Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday March 4, 2021 7:53 PM EST (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:17AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 050001 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 701 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry high pressure will set up through our area through Friday before a Gulf Coast low pressure system passes mostly south of the region Friday night into Saturday, with minimal chance for rainfall. Canadian high pressure builds back into the area Sunday, maintaining warm, dry conditions through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 700 PM: Region remains under northwesterly flow aloft with dry northerly to northwesterly surface winds. A weak pressure trough extends from surface low in Labrador down through the Southeast states. A very weak cold front will settle thru the area tonight, with the only real effect being dewpoints trending even lower behind it. Refreshed most of the near term grids with latest guidance in the last hour, although the forecast was on track and overall thinking remains the same. Lows tonight will be below normal owing to good radiational cooling conditions.

Winds decline on Friday as surface high center builds more towards the southeast CONUS. Reduced downslope and continued cool advection will reduce maximum temperatures and depth of mixing on Friday, with reduced high temperatures and less gusty conditions, though winds will remain from the NNW. Highs Friday look to be 10 degrees lower than what will be seen today. Late on Friday, clouds aloft will be increase in advance of the next synoptic system that will be advancing past the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Main near-term impact will be in the fire weather arena again on Friday. Today's GA Fire Danger Statement was allowed to expire at 7 PM this evening. See the fire weather discussion at the end of this product for more details.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 1255 PM Thursday . Our relatively dry weather should continue through the balance of the weekend as deep mid/upper trof remains in place along the East Coast, maintaining a NW flow aloft. Model guidance continues to show a short wave dropping down into the base of the trof late Friday night/early Saturday morning, but all indications are this feature will be somewhat moisture-starved. The GFS continues to develop some light precip Saturday morning over northeast GA, possibly in response to some low level convergence, but this still appears to be overdone. A dry fcst was inherited and the new fcst will remain dry. About the only effect will be an increase in cloudiness early Saturday, which has bumped up min temps a degree or two. The clouds move out by midday, followed by a reinforcing sfc high building in from the north through the rest of the period. Temps will generally remain 3-5 degrees on the cool side of normal owing to the upper pattern. The main lingering problem will be fire weather. See below.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 130 PM EST Thursday . still looking like an inactive pattern for the extended. By Sunday night, any forcing associated with the upper trough crossing New England will have shifted well out of our area, with attendant high pressure already building in at the surface. Throughout the day Monday, continuing north-northwesterly flow will induce weak CAA, which looks to be somewhat offset by downsloping flow off the Appalachians. This will have the added effect of keeping dry conditions through the day on Monday and raising another potential day of fire weather concerns.

Monday night or early Tuesday morning, winds will shift to southwesterly as the high pressure center passes to our east, and we'll enter a WAA regime. As Gulf moisture finally begins advecting into the region, RHs will slowly creep upward through the rest of the week, averting any continued fire weather threat. Nonetheless, skies should stay clear through Thursday and good insolation should push afternoon temps into the mid/upper 60s each day. By Thursday night, a cold front will be positioned to our north over the Ohio Valley, but looks to be stalling too far north to warrant any more than chance PoPs. For now, simply a feature to keep an eye on as models come into better agreement on what will happen.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR, with the only aviation concern being winds. Breezy conditions are ongoing in many parts of the area at issuance time with sustained winds 7-12 kt and in some cases gusts to over 20 kt. CAA will strengthen this evening in the low levels behind a weak cold front, but SKC will promote decoupling. The question is how long it takes for that to occur in light of the CAA. Thinking this should occur within the first few hrs of the TAF. Beyond that, winds will be fairly light, veering mostly to NE during the day Friday. KAVL is as usual an exception, holding onto gusts longer and staying NW-NNW thru the period. Cirrus will filter in ahead of a shortwave by Fri afternoon.

Outlook: A Gulf Coast low pressure system will likely pass south of the terminal area Friday night into Saturday, possibly bringing a few restrictions. Dry high pressure returns again for the remainder of the weekend into early next week, and VFR likely will prevail during that time.

Confidence Table .

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

FIRE WEATHER. Looking like minimum RH will end up below 25% in many areas again Friday with temps being lower but also drier dewpoints. Winds will be lighter, but fuels steadily drier, and we may need to consider another Fire Danger Statement for some areas. A weak upper system will cross the region early Saturday morning. A few sprinkles are possible over northeast GA and the western Upstate around daybreak, but even if they happen, amounts would only be a few hundredths at best. It is far likelier these locations will stay dry. Cloud cover may be extensive first thing in the morning, but will steadily clear out during the middle part of the day, allowing RH to once again mix down toward the mid-20-percents. How early the clouds move out may determine how much downward mixing of dry air occurs and how low the RH gets. Wind will be generally light and variable through much of Saturday over northeast GA, but should become light NW in the afternoon. Mixing will be a bit deeper Sunday, with RH a bit lower toward 20-25 percent, with wind remaining NW.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . Wimberley/WJM SHORT TERM . PM LONG TERM . MPR AVIATION . Wimberley FIRE WEATHER . PM/Wimberley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi58 minNW 410.00 miFair58°F22°F24%1015.9 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi60 minWNW 410.00 miFair58°F20°F23%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRN

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmW4W6S4CalmW5N3CalmW6N8NW12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmSW3SW3S3W3SW4SW4W3N4
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CalmNW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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