Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamston, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 291027 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 627 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Offshore high pressure will continue through tonight. A weak cold front will approach Friday, lingering over the area through the weekend. A much more active period emerges early to mid next week as several waves of low pressure traverse the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 625 AM Thu . No signif changes planned, so far fog has been quite limited despite clear/calm conditions.

Prev disc . Quiet weather today with subsidence over the region in wake of upr trf. Some low clouds and fog early will quickly erode with msunny skies expected. Temps shld rise into the 90 to 95 dgr range inland upr 80s/around 90 beaches. The organized convection that crossed last evening really lowered the dewpts over the main-land areas. The trend for lower dewpts conts today with inland areas staying cpl dgrs either side of 70 which will keep heat index values well below advisory lvls.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. As of 245 AM Thu . Organized convection assoc with convectively induced short wave will cross N of the area tonight. Latest mdls keep the convection N of the region so will keep fcst dry. Decent SW breeze expected all night ahead approaching cold front keeping temps very mild in the upr 70s to lower 80s beaches with 70s inland.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 AM Thu . Hot weather and the potential for severe thunderstorms highlight Friday, with a very active pattern emerging over the weekend and continuing at least into the middle of next week.

Friday through Sunday . The area remains near the base of troughing over the Northeast Friday, with W to NW downsloping flow prevail above the boundary layer. At the surface, a cold front associated with low pressure lifting across the Canadian maritime providences will be forced toward the area by high pressure building across the Midwest. The subsidence aloft, prefrontal WAA and compressional heating will work to bring very hot and humid conditions with limited storm coverage through midday. Current forecast with highs in the mid to upper 90s away from the beaches and dew point values mainly in the mid 70s results in heat index values around 105 for much of the area, with some locations along the US Hwy 17 corridor approaching 110 in the afternoon immediately ahead of the sea breeze. A Heat Advisory will be needed for much of the area, with the need for an Excessive Heat Warning remaining under consideration.

Later Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the approaching cold front will provide the focus for lift needed to initiate storms across northeastern NC, with these storms likely spreading southward away from the front along their cold pool, tapping into the 2-3k J/kg of instability within the warm/moist airmass and 25-30 kt of 0-6 km shear at the base of the upper trough. Storm organization is expected, with multicell or QLCS organization possibly leading to an increased damaging wind gust threat.

Convective activity will push off the south coast as the surface front is now expected to push across most or all of the area by sunrise Saturday. However, heights aloft will begin to fall as troughing digs across the Ohio Valley toward the southern Appalachians, and the first in what will be several waves of low pressure will develop over the Southeast along the stalled boundary. This wave will bring the next round of storms Sunday as the boundary slides back over the area, where it will remain for the better part of next week. Developing deep layer moisture transport on the east side of the unseasonably high-amplitude trough will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, with the severe threat dependent on the timing and strength of the wave as it crosses the area Sunday.

Monday through mid-week . Unsettled weather continues early to middle of next week as the surface boundary remains stalled over/near the area with a relatively high amplitude upper trough over the southern Appalachians. The second significant wave traversing the boundary looks to impact the area late Monday into Tuesday, but timing is uncertain at this point. Overall, expect a wet period with persistent deep moisture advection brining flooding rainfall concerns, and periods of severe weather concerns possible as well. Temps will be near to below normal owing to cloud cover and periods of rainfall.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/ . As of 625 AM Thu . VFR will dominate this fcst cycle. Was expecting a bit more fog/stratus early this morn with clear and calm conditions with wet ground but so far has avoided taf sites for most part. Still cant rule out some sub VFR in fog/st next cpl hrs then shld be mclr rest of the period. SSW winds will increase to 8 to 12 kts this aftn and evening.

LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/ . As of 4 AM Thu . VFR prevails through midday Friday, with increasing convective activity later in the day bringing the potential for at least temporary flight restrictions. A much more active period will emerge later Saturday through the middle of next week, with periods of heavy rainfall and erratic winds in and around thunderstorms being the primary concerns.

MARINE. SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/ . As of 625 AM Thu . Fcst on track with no changes planned.

Prev disc . Light winds early become SSW and increase 10 to 15 kt S and 15 to 20 kts N this aftn. Winds increase a bit more tonight ahead of approaching cold front with speeds 15 to 25 kts late, highest cstl wtrs. Will begin a SCA for the central and srn wtrs prior to daybreak as gusts reach 25 kts. Seas 2 to 3 feet today build to 3 to 4 feet tonight and could see some 5 footers outer central wtrs late.

LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/ . As of 4 AM Thu . Breezy SW winds and 3-6 ft seas continue ahead of an approaching cold front Friday, with SCAs remaining in effect for the coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet into the evening. Strong storms are possible over the waters later Friday, with frequent lightning and strong/erratic winds the primary concerns. Light to moderate NE flow prevails behind the front Sat, with seas around 3 ft bringing seasonable marine conditions. However, the front will move back over the waters later Saturday, with several waves of low pressure moving along the front for the second half of the weekend through early next week. Generally moderate NE winds N of the front, with moderate SE to SW winds S of the front, with periods of breezy conditions when the low pressure waves are over/near the area Sunday and again Monday night. Unsettled conditions early next week, with periods of increased storm activity with high lightning activity and erratic/gusty winds possible.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156- 158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . RF/CB MARINE . RF/CB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	75 mi	53 min	WSW 4.1 G 6	79°F			1016.1 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	77 mi	57 min			76°F	1 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA	78 mi	53 min	S 5.1 G 6	78°F	82°F		1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC	17 mi	48 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	77°F	69°F	76%	1016.9 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC	21 mi	28 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	70°F	74%	1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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