Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Creswell, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 945 PM Tue...

- Renewed surge of cold air begins to arrive tonight

No significant changes needed to previous forecast for late eve update. As of early this eve, we are solidly in the post- frontal airmass that has enveloped much of the eastern seaboard.
Within this airmass, satellite imagery shows clouds increasing from west to east. This is associated with a potent upper level shortwave that is digging southeast out of the Upper Midwest.
This wave is forecast to reach the Southeast U.S. by tonight. At the surface, a reinforcing surge of CAA is ongoing across the Ohio Valley, and is tied to a SFC trough/cold front. The SFC trough/cold front is forecast to move through ENC overnight.
While CAA will be strengthening, increasing low- mid level moisture advection is expected to support increasing clouds through the night. Additionally, a tightening pressure gradient behind the SFC boundary should support a bump up in northerly winds. Despite increasing CAA, the net effect on temps tonight is that lows will most likely end up a bit higher compared to last night due to increased cloudcover and higher winds.

Radar shows light returns to the N and W late this evening, with some obs reporting sprinkles and light rain. Increasing moisture tonight combined with modest low-mid level frontogenesis may support areas of light rain or sprinkles, especially after midnight. However, the lack of stronger lift should limit rainfall amounts and intensity.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

- Unusually chilly temperatures Wednesday

- Confidence increasing in a period of light to moderate rain along the OBX Wednesday-Wednesday night

An unusually strong upper level shortwave will shift off the Southeast U.S. coastline on Wednesday, supporting an increased risk of SFC cyclogenesis off the Mid-Atlantic Coast later Wednesday into Wednesday night. From a pattern recognition standpoint, the upper level pattern appears to favor coastal low development further offshore. However, it should be noted that 12z guidance has trended a bit west with where a coastal low may develop. While the greatest lift and moisture looks to be focused offshore, there is enough support for a quick round of light to moderate rain along the Outer Banks in the wraparound area of the developing coastal low. The envelope of possibilities with this system is still fairly wide at this point, however there appears to be 2 main scenarios that guidance falls in.

1) The coastal low develops further offshore, with little to no precip across ENC, and not-as-strong northerly winds

2) The coastal low develops closer to the coast, leading to a period of moderate rain along the Outer Banks with 1-2" of rain (much less further inland). This scenario also favors stronger northerly winds (30-35+ mph) along the OBX.

Regardless of which scenario pans out, increased cloud cover plus unusually cold low-level thicknesses appears supportive of record, or near-record, cool highs. The one caveat is that late- day clearing may allow a late-day rally, of sorts, with temps.
The bottom line, though, is that highs are forecast to be well below normal for mid- October. The cold airmass will translate into well below normal temps Wednesday night, likely supporting the first night of widespread 30s. The one caveat Wednesday night is the potential for winds to remain up some, especially along the coast, and lows may not tank as much as they otherwise could. The wind, even if light, should also keep the risk of frost lower, and mainly confined to sheltered areas. Along the coast, lingering cloudcover and breezy winds should keep temps well into the 40s or low 50s, especially along the OBX.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM Tue...Ridging eventually becomes centered over the Eastern Seaboard late in the week and moves little into early next week continuing to bring fair weather and dry conditions to eastern North Carolina.

Thursday...A shortwave will eventually become a cutoff mid level low along the VA/NC vicinity Wed evening before pushing out to sea on Thurs. In response to this, surface cyclogenesis will occur just offshore the North Carolina coast with this surface low deepening rapidly as it tracks away from the area on Thurs.

As we get into Wed night and the mid level shortwave develops into a cutoff low, expect a surface low to develop just off our coast wrapping moisture into the OBX and immediate coast keeping at least SChc to Chc PoP's in play into at least Thurs as this low deepens and gradually pushes further into the Atlantic. High temps only get into the upper 50s to low 60s Wed/Thurs given cloud cover and NE'rly breeze while lows may have a significant gradient especially Wed night with inland areas seeing upper 30s to low 40s and areas along the OBX seeing lows in the 50s.

Friday into early next week...Upper troughing pushes offshore and begins moving away from the area on Fri as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. At the surface high pressure becomes centered over the Eastern Seaboard on Fri and moves little into early next week keeping things dry across ENC. Temps will gradually moderate through the weekend back to normal with even some above normal temps possible by early next week as low level thicknesses creep up during this timeframe.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 945 PM Tue...

- MVFR CIGs possible late tonight-Wednesday (20-40% chance)

A surface boundary/cold front will move through ENC tonight, leading to a bump up in northerly winds after 06z. Increasing mid-level clouds are expected to accompany the front, and linger into Wednesday. The potential exists for a period of 2500-3500ft CIGs late tonight into Wednesday. However, guidance continues to back off on this potential, and will continue to keep the TAFs VFR for now, but showing the potential with a FEW/SCT 2500ft layer. Along the Outer Banks, there will be an increased risk of sub- VFR conditions and RA, especially just beyond 00z Thu.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...A period of sub-VFR conditions is possible on Wed into Thurs across ENC as a potent shortwave moves across the area bringing a threat for low clouds and light shower activity. By Thursday afternoon and beyond expect primarily VFR conditions with a steady N-NE'rly breeze as high pressure settles in from the west.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wed night/...
As of 945 PM Tue...

- Coastal low to bring elevated winds and seas mid-week

Latest obs show light winds 10 kt or less with seas 2-3 ft.
Winds will become northerly and increase to 10-20 kt late tonight as a cold front moves through the waters. On Wednesday, a coastal low is forecast to develop along this front, leading to a further increase in northerly winds to 15- 25kt, with gusts of 25-30kt. Some of the higher end guidance suggests a few gusts as high as 30-35kt over the central and northern coastal waters, depending on how strong the low gets, and how close to shore it forms. For now, we'll plan to go with SCA headlines for most waters to account for the strengthening northerly winds through mid-week. Stay tuned in case the risk of gales increases. With the increase in winds will come building seas.
Prior to that, 2-3 ft seas today will build to 3-5ft by Wednesday afternoon. Seas will further build to 4-6 ft by Wednesday night, especially north of Cape Lookout. South of Cape Lookout, especially near- shore, seas look to hold in the 2-4 ft range.

As the coastal low develops, there will be an increased risk of rain and reduced visibility later Wednesday into Wednesday night, especially across the northern and central coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...As we get into Thurs, surface low will develop off our coast and deepen as it tracks NE'wards this will keep 15-20 kt N'rly winds with 25+ kt gusts over our waters through Thurs before winds ease overnight as high pressure builds in from the west and the pressure gradient relaxes.
Forecasting N'rly winds at 10-15 kts with gusts around 15-20 kts from Fri through the weekend. Given the potential for a deepening low off our coast this weekend seas along our coastal waters might remain elevated into Sun as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 130 PM Tuesday...No significant changes to the forecast as minor coastal flooding will be possible late week into this weekend with high astronomical tides forecast. We'll also be monitoring forecast trends regarding the development of a coastal low offshore, and what, if any, impact this has on water levels and coastal impacts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ158.