Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamston, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 051732 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1232 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually build over the area though Thursday. The next cold front crosses Friday night with high pressure rebuilding over the area this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 955 AM Thu . Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. slowly expanding northeast over the Carolinas with mainly clear skies. Temps have been rising faster than expected this morning so nudged hourly temps up and bumped up highs a couple of degrees as well. Otherwise still looks like a quiet day overall with no other major changes needed.

Prev disc . Sfc high pressure gradually building in from the SW, while the persistent mid/upper level trough will finally be off the East coast allowing for height levels to rise and allow for deep NW flow. Expect another quiet day in weather with sunny skies and breezy conditions through the late afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower than yesterday as CAA filters in, so expect highs in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 230 AM Thurs . Quiet weather continues as the center of the high while become overhead. Expect mostly clear skies and winds are forecasted to decouple . allowing for great radiational cooling. Went below guidance for the overnight temperatures due to clear and calm skies, therefore expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s inland and around 40 degrees along the Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 3 AM Thursday . A weak system with limited moisture may produce a few coastal showers Friday night and early Saturday. More unsettled weather is likely for early next week as deep moisture returns ahead of a strong cold front.

Friday Night . A fast-moving front, with limited moisture, will cross the area Friday night into early Saturday morning. The best chance of measurable rainfall continues to be near the coast and will continue to carry chance PoPs for this area.

Saturday through Sunday . Strong high pressure will pass to our north Saturday into Sunday with cooler temperatures in the low/mid 50s accompanied by gusty north winds. Rather chilly Saturday night as winds diminish inland, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower 30s, ranging to the lower 40s Outer Banks. With the high moving east of the area Sunday, winds veer to E/ESE with temperatures moderating to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday Night through Wednesday . The combination of a deepening mid-level trough, mid-level shortwave energy and precipitable water values that will increase to 1.25 inches or better will lead to a more unsettled weather pattern with better chance of showers Sunday night and then off and on through midday Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Per trends in guidance, the highest QPF and PoPs will be Sunday night and again Tuesday night. With the more southerly flow, high temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday. Highs Monday will be well into the 60s with a few lower 70s possible Tuesday. The strong cold front arrives Wednesday afternoon with quickly dropping temperatures, setting up widespread lows near or below freezing by Thursday morning.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through 06Z Friday/ . As of 1230 PM Thurs . High confidence in VFR through the period with high pressure continuing to gradually build from the southwest today, then settling overhead by Friday morning. Gusty conditions expected for the next few hours before winds rapidly calm down with decoupling. Dew point depressions should remain high enough tonight to preclude the threat of patchy fog.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/ . As of 325 AM Thursday . There will be a short window for potential sub-VFR conditions in scattered showers late Friday into Friday night with a fast-moving front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday through Sunday as strong high pressure moves north of the region. Another round of showers expected Sunday night/Monday, which will be fairly widespread, and may produce sub-VFR ceilings during this period.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 1000 AM Thu . After a brief period of gale force gusts earlier this morning winds have subsided somewhat over the outer central waters, and thus allowed the Gale Warning to expire. SCA conditions continue into the late afternoon before ending tonight as high pressure shifts over the waters.

Prev disc . The latest buoy observations are showing mostly a NW 15-25 knots and seas 2-4 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 4-6 ft south. Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters and sounds, except for the central waters where a Gale Warning is in effect. Looking at the latest Hi-Res models, winds are expected to increase around 7 AM with seas building quickly in responds to the increase of winds. Expect W/NW winds 20-30 knots around sunrise, then diminishing to 15-20 knots this afternoon, followed by 5-10 knots after midnight. Seas will peak 4-7 ft mid morning, then subside to 2-4 ft tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/ . As of 335 AM Thursday . A strong CAA surge of NW/N winds is expected Friday evening into Saturday with gusts up to 30 knots. Per latest wave models, seas will generally not respond as much as usual with peak waves right around 5 feet. Winds veer to E/ESE Sunday night into Monday as the high moves off to the northeast and a strong cold front approaches. Winds of 15-20 knots are likely with seas building to 5-8 feet by Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories will be likely for this period.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . BM/MS SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . CTC AVIATION . CTC/MS MARINE . CTC/BM/MS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	75 mi	46 min	WNW 12 G 19	50°F			1015.2 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	77 mi	46 min			54°F	3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA	78 mi	52 min	WNW 7 G 17	51°F	50°F		1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC	17 mi	21 min	WNW 7 G 14	10.00 mi	Fair	55°F	24°F	30%	1017.3 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC	21 mi	21 min	WNW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	55°F	23°F	28%	1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)

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W11 G16

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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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