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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Louisville, TN

June 25, 2024 10:17 AM EDT (14:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM
Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 9:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Louisville, TN
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Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
194 FXUS64 KMRX 251101 AAA AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 701 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Key Message

1. Hot and dry persists.

Discussion:

Rather benign weather pattern to start off. Light and variable winds and extremely dry atmosphere are expected the next 24 hours.
Forecast soundings illustrate just how dry it is, however, some meager moistening will occur overnight into Wednesday. PW values generally increase approximately a half inch ahead of the next storm system. Continue to practice heat safety.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Decent rain chances in the forecast for Wednesday evening and again on Sunday. Admittedly, doesn`t look like a slam dunk though.

2. Otherwise, continued hot and dry conditions in large part.

Discussion:

A shortwave trough will move eastward through the Great Lakes and Ohio valley during the day Wednesday, eventually pushing a front through our area late Wed evening into Wed night. Expect continued warm temperatures during the day Wed as rainfall and significant increases in cloud cover will hold off until after peak heating.
Speaking of rain, it`s kind of an interesting scenario with this front. Guidance shows some sort of MCS activity on the western/southern end of the front diving south from the midwest into the lower Mississippi river valley while another organized batch of convection follows the upper trough and associated H3 jet streak eastward from the Ohio valley Wed afternoon and evening. Currently have high PoPs in the forecast for Wed evening as the front moves in, but this time period is within sight of some CAM guidance, including all the members of the 00z SPC HRRR and there`s a suggestion by some that we could get left in a gap in rainfall.
While the front and convection will be moving into a hot and dry air mass, it seems unlikely we`ll get no rain. Will keep PoPs as is, but I could see a scenario where we have less coverage than perhaps the high PoPs would suggest.

Thursday looks dry, with a slight cooldown and break from the humidity as drier air moves in. That`s short lived however as ridging builds in from the southwest by Friday morning, while low pressure develops over the northern plains. With the surface high and H85 ridge to our east, and the northern plains low developing, southwest flow will send temperatures back into the low to mid 90s for Friday into the weekend. The aforementioned northern plains low will move east through the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, pushing another front our direction by Saturday night into Sunday. Stuck generally close to NBM guidance for temperatures and rain chances during this time, but cut back the dewpoints a significant amount as the NBM guidance seems unreasonably high. This is another interesting forecast period. NBM is forecasting dewpoints that are essentially record values, along with widespread showers and thunderstorms and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s Sunday.
Something likely has to give here as it seems hard to imagine all three of those occurring. Since we`ve been rather hot and dry of late (less moisture to evaporate from the ground) chose to knock down the dewpoints a bit and stay close to the NBM highs and PoPs.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions, with winds less than 5kt, are expected through the period as the region remains beneath the influence of high pressure.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 72 99 74 / 0 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 69 96 71 / 0 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 93 69 96 70 / 0 0 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 65 94 69 / 0 0 30 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN 3 sm24 minvar 0310 smClear75°F63°F65%30.03
KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN 14 sm22 mincalm10 smClear75°F64°F69%30.03
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Wind History graph: TYS
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,




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