Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso de Robles (Paso Robles), CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...29/910 AM.

***UPDATE***

Expecting a quiet stretch of weather at least through the first half of the week. Stratus pulled out of LA/Ventura Counties last night but is threatening to return. Along the Central Coast the marine layer is not only still in tact, but it's deepened to 4000 feet and has crossed into the Central Valley as well. Could easily some drizzle or even light rain there today and/or tomorrow as the next upper level trough arrives. In any case, temperatures are expected to remain well below the first half of the week.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak front will move through the region through Tuesday.
GOES satellite lightning mapper is detecting a lot of lightning 500 miles west Central California associated with the back edge of the front. Every model keeps any direct rain and thunderstorm action well north of San Luis Obispo County, but that is a very active area which is not that far away - will be keeping an eye on it. With ample low clouds on the Central Coast however, this front could rapidly lift the marine layer enough to enhance any drizzle or produce a bonafide light shower or two this morning or Tuesday morning. Otherwise, any affects from these fronts will be minimal.

The airmass will warm a bit on Wednesday after the front moves through, and some breezy northwest flow will form over the Sundowner and I-5 Corridor areas. This should help reset the marine layer to a more normal depth and coverage pattern - allowing a touch of warming with temperatures getting closer to normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...29/227 AM.

Another front will move down the West Coast Wednesday through Thursday, but again most every model fizzles it out by the time it reaches San Luis Obispo County. About 10-20% of them show some rain on the Central Coast Thursday morning. If it does rain it will be light with minimal impacts.

The low that is currently spinning off the Aleutian Islands, is expected to move little through Wednesday, then quickly get shoved towards the southeast and into Nevada by Friday. There is a range of placements of where that low will be on Friday, varying from west to east by about 100 miles. A more west track (smallest chance) could result in a few isolated showers over the area. A more east track (higher chance) would result in some gusty west to northwest winds on Friday, including the ocean and coastal areas.

Fairly benign conditions to follow over the weekend. Another low will be in the neighborhood early next week, with a lot of signals pointing to an inside slider track. As should be expected, there is a lot of uncertainty in terms of timing, track, and impacts - from high winds, showers and thunderstorms, or gusty north winds with moderate fire weather concerns. Stay tuned.

AVIATION
29/1557Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was based around 2000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5200 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs, but only low to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs 18Z-02Z. Timing of flight category changes in current TAF could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast.

MARINE
29/857 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in wind and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds around Point Concpetion. For Thursday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and seas across all the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Thursday through Friday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds Wednesday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 6 feet will impact the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing harbors. Starting Wednesday night, seas will build to 7 to 11 feet across the Outer Waters and nearshore waters north of Point Sal, and 5 to 8 feet across the Inner Waters south of Point Conception.

BEACHES
29/305 AM.

A moderately-long period southerly swell will last into Wednesday, generated by Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are expected to continue for south- facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central Coasts.
Additionally, particularly vulnerable south- facing beaches may see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas.

Based on yesterday's surf observations, a High Surf Advisory has been issued through Wednesday for the Malibu Coast, with surf of 5 to 8 feet again expected. A Beach Hazards Statement is still effect through Wednesday for all other south- facing beaches along the Central Coast (4-7 feet, local sets to 8 feet), Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (3-6 feet).

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 87-340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.