Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso de Robles (Paso Robles), CA

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...12/837 PM.

The latest satellite imagery indicates high pressure aloft over Baja California this evening and expanding the Sonoran Desert.
This high pressure system will slowly build into the region through the weekend in a typical late June pattern setup. The air mass will heat up away from the coast and into the interior portions of the area, while near the coast and beaches, onshore flow will keep low clouds and fog hugging the coast. More June Gloom looks on tap for the next several days at the beaches and immediate coastal locales. KLAX-KDAG surface pressure gradients are still progged to weaken slightly each day through Sunday as 500 mb heights climb and 1000-500 mb thickness values increase.
EPS solutions suggest the valley areas to start feeling more of the heat each day through Sunday which makes sense with onshore flow weakening some. The valleys will start to pop above normal starting on Friday or Saturday as less marine influence works its way into the valleys. EPS max temperature mean climb through the weekend at KPOC, KBUR, and KIZA. High temperatures for most valley areas could reach the mid 80s to mid 90s for most valley locations on Sunday with temperatures reaching or eclipsing the 100 degree mark in the hottest locations.

A weak disturbance over the north Central Pacific Ocean will move toward the West Coast through Monday and likely brush the area Monday. While the trough will likely serve to increase onshore flow along the Central Coast and across the Southland, a dying cold front north of the area will tighten the northerly pressure gradient across the state. Early model solutions suggest KSBA-KSMX surface pressure gradients to tighten to -4 to -5 mb on Sunday and Monday nights, while EPS ensemble members suggest high temperature means in the upper 80s for KSBA each day. ECMWF Extreme Forecast indices suggests the pattern to be stronger than CFSR period, while NAEFS wind anomalies suggest the coastal winds along the Central Coast and into southern Santa Barbara County to be greater than 99th percentile for CFSR period. Concern is growing for significant Sundowner wind event early next week bringing hot temperatures and gusty winds to southern Santa Barbara County.

An update to the forecast will be issued shortly.

***From Previous Discussion***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...12/229 PM.

There is some disagreement among the models for the upper level pattern starting on Monday next week and especially for Tuesday.
Overall the ensembles show many options for the development and speed of a weak trough of lower pressure that may impact the region. As a result, confidence in the temperature forecast early next week and especially on Tuesday is much lower than normal.
There is a chance for a cooler deep marine layer (June Gloom)
pattern, and there is also a chance for another significant warm spell. By Wednesday, models overall favor broad high pressure to the south of the region that would allow for temperatures to trend upwards, especially inland. There is a none-zero chance some of some heat products being needed somewhere in the Wednesday to Thursday time period for the warmest desert and valley areas.

AVIATION
13/0633Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 feet deep, with an inversion top at 3900 ft and a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs - flight cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgt by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgt by +/- 200 ft. There is a 30 percent chc no no SCT conds in the afternoon. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cig/vsby restriction arrivals this evening may vary by +/- 2 hours, and cig hgt by +/- 200 ft.

MARINE
12/810 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds will persist over the Outer Waters through at least early next week. A Gale Warning across all of the outer waters will continue through late tonight, with a 40-50 percent chance of being reissued for the Friday afternoon/overnight time frame. There is a 40-60 percent chance of GALES again across the Outer Waters Sunday night through Tuesday morning. This will likely be focused more so across the southern Outer Waters.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA level NW winds will persist through late tonight, and these winds will likely continue at times through Monday night.

Nearshore south of Point Conception, there is a 40% chance of SCA conditions across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon/evening hours, with similar chances late Saturday afternoon and evening. Chances will then increase Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with SCA gusts possibly spreading to the eastern sections of the SBA Channel by Monday afternoon.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for zones 376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).