Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farragut, TN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:24PM Monday December 9, 2019 4:43 AM EST (09:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farragut, TN
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location: 35.86, -84.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 090857 AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 357 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday night).

The main forecast item of concern in the short term is the arrival of a strong cold front on Tuesday morning, and the subsequent influx of arctic air and chances for snow. As such, the short term discussion will focus heavily on that aspect.

For today, isentropic ascent ahead of the aforementioned system is producing some scattered showers across east Tennessee and the southern Appalachian region this morning. Those will shift north through the day, leaving the forecast area dry for much of this afternoon and evening as the best lift ends up focused north of us. Additionally, strong warm advection ahead of the approaching system tomorrow, will mean temperatures in the low to mid 60s this afternoon for much of the valley. Likewise, these warm temperatures will hold through the night as the cold front approaches, with temperatures falling through the day tomorrow after a mid morning FROPA.

As the front approaches from the west late tonight, expect rainfall to become widespread, with stratiform rain continuing through the day tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Much of the forcing with this system will lag behind the surface front by several hours, so as sub-freezing temperatures begin to arrive there will be a notable period of wintry precipitation depending on the location. Freezing temperatures begin to arrive in the northern plateau by mid/late afternoon, but will not filter into southwest Virginia or the northern valley until the evening hours. The southern valley will see freezing temperatures arrive during the overnight hours. Model soundings show a substantial warm nose tomorrow afternoon and evening, however this will be eroded quickly tomorrow evening and overnight as both dynamic cooling takes place and the mid level trough axis passes, allowing for a stronger CAA signal above the surface. As mentioned, precipitation will continue well behind these features, not coming to an end until around daybreak Wednesday morning. The forecast reflects rain for much of the day tomorrow, with a fairly quick transition from rain to a sleet/snow mix, and then to all snow, occurring tomorrow afternoon/evening in the plateau, and a few hours later for points further east. For areas in the northern plateau, southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee mountains, and even some higher elevations locations in the northern valley close to the VA border, snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. The valley, especially south of I-40, is a little more uncertain. Certainly model soundings support a rain/snow mix by midnight, or shortly thereafter, for much of the valley. The uncertainty revolves around surface temperatures as well as forecast QPF values after the freezing temperatures arrive. For now it appears a few tenths are possible for much of the valley, with perhaps as much as an inch or so for areas north of I-40.

Lastly, at this time, decided to not issue any headlines. The timeline (over 30 hours out), as well as uncertainty in amounts, warrants holding off for now. But if these trends continue, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for northern areas.

CD

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday).

Precip ending as we open the period Wednesday morning. Fairly normative mid December temps will mark the extended period. This will pose a potential problem, however, for Thursday night and Friday morning. The GFS and ECMWF persist in their disagreement on the path of the next system, with the GFS tracking an H5 trough over the lower MS Valley, whereas the ECMWF tracks it further SW over the Rio Grande Valley. Thus, the GFS draws up more precip quicker, and the ECMWF less precip slower. We will still compromise with POPs between the uncertainty, but that leads to this side-effect: GFS's precip onset Thurs night occurs with a warm nose above a freezing surface in northern areas, suggesting we may see freezing rain at precip's onset. On the other hand, the ECMWF is still dry at that crucial time frame -- although with the same warm nose. Since we are carrying something of a POP compromise, there will therefore be freezing rain mentioned in areas for late Thurs night into Fri morning, even though confidence is not high. If it does materialize, hopefully amounts will be light. The remainder of the forecast period from Friday to Sunday will contain chance to slight chance POPs, but temps will moderate just enough to go with plain rain therein.

GC

AVIATION.

A strong wind field aloft will be present throughout the 06z TAF period, likely mixing down to the surface this afternoon. The presence of these strong winds necessitate mention of Low Level Wind Shear at all sites until winds strengthen at KCHA and KTYS this afternoon. There remains uncertainty as to whether this will occur at KTRI due to continued downslope flow throughout the day, so will maintain LLWS there. Speaking of downslope winds, expect fairly widespread MVFR ceilings to develop by around daybreak as rain showers increase in coverage across the region. Have this accounted for at KCHA and KTYS, but KTRI may remain VFR through much of the period as those downslope winds erode any low ceilings attempting to form.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 57 59 34 48 / 40 80 90 80 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 57 58 33 45 / 40 80 90 80 10 Oak Ridge, TN 61 54 56 31 45 / 40 80 90 80 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 55 55 32 42 / 50 80 90 80 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA . NONE.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN10 mi51 minNE 310.00 miOvercast50°F45°F83%1016.1 hPa
Oak Ridge, TN12 mi51 minSW 38.00 miLight Rain49°F41°F74%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTYS

Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmE4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN3NW4E3NW3W3NE3
1 day agoN3N4NE4NE3E3NE6NE10N7NE76N5N4NE5N5N7NE6CalmN3NE4N5CalmNE33NE4
2 days agoNE4CalmNE3CalmCalmE4N6CalmCalmNW4CalmE3E3CalmN3NE3CalmN4CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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