Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Creswell, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:22PM Friday January 22, 2021 9:47 AM EST (14:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 923 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming n. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
AMZ200 600 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A frontal boundary will drop south of the waters this morning, while a wave of low pressure spreads rain across the ne sc waters. Gusty nw and N winds can be expected late today through early Saturday as high pressure builds in. Another system will cross the area Monday into Tuesday with advisory conditions expected in building seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Creswell, NC
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location: 35.8, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 221202 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 702 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A dry cold front will cross the area late tonight, with strong high pressure building across the mid Atlantic for the weekend. A complex low pressure system will impact the area early next week, followed by another stronger system late in the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 700 AM Fri . Surface trough has now pushed offshore with widespread Tds in the 30s across the area. Forecast in good shape with no changes needed.

Prev disc . Deep moisture streaming out of the eastern Pacific this morning is resulting in widespread cirrus over the southeastern CONUS ahead of a weak shortwave digging into the Rio Grande Valley. National radar mosaic shows a large precip shield from roughly SE TX into SC on the cool side of a stalled stationary boundary draped over the area. For eastern NC the front is well offshore with offshore flow at about 5- 10 kt along the coast, keeping temperatures here relatively steady in the low to mid 40s. There is a stark moisture gradient associated with a surface trough across the CWA this morning; Tds are in the 40s south of a line from Oregon Inlet to Jacksonville, with 30s to the north.

Benign weather expected today as deeper moisture remains to our south and surface trough swings south through the morning, ushering in lower dew points with Canadian high pressure building in from the northwest. Cirrus coverage gradually wanes through the day as the shortwave races eastward and kicks out the H5 moisture pool. West to northwesterly winds in the morning will back to the southwest as a secondary front associated with the surface high approaches the area. Low-level thicknesses point to highs in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM Fri . The front will cross the CWA around midnight with winds veering northwesterly and dew points dropping precipitously into the 20s as dry high pressure establishes itself over the eastern half of the CONUS. We'll have clear skies but persistent (albeit light) northerly winds should keep temperatures from bottoming out too quickly tonight. Regardless, temps will be about 10 degrees cooler than with lows ending up at or just below freezing. A few 20s aren't out of the question in well shaded spots.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 300 AM Fri . Dry weather is expected through the weekend, with below normal temps this weekend. Then, a fairly complex storm system will move over the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing the potential for rain and gusty winds. Then high pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday, with another, stronger storm expected to impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

Saturday through and Sunday . A dry cold front will push through the area early Saturday morning, bringing in colder air for this weekend. Expect CAA to increase through the day, and continue into Sunday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 40s both days ranging from the low 40s across NE NC, to the upper 40s across Duplin and Onslow counties. Very cold lows are expected Saturday night, as CAA eases enough for some decent radiational cooling to take place. Have lows down into the low to mid 20s inland, and the upper 20s to low 30s across the coast.

Monday through Wednesday . High pressure will shift offshore early Monday morning, as a complex low pressure system moves out of the lower Mississippi Valley. A warm front, with possible weak wave along it, will move over the area Monday morning through the afternoon, as the parent low tracks into the Ohio Valley. Expect very good coverage of rain most of the day Monday due to isentropic lift, and have increased PoPs to categorical. Late Monday, precip will become more scattered in the warm sector, until a new triple point area of low pressure strengthens along the NC/VA border and tracks to the east. Best chances for rain Monday night will therefore be along the northern tier and over to the NOBX, until the cold front pushes across the area Tuesday, bringing another round of showers to most areas. Since the area will be in the warm sector, we will see temps reaching the 50s to low 60s on Monday, and then 60s to almost 70s on Tuesday. Behind this system Tuesday night, temps will crash into the 30s, with highs only in the 40s expected on Wednesday with high pressure building in.

Wednesday Night and Thursday . There is modest, but increasing confidence that another area of low pressure will move into the region Wednesday night, and then deepen rapidly off the NC coast on Thursday. Model solutions have up until now, been wildly erratic, however the latest 00z cycle of the ECMWF and GFS (and others), have come into much better agreement showing a potential bomb cyclone somewhere off the NC coast. The location of this low will be critical to determining impacts to the area, which could possibly include snow, heavy rain, very strong winds, and coastal flooding. The evolution of this system will be closely monitored.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/ . As of 700 AM Fri . Widespread cirrus continues over the terminals this morning with light winds out of the west. High clouds will remain through 18z before gradually scattering out as upper level disturbance quickly exits the region tonight. Dry front moves through after 00z tonight, veering winds from W to NW at around 5 kt. Proceeding air mass much too dry to support fog formation.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 330 AM Fri . VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning with high pressure and mostly dry weather over the airspace. A large storm system will move into the area on Monday into Tuesday, with sub-VFR conditions likely at times.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 700 AM Fri . Seas and winds are settling below criteria for the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet, while Diamond Shoals continues to report 7-8 foot seas. No changes to the existing advisory suite.

Prev disc . Difficult marine forecast this morning. Sounds and rivers, along with immediate coastal locales, are seeing westerly winds at around 10-15 kt. Over the Gulf Stream thanks to better mixing winds are around 20-25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt. Thus, while seas close to shore have been around 3-4 feet, buoys 20+ nm out are observing waves of 6-8 feet.

Most wave guidance has a remarkably poor handle on this. ECMWF wave guidance has been the closest but is still underdone by about a foot or so for the Gulf Stream. Manually adjusted wave heights upward through 12z closer in line with ECMWF guidance. Consequently, this requires the existing SCA to be extended through sunrise south of Ocracoke Inlet and through 15z north to Cape Hatteras.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 330 AM Fri . Small craft conditions are likely Saturday behind a dry cold front with winds NNW 15-25 kts, and seas 4-6 ft. NNW slowly subside Saturday night, with winds becoming NW around 10 kts Sunday, and seas 2-4 ft. Then, as a warm front crosses the area Monday, winds will increase to S/SW 15-25 kts, and then further strengthening to 25-30 kts Monday night, with seas building to 6-12 ft late. Winds will subside slightly on Tuesday, but remain W 15-25 kts, with seas remaining elevated.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . SGK AVIATION . SGK/MS MARINE . SGK/MS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 44 mi53 min W 13 G 18 46°F 1011.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 46 mi51 min 47°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi53 min W 7 G 8.9 43°F 48°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC18 mi52 minW 610.00 miFair47°F36°F64%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEDE

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:03 AM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:14 PM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:23 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.62.82.72.31.81.30.80.60.50.81.21.72.12.32.21.91.50.90.50.20.30.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:14 AM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:22 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:28 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.72.92.92.62.21.61.10.80.70.91.21.72.12.32.32.11.71.20.70.40.40.71.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.