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AMZ131 Alligator River- 105 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
This afternoon..NW winds around 15 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves flat, increasing to light chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 105 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front beginning today, bringing fair weather back to enc though the rest of the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 111440 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 940 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the west through the rest of the week, bringing fair weather back to ENC.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 940 AM Mon...No significant changes needed for am update.
The cold front is now well offshore, with N to NW flow prevailing across the area. Winds remain gusty across the OBX, but the gradient will weaken quickly over the next few hours.
Clouds beginning to clear across the coastal plain.

Cold air advection on the back of breezy NW winds will be the name of the game today under increasing subsidence aloft.
Clear skies will prevail by the afternoon, but even full sunshine will be ineffective at providing much warming with highs around 10 deg below normal.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM Mon...High pressure will ridge in from the west stronger overnight, quickly weakening the gradient and bringing light to calm winds inland after sunset. This, in addition to clear skies, will make for favorable radiational cooling conditions with lows likely to get in to the upper 20s for spots away from the water, and a few lower to mid 20s possible for the most efficient radiational cooling spots. Fog is unlikely given the very cool airmass, but a little steam/ditch fog near moisture sources is possible given the widespread rainfall over the past 24 hrs.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 320 AM Mon...Upper level pattern trends zonal as upper trough digs into the western CONUS during the period. High pressure will be the dominant surface feature from Tuesday through the rest of the work week, punctuated by a dry reinforcing cold front traversing the area on Wednesday. No rain chances are expected and the front will be accompanied by little more than an increase in mid and high level cloud cover.
Temperatures will hover at or slightly below average into the weekend. With calm winds and clear skies on Tuesday night, pushed forecast on the coolest side of guidance with the expectation of excellent radiational cooling.

For the weekend, still keeping an eye on next area of low pressure forming in the Gulf and potentially lifting along the East Coast.
Still considerable variation among guidance, but signal has trended more towards a suppressed solution as high pressure remains entrenched across the Carolinas, keeping low and impactful weather more towards SC and areas south. Opted to lower PoPs from the previous forecast out of respect for this trend.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Mon...Breezy NW winds continue through the early morning ours, with drier air advecting in and gradually eroding ceilings from west to east through the mid to late morning. VFR prevails this afternoon with gradually diminishing NW flow. VFR continues tonight with a much drier and cooler airmass filling in, with only a very low chance of some shallow fog at PGV and EWN through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the week as strong cool high pressure remains in control over the Carolinas. Gusty northerly winds make a return on Wednesday as a reinforcing cold front sweeps across the area.
Nights with calmer winds will be ideal candidates for shallow radiational fog given freshly saturated soils from yesterday's soaking rains.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 940 AM Mon...Latest obs show NW-NNW winds 20-25 kt gusting to 30 kt with seas 7-10 ft north of Ocracoke and 5-8 ft south. Today will bring a gradually improving trend as high pressure begins to build in from the west and seas gradually fall as the southerly windswell diminishes. SCAs remain in place for the sounds/rivers into the afternoon and for the coastal waters into tomorrow. Tonight, the high ridges in stronger, with NW to N winds becoming moderate overnight. Seas will remain around 4-6 ft, with SCAs generally still needed for the coastal waters zones.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Mon...Two threats to watch in the medium range outside of otherwise benign boating conditions across the waters of eastern NC. Dry reinforcing cold front is expected to traverse the waters on Wednesday, bringing a surge of northerly winds Wed night into Thursday across all zones save for inland rivers with gusts up to 30 kt at times. After this front passes, attention turns to low pressure progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and lift into the western Atlantic over the weekend.
Magnitude of impacts is uncertain owing to model differences in timing and track, but there is a signal for at least increasing swell to intrude into the area from the south.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131- 135>137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-156- 158.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.

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Old House Channel
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Mon -- 12:49 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:51 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
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Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

Davis Slough
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Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EST     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:47 PM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

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