Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:59AM||Sunset 6:35PM||Thursday March 4, 2021 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 10:27AM||Illumination 62%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Louisville, TNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMRX 042324 AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 624 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021
UPDATE. FOR 00Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM. (Tonight and Friday) .
Surface high pressure continues to bring tranquil weather conditions to the region with temperatures above seasonal normals Aloft. a ridge axis extends through the plains with troughing across the northeast. This places the region under northwest flow aloft through the short term period.
For tonight . quiet weather continues with generally light winds and clear skies. North winds will continue to advect lower dewpoints so went a degree or two below NBM guidance for overnight lows. Lows in the mid to upper 20's are expected across southwest Virginia, extreme northeast Tennessee, and the high terrain of the East Tennessee mountains. Areas in the central and southern valley will see overnight lows in the low to mid 30's.
On Friday, weak shortwave ridging develops across the Tennessee valley as a disturbance moves into the central plains. This will bring continued dry weather with only an increase in mid/upper level cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow but still near or slightly below normal. Low RH values are again a concern with minimum RH expected to fall between 20-30 percent in the afternoon.
LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Thursday) .
Dry weather will prevail for the weekend and much of next week with chances for rain by Thursday. Temperatures are generally below normal for the weekend with a warming trend to above normal next week, possibly in the lower 70s for many by Thursday.
Friday Night through Monday
At the start of the period, surface high pressure will be dominating across the Great Lakes and Northern Tier with a large mid/upper ridge to the west. Troughing will be in place across the northeast with a positively tilted shortwave/weak surface low near the southern Mississippi Valley. This system phases with norththeastern troughing at the start of the period. With the associated jet streak and low-level moisture expected to stay well to our south, no precipitation is expected. The result will only be an increase in cloud cover early in the weekend. Continued northerly flow at the surface comes with upper-level height falls, resulting negative thermal (1,000-500mb thickness) advection. This pattern keeps the weekend dry and seasonally cool with notably cold temperatures by Saturday night, likely in the 20s for many. On the topic of fire weather, efficient daytime mixing will provide continued opportunities for low RH's, possibly falling well into 20% range in many locations. While weak low-level flow/MSLP gradient will likely limit wind speeds, multiple preceding days with similar conditions do increase concerns for fire danger. As is typical, however, higher wind speeds are expected in the mountains, possibly near 20 mph.
Heading into Monday, strong ~1,035mb high pressure is nearly centered over the area, promoting continued subsidence. With northeastern troughing moving off to the east, significant height rises start the week's warming trend. While winds will largely be very light during the day, potential exists for possibly even lower RH values than during the weekend. Accordingly, heightened fire danger remains, especially in high elevation areas of the mountains.
Tuesday through Thursday
By mid-week, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with an ensemble and deterministic consensus for 500mb height anomalies of +10 to +20 dam locally. With the surface high moving off to the east, the combination of southerly flow and positive thickness/thermal advection will continue the warming trend throughout the week. By the end of the period, confidence is increasing for daytime temperatures to reach into the lower 70s across most lower elevation areas. Also, a developing system in the Great Plains mid-week will move into the eastern U.S., bringing chances for rain at the end of the period. Confidence remains limited in the track/strength of the system with the latest GEFS members still suggesting a normalized spread of near 1.0 or above. Ultimately, low-end PoPs were utilized at the end of the period with the overall track/jet pattern, as of this forecast issuance, keeping potential for more persistent rainfall and/or organized convection well to our north and west.
AVIATION. 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Breezy conditions are expected to continue until shortly after sunset when the winds should decouple from the surface. VFR conditions are expected overnight and tomorrow with a few mid level clouds expected to move in.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 58 37 56 32 / 0 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 52 32 52 29 / 0 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 31 54 32 53 29 / 0 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 49 27 49 25 / 0 0 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN||4 mi||28 min||N 7||10.00 mi||Fair||58°F||26°F||29%||1017.6 hPa|
|Oak Ridge, TN||17 mi||28 min||N 4||10.00 mi||Fair||58°F||26°F||29%||1018.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTYS
Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||NE||Calm||N||NW||W||E||S||S||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||SE||NE||Calm||NE |
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off)  Help
EDIT (on/off)  Help
Weather Map(on/off)  Help Weather Map
GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: GEOS-West Contential US Full GOES-East
Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.