Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:31 PM   Moonset 3:03 AM

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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 1252 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - N winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - N winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 303 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure to the north will shift offshore mid week with a cold front approaching late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 200551 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 151 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 145 AM Monday...THigh pressure ridging extends S'wards into the Carolinas in the wake of a S'ward moving cold front with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and a mid level trough to our south. High pressure ridging continues to build S'wards keeping the area dry. Given the close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across eastern portions of the FA.
As we near daybreak continued NE'rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There remains some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast for now but will have to monitor trends as the night progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 200 AM Monday...No major changes to the forecast at this time.

Previous Discussion
As of 330 PM Sunday
High pressure continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on continued NE'rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95.
More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR visibilities.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show widespread NE'rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30 kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and southern coastal waters SCA's that are out. Otherwise general trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to 10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday continued NE'rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid- Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while seas remain around 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154- 156.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ158.

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Davis Slough
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Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

Old House Channel
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Mon -- 01:38 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,