dry with ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system, though models indicate height falls again over the central US and another low pressure system encroaching on the eastern US by the end of the week. Temps should start out slightly below normal and trend to or above normal as the week wears on.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 809 PM Wednesday .

The rapidly approaching mid level trough will induce a surface low pressure development offshore later tonight and early Thursday. Rain has already overspread the Mountains, with the rain/snow line still located in SE KY. VFR CIGS will lower to IFR and LIFR conditions with rain developing from the west this evening, spreading into the KFAY and KRWI areas around 05-06z.

Initially, the precipitation will be all rain before changing to a mix of rain and snow across the north at around 06Z and then to all wet snow for a short time before ending from west to east between 09 and 12Z. The precipitation will largely be rain across the south with a short period of an hour or two of mixed rain and snow. Conditions will improve notably after 12Z with VFR by 15-18z.

Looking beyond Thursday PM, VFR conditions with fair weather is expected Thursday afternoon into Saturday evening. Another storm system will bring a threat of adverse aviation conditions to the area late Saturday and continue into Sunday with some improvement on Monday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078.

SYNOPSIS . Blaes NEAR TERM . Blaes SHORT TERM . BLS LONG TERM . BLS AVIATION . Blaes/Badgett


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC17 mi23 minE 1010.00 miLight Rain44°F40°F85%1014.7 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC18 mi19 minNE 12 G 175.00 miRain47°F47°F100%1013.9 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC19 mi19 minNE 810.00 miRain44°F44°F100%1013.9 hPa
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC20 mi19 minNE 94.00 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmS5S3E3E3E3CalmNE63NE8E6E7E7NE8NE9E10
1 day ago--E8CalmNE6NE5NE5NE5E7NE3NE334N43NW3W3W4W4SW5W3W5SW6W6W4
2 days agoCalmSE5SE3CalmSE3S4SW4S3S4CalmS3SE3SE3E4E4SE3SE4CalmE3E4E3CalmNE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Wed -- 02:18 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:55 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 PM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:47 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.210.70.40.20-0.10.10.511.31.41.41.31.10.80.60.30.100.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Wed -- 05:41 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:20 AM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:33 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:45 PM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.20.80.50.2-0-0.10.20.81.41.71.81.81.61.310.70.30.10.10.40.91.31.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.