Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN
May 6, 2024 5:11 AM CDT (10:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 4:40 AM Moonset 6:13 PM |
FXUS64 KOHX 060700 AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 200 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Our active weather pattern continues. Currently, we're in between two rounds of storms during this overnight period. The first has moved into KY and the second is in West TN, headed this way. While no severe weather is expected with this second round, an isolated wind gust or two of 40 mph isn't out of the question. The bigger thing we're monitoring is the rainfall amounts. Over West TN, as these storms came out of the Memphis area, 0.75 to 1.5 inches has been noted in MRMS data. These numbers are possible in isolated areas of western Middle TN over the next few hours, but on the whole, everyone should get around an inch. Any training will lead to the higher numbers. Here's the problem: the last few runs of the HRRR have begun to hint at this round getting through the area by about 15Z, then a third wave may develop in West TN and cross the TN River by lunch time. If this does pan out, I'm a little worried about at least localized flash flooding for those who get both the second and third rounds of rains. Rainfall totals could be at 3 inches or better on top of already wet soils. We will need to monitor this closely -- especially for areas along and north of I-40.
For the lunchtime development, forecast soundings are fairly spring- like, but shear values are meager. Enough to support thunderstorms, but severe chances are negligible, at best. Rain chances may linger in the evening hours across the northern Cumberland Plateau, but most should be dry tonight.
That's just today and tonight! I haven't even gotten to the severe weather threats for Tuesday and Wednesday!
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Forecast soundings Tuesday and Wednesday continue to show some of the more impressive environmental conditions I've seen this spring.
CAPE will build into the 1500-2000 J/Kg range on Tuesday as temperatures climb into the low to mid-80s and dew points climb into the upper 60s, close to 70 degrees. Shear values improve on Tuesday and while they're not incredibly impressive, 40 kts of 0-6 km shear and ~200 SRH is nothing to sneeze at. However, on Tuesday, I don't see much of anything in the way of a focusing mechanism for lift -- at least in the models. Doesn't mean we can't get a outflow that pushes into Middle TN from upstream storms, but even with the impressive instability parameters, if we don't have some lifting mechanism, we may be hard-pressed for get much more than isolated storm development. For now, we'll carry a wind and hail threat for any storms that do develop on Tuesday.
Wednesday still looks like the better day for severe weather. Heat and moisture continue to build into the region leading to CAPE values potentially north of 3000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours.
Without a doubt, the highest values we've seen so far this spring.
While that's all fine and dandy, we may struggle during the afternoon to see anything that will provide lift. We'll have to refine the Wednesday afternoon forecast over the next couple of days, especially as we get into CAM range. However, as the associated front moves into the region Wednesday evening, even our global models are picking up on what looks to be a fairly intense line of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. While we'll lose some of the heating of the day, CAPE values manage to remain in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range and it's ahead of this line where shear values start to increase and lapse rates get sharp (7.5+). If this verifies, we'll be looking at all forms of severe weather being possible. Wind, large hail, tornadoes - and with PWs being in the 90th percentile - flash flooding, as well. There's plenty to fine tune over the next few days, so please be weather aware through the first half of this week.
After Wednesday night, it looks like we should get a break from this active pattern for at least a few days. Temperatures relax back into the 70s and our next rain chances may not come until the end of next weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Scattered showers and storms will likely affect the terminals off and on over the forecast period. Visibilities will be reduced to IFR/MVFR during pockets of heavy rain. In addition, cigs may temporarily be reduced to MVFR. The rain chances should taper off Monday evening for the remainder of the taf period. Winds will generally be out of the S/SW around 5-10 kts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 82 67 85 68 / 90 30 60 60 Clarksville 80 66 84 66 / 90 40 50 50 Crossville 76 61 79 63 / 90 60 50 70 Columbia 83 66 84 66 / 70 30 50 60 Cookeville 77 63 81 65 / 100 60 60 70 Jamestown 75 61 81 63 / 90 60 60 70 Lawrenceburg 82 66 83 67 / 60 20 50 60 Murfreesboro 83 65 84 66 / 90 30 50 60 Waverly 82 66 83 66 / 90 40 50 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 200 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Our active weather pattern continues. Currently, we're in between two rounds of storms during this overnight period. The first has moved into KY and the second is in West TN, headed this way. While no severe weather is expected with this second round, an isolated wind gust or two of 40 mph isn't out of the question. The bigger thing we're monitoring is the rainfall amounts. Over West TN, as these storms came out of the Memphis area, 0.75 to 1.5 inches has been noted in MRMS data. These numbers are possible in isolated areas of western Middle TN over the next few hours, but on the whole, everyone should get around an inch. Any training will lead to the higher numbers. Here's the problem: the last few runs of the HRRR have begun to hint at this round getting through the area by about 15Z, then a third wave may develop in West TN and cross the TN River by lunch time. If this does pan out, I'm a little worried about at least localized flash flooding for those who get both the second and third rounds of rains. Rainfall totals could be at 3 inches or better on top of already wet soils. We will need to monitor this closely -- especially for areas along and north of I-40.
For the lunchtime development, forecast soundings are fairly spring- like, but shear values are meager. Enough to support thunderstorms, but severe chances are negligible, at best. Rain chances may linger in the evening hours across the northern Cumberland Plateau, but most should be dry tonight.
That's just today and tonight! I haven't even gotten to the severe weather threats for Tuesday and Wednesday!
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Forecast soundings Tuesday and Wednesday continue to show some of the more impressive environmental conditions I've seen this spring.
CAPE will build into the 1500-2000 J/Kg range on Tuesday as temperatures climb into the low to mid-80s and dew points climb into the upper 60s, close to 70 degrees. Shear values improve on Tuesday and while they're not incredibly impressive, 40 kts of 0-6 km shear and ~200 SRH is nothing to sneeze at. However, on Tuesday, I don't see much of anything in the way of a focusing mechanism for lift -- at least in the models. Doesn't mean we can't get a outflow that pushes into Middle TN from upstream storms, but even with the impressive instability parameters, if we don't have some lifting mechanism, we may be hard-pressed for get much more than isolated storm development. For now, we'll carry a wind and hail threat for any storms that do develop on Tuesday.
Wednesday still looks like the better day for severe weather. Heat and moisture continue to build into the region leading to CAPE values potentially north of 3000 J/Kg during the afternoon hours.
Without a doubt, the highest values we've seen so far this spring.
While that's all fine and dandy, we may struggle during the afternoon to see anything that will provide lift. We'll have to refine the Wednesday afternoon forecast over the next couple of days, especially as we get into CAM range. However, as the associated front moves into the region Wednesday evening, even our global models are picking up on what looks to be a fairly intense line of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. While we'll lose some of the heating of the day, CAPE values manage to remain in the 1500-2000 J/Kg range and it's ahead of this line where shear values start to increase and lapse rates get sharp (7.5+). If this verifies, we'll be looking at all forms of severe weather being possible. Wind, large hail, tornadoes - and with PWs being in the 90th percentile - flash flooding, as well. There's plenty to fine tune over the next few days, so please be weather aware through the first half of this week.
After Wednesday night, it looks like we should get a break from this active pattern for at least a few days. Temperatures relax back into the 70s and our next rain chances may not come until the end of next weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Scattered showers and storms will likely affect the terminals off and on over the forecast period. Visibilities will be reduced to IFR/MVFR during pockets of heavy rain. In addition, cigs may temporarily be reduced to MVFR. The rain chances should taper off Monday evening for the remainder of the taf period. Winds will generally be out of the S/SW around 5-10 kts.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 82 67 85 68 / 90 30 60 60 Clarksville 80 66 84 66 / 90 40 50 50 Crossville 76 61 79 63 / 90 60 50 70 Columbia 83 66 84 66 / 70 30 50 60 Cookeville 77 63 81 65 / 100 60 60 70 Jamestown 75 61 81 63 / 90 60 60 70 Lawrenceburg 82 66 83 67 / 60 20 50 60 Murfreesboro 83 65 84 66 / 90 30 50 60 Waverly 82 66 83 66 / 90 40 50 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRNC WARREN COUNTY MEML,TN | 1 sm | 16 min | calm | 1/4 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Fog | 63°F | 63°F | 100% | 29.96 |
Northern Alabama,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE