Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Engelhard, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 132326 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 726 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure will remain over the Carolinas through the weekend. A weak cold front will stall over Eastern NC early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 720 PM Thurs . Scattered convection continues across the area, as well as offshore as a weak area of low pressure lingers right along the Crystal Coast. After this evening, expect the majority of storms to remain along the coast or offshore, and have decreased PoPs inland. Could still see some areas of localized flooding if some training of storms occur given high PWATs approaching 2.5". Temperatures overnight will remain in the low to mid 70s inland, and the upper 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM Thursday . Decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms again on Friday, although most high-res guidance doesn't show quite the coverage of today. Precipitable water values will still be well above normal, up to 2.5 inches, during the afternoon, so heavy downpours are possible. PoPs will still be in the likely range with highs mainly in the mid 80s with fairly widespread cloud cover as the surface low moves slowly north of the area into southern Virginia.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 245 PM Thu . Wet weather along with seasonable temperatures are expected through the period, as a closed low currently over the Mid-West moves east and evolves into an open wave over the southeast this weekend. Ample mid level troughing is then expected to develop over the Eastern US for much of next week as a strong northern stream upper trough moves across southern Canada and the US northern tier. At the surface, the typical Atlantic high/inland lee trough pattern will persist through late week, then a wavy cold front will move into NC and stall while a series of weak lows move along it, enhancing rainfall across the region. Several inches of rain will possible over this period with the potential for localized flooding.

The air mass across Eastern NC will be supportive of locally heavy rains with cyclonic flow, dewpoints in the 70s, PW values AOA 2" and sufficient instability. While timing individual rainfall events are still uncertain, will continue likely PoPs through the weekend with best chances during peak heating inland, then along the immediate coast overnights. Will cap PoPs at chance for early next week, but these may need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if current model trends continue.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Tomorrow Evening/ . As of 720 PM Thurs . A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are present this evening, and expect this to continue through early tonight with scattered thunderstorms and general cloudiness continuing. Then late tonight, a low stratus deck is expected to form and move south over the coastal plain and eventually to the US 17 corridor potentially impacting all TAF sites. Ceilings should lower to around 1000 ft initially, but then could reach as low as 300 ft into the early morning hours, and some patchy fog will also be possible. Then after mid morning, VFR conditions are expected to return, although there will be chances for thunderstorms once again.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/ . As of 2 PM Thu . Sub-VFR conditions will be more frequent through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during peak heating. The greater rainfall chances increases the likelihood of patchy early morning fog and/or stratus each morning.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 4 PM Thursday . Low pressure over inland eastern NC at late afternoon will very slow move north into southern Virginia tonight and Friday. Winds at late afternoon with winds E/SE over the northern waters and S/SSW over the southern waters. Winds are 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts at times over the central and southern waters. A few gusts, especially in convection, may reach or exceed 25 knots, but not frequent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Seas of 2-4 feet this evening, will build to 3-5 feet tonight and Friday.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/ . As of 245 PM Thu . Good boating conditions will continue through most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt Fri night, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt. A wavy cold front will move into the waters and stall over the weekend, making wind directions challenging. The front is currently forecast to move into the northern waters Sat, though some models keep it further north closer to the NC/VA border. Winds may shift to the NE/E across the northern waters but expected to remain SW across the central and southern waters. Increased winds a bit Friday night and Sat from previous forecast with some guidance showing stronger winds, 15-20 kt, developing ahead of the approaching front. Flow becomes pred S/SW 10-15 kt Sat night through Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through Sat then building to 3-5 ft late Sunday and Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SGK SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . CQD/SGK MARINE . CTC/CQD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	27 mi	75 min		76°F	86°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	35 mi	69 min		77°F	81°F
44095	38 mi	61 min			80°F	3 ft
44086	40 mi	44 min			76°F	3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	40 mi	69 min		76°F
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	41 mi	61 min			72°F	2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	48 mi	61 min			78°F	2 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	26 mi	62 min	S 11 G 18	5.00 mi	Light Rain	76°F	73°F	91%	1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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