Tuesday, September29, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Nags Head, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:52PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 9:39 AM EDT (13:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:11PMMoonset 3:38AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 717 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves choppy, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 627 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. South winds will increase today ahead of a cold front, and a small craft advisory in in effect. Marine visibility may be reduced in occasional heavy rain this morning, and again tonight. The front will cross the coast early Wednesday, followed by cooler and drier high pressure for the remainder of the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nags Head, NC
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location: 35.91, -75.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 291146 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 746 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front will approach the area today and move offshore early Wednesday. Behind that, cooler high pressure is expected to build over the area mid to late week. Low pressure and unsettled weather is possible late weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 740 AM Tue . Morning radar check reveals showers and storms, with rainfall heavy at times, meridionally bisecting eastern NC along a line of low level moisture convergence. Rain rates around 1-2 inches per hours are being observed at times, and minor/nuisance flooding could begin within the next hour or two. Only changes with the sunrise update were to hourly POPs and QPF to account for latest precip trends.

Previous Discussion . A cold front approaching from the west and high pressure persisting well offshore will bring deep moisture transport to the area today, with PWat values climbing over 2 inches by midday. Scattered to numerous showers will overspread the area this morning, with downpours heavy at times, but storms overall progressive to limit the flooding threat. Only modest thermodynamic instability will develop, so while a few thunderstorms are possible, updrafts will not generally be strong enough to produce a significant severe threat despite 0-6 km shear values around 25 kt this morning increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Overcast skies limit warming today, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. As of 350 AM Tue . The cold front will cross the area quickly late tonight through early Wednesday morning. The strongest moisture advection will occur along the frontal zone, with zone parallel advection indicating the potential for heavy showers to develop and train along the boundary. This will bring the greatest threat for flooding with the potential for 1-2+ inches of rainfall across the area, and locations that experience training storms receiving localized amounts of 2-3+ inches on top of any rainfall that falls today. The coverage of any flooding threat will be too limited to justify a Flash Flood Watch, but localized nighttime flash flooding, especially for urban and low lying/poor drainage areas, is possible overnight. Low instability limits the flash flooding threat, but ample low level shear will bring the potential for gusty winds and low LCLs mean a brief tornado is possible with the strongest storms. Upper subsidence will bring rapid drying and clearing skies in the wake of the frontal moisture/precip shield, likely working into western portions of the area shortly before sunrise. Lows have been dropped several degrees to account for a faster than previous frontal progression, with temps now expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s away from the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 4 AM Tue . Mainly dry with high pressure through the first half of the weekend, then more unsettled Sunday through early next week.

Wednesday . Latest trends indicate a much drier forecast, and have reduced pops significantly as a faster fropa will lead to dry weather after 12-13z, with perhaps only a lingering shower along the OBX early in the morning. Plentiful sunshine expected with light wrly to nwrly flow and cooler/drier temps. Highs expected in the 70s with lows Wed night in the 50s.

Thursday through Saturday . Drier with temps near climo this period. Exception may be Friday, as parent upper trough will finally push eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard and force a weak but mainly dry cold front through E NC. Moisture will be limited with this front as GOM will be cut off from the flow, and therefore retained a silent 20% pop in the grids most areas, with some 30% covg nern zones where some better forcing exists. Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s this period.

Sunday through Monday . More complicated pattern sets up by second half of the weekend, with aforementioned front stalling off the ern Seaboard. Next in a series of shortwaves will deepen across the lower MS/TN Valleys, which will act to amplify coastal troughing, with a tropical type low also possibly scooting up the coast during this time. Previous ECM indicated this potential, and latest 29/00Z ECMWF and GFS both have this soln. While still in the extended, day 6+, have enough agreement to raise pops to 30-50% east of HWY 17, with slght chc pops Coastal Plains. Temps will be warming with the inc clouds, shower potential, and humidity.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/ . As of 730 AM Tue . Rapidly changing conditions through the day today and tonight as a moist and unstable airmass overspreads the area ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR conditions generally prevail outside of showers and storms today, with IFR conditions TEMPO'd at all sites to account for the most likely timing of thunderstorms this morning. A lull in precip intensity is possible later this afternoon before the primary band of moisture ahead of and along the front crosses the area tonight bringing widespread heavy rainfall and lively IFR or possibly LIFR conditions through the early Wednesday morning hours.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 4 AM Tue . VFR and mo sunny returns by Wed and continues into first half of the weekend.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 4 AM Tue . A strong cold front will approach from the west today, with moderate southerly winds through this afternoon increasing quickly late afternoon through the evening, becoming gusty mainly overnight through frontal passage, which is expected around sunrise Wednesday. SCAs have been issued for the sounds and Alligator River accordingly. Seas around 3-4 ft this morning will increase quickly later today in response to the stronger winds, with dangerous expected to peak around 6-10 ft during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. SCAs for the coastal waters remain in effect for the combination of these dangerous seas and the expected gusty winds, which could gust to 35 kt occasionally mainly south of Oregon Inlet.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 4 AM Tue . Behind a cold front Wednesday, conditions will begin to improve with winds becoming westerly at 10-15 kts, with seas subsiding below SCA levels by afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will move through on Friday, with winds becoming nrly and inc 10-20 kt with some gusts nearing SCA (25+) levels. Seas will respond by building 4-5 ft with some sets possibly reaching 6 ft esp outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . TL/CB AVIATION . TL/CB MARINE . TL/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 8 mi52 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1
44086 11 mi57 min 74°F4 ft
44095 18 mi44 min 74°F3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi44 min 73°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 21 mi52 min SSE 8.9 G 11 74°F 1012.7 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 24 mi44 min 73°F3 ft
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 49 mi52 min SSE 5.1 G 7 77°F 76°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC6 mi45 minS 510.00 miOvercast75°F71°F90%1013.2 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC9 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast74°F72°F96%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmSE5SW8SE6SE7S7S6S4S3S5S5S5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS5
1 day ago--CalmNW6NW6N5N6SW6S5SE5CalmCalmSW5SW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6S5S9SW4CalmS4S3E8E3NE5N4N5CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3NW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina
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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:38 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.611.72.63.23.63.63.32.61.81.10.60.60.91.62.53.23.73.93.632.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Oregon Inlet Marina, North Carolina
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Oregon Inlet Marina
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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