Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:30 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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FXUS66 KHNX 181053 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 353 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024


KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through the weekend.

2. There is a chance for strong thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening.

3. Gusty westerly winds will develop across the Kern County mountains and desert each afternoon and evening with the strongest gusts expected on Sunday and Monday.

4. Temperatures will lower to around normal next week.

DISCUSSION
Maximum temperatures on Friday topped out around 3 to 7 degrees above climatological normals for this time of the year. An upper trough will gradually deepen over the west through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will nudge down but a bit this weekend but remain around 2 to 5 degrees above normal. Highs are forecast to lower to around normal on Monday followed by a slight uptick on Tuesday and Wednesday and then lowering back to near normal for Thursday and Friday. Here are probabilities for a high temperature of 88 degrees or higher for a few locations in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon.

Merced 46% Hanford 61% Madera 46% Visalia 61% Fresno 71% Porterville 51% Reedley 26% Delano 51% Lemoore 61% Bakersfield 61%

Moisture and instability are sufficient for a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening. Probabilities range from around 50 percent along the Sierra crest down to around 20 percent for the upper foothills.
Dry conditions are forecast on Sunday then a 10 percent chance for thunderstorms returns for Yosemite NP on Monday afternoon and evening.

Westerly winds will increase across the Kern County mountains and desert each afternoon and evening with the strongest gusts expected on Sunday and Monday. A Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of this area.

AVIATION
Areas of MVFR with local IFR in showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada from 18Z Sat through 06Z Sun. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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