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AMZ131 Alligator River- 658 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers early this evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves flat, increasing to light chop after midnight.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves flat, increasing to light chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon, then becoming sw. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 658 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the area tonight. A stronger cold front will move through Wed. High pressure will then build into the area through Sat.

FXUS62 KMHX 040244 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 944 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the area tonight. A stronger cold front will move through Wed. High pressure will then build into the area through Sat.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 945 PM Sun... The trend for slightly warmer temps and continued cloudiness continues this evening and as such have increased lows by 2-3 degrees across the CWA. Cold front is analyzed still to our west across the Triad area but will continue east and push off the coast late tonight. This should allow the high cloud cover currently over the area to finally begin to break up with clearing skies forecast towards daybreak.

Behind the front a NW flow of cooler/drier air will overspread the area though winds will continue to remain light. Tonight's lows will be cooler than the previous couple of nights though with increasing the lows this evening have upper 40s to low 50s inland and mid to upper 50s along the coast and OBX tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 945 PM Sun... No significant changes to the forecast for tomorrow as we still expect mo clear skies and light winds across ENC.

Prev Disc...It will be a little cooler but still mild to start the week. Expecting mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A few showers could try to develop to the west of the coastal plain as a surface trough moves through but think any shower activity should dissipate before reaching our area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 3 AM Sunday...

Monday - Tuesday...A mid-level trough will sweep across the Midwest causing a surface trough to traverse ENC overnight into Tuesday. This system looks dry with the only impacts on sensible weather being cooler temps and an uptick in winds.
Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s and at or just below 60 on Tuesday. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plain (near 50 at beaches).

Wednesday...Another mid-level trough will dig into the SECONUS early Wednesday. This system's cold front may support some showers along the beaches, but its passage will be felt more in terms of increased winds over the water and cooler overnight temps. Lows were decreased by a couple of degrees with this update and now sit near 30 inland (40 at beaches).

Thursday - Saturday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's FROPA and begins a warming trend that will last through the weekend (low 50s Thursday, low to mid 60s Saturday).

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 7 PM Sun... No real changes since the previous update as we are still expecting VFR conditions through the period.
Fairly thick high clouds are currently overhead the CWA this evening and should remain in place through late tonight out ahead of an approaching cold front. Once the cold front moves through around midnight, expect clearing skies late tonight from west to east as drier air moves overhead. These high clouds should preclude any fog threat even if winds briefly become calm early tonight as winds will once again become slightly elevated 5-10 kts near and behind the cold front. Mo clear skies and light winds are then forecast across the FA on Monday.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Pred VFR through the period. Showers are possible near the coast on Wednesday, but the FA should remain dry otherwise. As always, fog is possible each morning. The main feature of note are the gustier winds expected on Wednesday as a cold front passes. Winds will be NW 10-15 kt with 15-20 kt gusts. Closer to the water, gusts could be closer to 25 kt.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...The SW flow has picked up ahead of the cold front as expected to 10-20 kt over most of the waters and 15-25 kt over the outer southern and central waters where the SST's are warmer. This flow will continue until shortly after midnight when a cold front will cross the waters resulting in winds shifting to NW-N and diminishing to 10-15 kt late. Seas will build to 3-5 ft except to 4-6 ft over the outer waters in the stronger flow. Expect seas in this area to subside late tonight as winds diminish. On Mon winds over the northern waters will remain northerly around 10 kt but over the southern waters winds will back to the W and increase to 15-20 kt ahead of an approaching surface trough. Seas will be 2-3 ft over most of the waters but building to 3-5 ft late southern waters as winds increase.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...

As of 4 AM Sunday...

Monday - Tuesday...Monday night and Wednesday will both present SCA conditions. South of Cape Hatteras, NW winds will increase from 10 to 20+ kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. North of Cape Hatteras should remain in the 10-15 kt range with gusts to 20 kt. Seas will generally be 3-4 ft but build to 5 ft south of Ocracoke Inlet Monday night. Seas lay down to 2-3 ft on Tuesday as the winds become variable and relax to around 10 kt.

Wednesday...Seas and NW winds gradually increase overnight Tuesday through the early morning hours on Thursday. The peak will be Wednesday night when winds reach 25-30 kt across all marine zones with gusts to Gales (35-40 kt) for a few hours. Seas will peak late Wednesday night at 5-9 ft. Winds and seas will relax early Thursday morning and be back to 10-15 kt and 3-5 ft by the end of the day.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.

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Old House Channel
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Sun -- 12:15 AM EST     0.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:33 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:32 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

Davis Slough
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Sun -- 06:08 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:08 PM EST     0.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:03 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

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