Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rutherford College, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:50PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 9:02 PM EST (02:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 9:26PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rutherford College, NC
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location: 35.75, -81.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 282348 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 648 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure system will cross Florida late Wednesday and Wednesday night, giving our area a chance for precipitation. Brief drying occurs again Thursday. Low pressure develops again to our south on Friday, bringing a chance of rain late Friday and early Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 645 pm: The low-amplitude upper trof will continue to gradually move farther east and offshore, as heights briefly recover tonight and early tomorrow. At the same time, another southern stream upper trof will move across the deep south and towards our area. By the end of the near-term period, the trof axis is expected to be just to our west and providing some degree of upper-lvl divergence over the CWFA. At the sfc, weak high pressure will linger over the area for most of the period keeping things dry and seasonal. Tomorrow, a fairly weak low pressure system will move eastward along the Northern Gulf Coast and towards Florida. By the end of the period 00z Thursday, the low is expected to be centered due south of our area with deep-lyr moisture over the region. There's a decent chance for some light precip over our western zones after roughly 18z tomorrow with PoPs still capped at slight chance over our eastern zones thru 00z Thurs. Any QPF should be minimal and it should all be liquid. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight and tomorrow as the low approaches the region from the SW. Expect to see bkn cigs in the low-VFR range by noon or so tomorrow over the western half of the CWFA and bkn to ovc cloud cover over all zones by tomorrow evening. Low temps should remain a few degrees above normal overnight/tomorrow morning, with high temps topping out right around normal tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 1228 PM Tuesday . not much change in the new model guidance, with decent consensus noted and the same slow trend toward less of a concern for significant wintry weather over the mtns. A shearing and dampening mid/upper wave in the srn stream is still expected to move past our area Wednesday night with only the weakest of isentropic upglide or upslope flow, thus it continues to look like most all the support for light precip will come from the weak mid/upper forcing. The curious thing is the upper system passing over the Midwest/central Appalachians early Thursday. Ordinarily, this might be expected to really enhance a W/NW flow precip event along the TN border, but in this case the W/NW upslope flow is nearly nonexistent. That as much as anything will keep the precip amounts in check and thus keep us from needing a high elevation advisory for snow. As for precip type, it very much looks like an elevation-dependent rain v. snow scenario. The new guidance suggests a snow level around 3-3.5k ft, so perhaps a bit more of the mtns might see some snow Wednesday night. We still expect the light precip over the mtns to taper off midday Thursday in the absence of good low level forcing. Thereafter, a quickly progressive upper pattern will carry an upper ridge overhead Thursday night with sfc high pressure ridging down from the north. Think the moisture associated with the next srn stream system will not reach us before daybreak Friday. Min temps will be a category above normal and max temps near normal because of cloud cover.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 213 PM Tuesday . the medium range still looks progressively busy as the southern stream remains active all the way out past Day 7. We have two weather systems to deal with. The model guidance has been slowly building some consensus with the first system slowly organizing over the nrn Gulf on Friday and then inducing cyclogenesis off the southeast coast Friday night. As it stands right now, this one looks like something of a "near miss" as our access to cold air remains poor, meaning that most locations with the exception of elevations above 5k feet will be rain for almost the entire event. Once the low passes, snow levels will fall and we stand a decent chance of accumulating snow near the TN border in the NW flow. Several inches of snow would not be out of the realm of possibilities on the peaks and ridges above 5k feet, but unless we can conjure up more cold air, the event would me mainly rain. As for the particulars in the fcst, moisture and forcing increase from the S/SW on Friday and then maximize Friday night and Saturday morning as the low slowly develops during its passage. A likely probability over the eastern zones will suffice for the time being. Temps will keep a low diurnal range but supportive of mostly rain/very high elevation snow.

We dry out Sunday morning and then enjoy a fairly high amplitude upper ridge passing overhead early next week. That will support high pressure moving overhead with temps rebounding well above normal for Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the next system may take shape over the srn Plains. The guidance agrees with a broad upper ridge over the wrn Atlantic and upper trof slowly moving out over the Plains Monday night and Tuesday that will keep a warm SW flow aloft. Always hard to pin down the arrival time of deeper moisture and precip in these situations, probably some time late in the fcst period, but suffice to say right now it looks way too warm for anything other than rain, even over the mountains.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period, with cloud cover expected to primarily limited to increasing mid-level clouds, although SCT/BKN clouds in the 040-050 range may be observed later tonight into Wed morning. Winds will generally be light/vrbl to begin the period, but are expected to become NE at around 5 kts by daybreak at most terminals, turning toward the E during the afternoon. Chances for -RA increase during the outlook period, warranting a Prob30 mention at some sites.

Outlook: A weak low pressure system may bring brief precipitation and associated restrictions late Wednesday into early Thursday, with clearing by late Thursday. Another low pressure system will likely bring restrictions to the area over the weekend.

Confidence Table .

23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% Low 59% Low 54% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . JDL/JPT SHORT TERM . PM LONG TERM . PM AVIATION . JDL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morganton-Lenoir Airport, NC6 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair37°F29°F76%1016.9 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC9 mi70 minN 410.00 miFair43°F28°F58%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRN

Wind History from MRN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N3W6W5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSE4CalmCalmN3N6CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW6SW6
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW7W8SW8W9W6NW9NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.