Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 1:42 PM   Moonset 1:58 AM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 343 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure briefly builds over area waters into Friday before a low pressure system brings unsettled weather this weekend, which will lead to another round of poor boating conditions developing early next week in the wake of the low.

FXUS62 KMHX 170852 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 452 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure briefly builds overhead to end the work-week with another unsettled weekend ahead with low pressure system impacting the area into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 300 AM Friday...Upper ridging continues to build in from the SW this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies and calm winds for much of mainland ENC. Sern and Wern zones currently forecast to see some patchy fog develop in the early morning hours with clearing skies and decoupling winds allowing decent rad cooling and ample SFC moisture from the rainfall we've had the last two days providing the fuel. Currently not expecting widespread dense fog, but select sheltered spots could see periods of dense fog. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s for beaches. High cirrus is moving in from the west, which will help keep temps from dropping any lower than the forecasted lows.

Ridging crests over the area Friday but shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers during the afternoon, generally along the seabreeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be meager with MUCAPE less than 1kJ/kg and the ridging aloft keeping kinematics less than impressive, in turn limiting any severe potential, however a rumble of thunder or two can't be ruled out. Area of highest moisture convergence and instability in the afternoon and evening Friday continues to be Duplin/Onslow/Jones/Lenoir counties as the sea breeze advances, highlighting this area for the greatest thunder potential. MaxTs a few ticks warmer than Thursday for inland zones, low 80s most. Cooler Ts expected along the coast where marine air will be felt as the seabreeze penetrates further inland than Thurs.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms will slowly move eastward through the short term while a sfc low approaches from our west. Severe potential and heaviest rainfall will be occuring through the day Saturday. See the long term discussion section for more information.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Saturday through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. An unstable environment will be in place ahead of the low with fcst CAPEs around 1500-2000 J/kg along with 40-50 kt 0-6km bulk shear that could provide support for strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the outlook to include a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of severe storms across areas south of the Pamlico River and continues a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) across the northern portion of the FA. The low will push offshore Saturday night with northerly flow ensuing as high pressure begins to ridge southward across the Mid-Atlantic bringing a more stable environment across the area, however the upper trough will slowly push across the area Sunday continuing to bring showers across the region. Beneficial rainfall is expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1-2" with locally higher amounts possible through the weekend.

Monday through Thursday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers early next week, especially along the coast, but otherwise expect dry conditions through Wednesday. Guidance is a bit slower with a mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaching the area which now looks to move across the area late Thursday, but moisture continues to appear limited with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 200 AM Friday...Shallow fog development has begun for OAJ, fluctuating between IFR and MVFR categories. Remainder of TAF terminals are currently VFR. Southern regions of the CWA (KOAJ) are where most of the rain has fallen over the past 2 days. The presence of ground moisture in this region and calm winds result in an increasing chance of fog formation through 12Z. OBX will be experiencing sub-VFR ceilings through the morning extending from the deepening low offshore. After fog subsides this morning, we have a slight chance of thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the sea breeze this afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 430 AM Friday...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday. Pred VFR conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 310 AM Friday...Seas are 2-3ft this morning, with winds generally northerly near 10 kts with the low spinning offshore.
Onslow Bay and Neuse river are more westerly, away from the influence of the low. Seas respond to winds Fri becoming 2-4ft from N to S, 3-5ft over outer central waters. Winds veer to become southeasterly through Friday night as a sfc low approaches from our west.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 445 AM Friday...A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop Sunday and continue through Monday with N to NE winds around 20-25 kt and seas building to 5-8 ft as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. Conditions gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday with seas expected to drop below 6 ft during the day Tuesday. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old House Channel
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Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 AM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:17 PM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

Roanoke Sound Channel
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Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT     0.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,