Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nags Head, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Near record temperatures possible each afternoon through Saturday.

2) Drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through the end of the week, with the next meaningful chance of rain not until Sunday.

3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler conditions early next week

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures are expected today through Saturday thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This should equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Friday may be a touch cooler with more widespread cloudiness around as an upper level shortwave moves through the region. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). To give a little more perspective, most climate sites in the Southeast U.S., including here in ENC, haven't seen measurable precipitation in at least 10 days during what would normally be a wetter time of year. Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with meaningful rainfall unlikely through the end of the week. Looking further out in time, longer-range guidance suggests this dry pattern may last at least another 1-2 weeks, with a pattern change possible by late April or early May.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect today, and additional statements or fire weather headlines may be needed through the week and into the weekend. Of note, increasing winds ahead of, and behind, this weekend's cold front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions beginning today on all four national forests in NC.
Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Over the upcoming weekend, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There may be just enough low-level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. While guidance remains consistent in this potential, rainfall amounts do not look overly impressive or "drought-denting" in any way.
The latest ensemble guidance suggests about 0.10"-0.30" of rain. While instability currently looks modest, at best, any thunderstorms that develop could produce higher amounts, but this would be over smaller areas. While instability is currently forecast to be modest, deep layer shear of 50-60kt would be supportive of organized convection. Machine learning guidance shows a fairly weak signal for severe thunderstorm potential, but we'll continue to monitor this risk as the weekend draws closer.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Modest southwesterly winds, gusty at times, are expected to persist over the next 24 hrs as ENC remains in a stagnant weather pattern. Conditions over the next 24 hrs are expected to be very similar to conditions over the past 24 hrs. The seabreeze on Thursday is expected to develop around 18z, and progress inland to OAJ and EWN by 19-21z with a wind shift from SW to S. The seabreeze looks like it won't be as noticeable further inland from ISO to PGV.

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hrs. However, some guidance suggests the potential for reduced VIS and/or low stratus development overnight and again Thursday night. For now, this appears unlikely, and the TAFs reflect this expectation.

Outlook: It's now looking like a weak cold front or surface trough will reach ENC on Friday with an increase in cloudcover and perhaps a few SHRA and TSRA. The latest guidance suggests the greatest TSRA risk (15-20%) will be focused from KPGV east through KFFA. Elsewhere, the risk is lower (around 5-10%). Gusty winds could accompany any SHRA or TSRA that develops on Friday.
The next opportunity for sub-VFR conditions is then expected on Sunday as a cold front moves through. Once again, a period of gusty winds is expected in addition to a risk of TSRA (15-25% chance).

MARINE
Marginal Small Craft conditions will linger across the nearshore waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout as the thermal and pressure gradient fluctuate through tomorrow. Elsewhere, 25 kt wind gusts will be less frequent but still possible, especially during the peak of the thermal gradient late this afternoon through this evening.

Winds will continue out of the SW today at 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts through tomorrow morning. Thereafter, a weak front entering the region will relax the pressure gradient, and winds will come down to SW/S at 5-15 kts through tomorrow night. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft through tomorrow night, but could occasionally reach 6 feet, especially over the Gulf Stream.

Outlook: Southwest winds will increase again this weekend ahead of a cold front. The latest forecast has SW winds reaching 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the first half of Sunday.
As the front passes, winds will veer to the N and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday night/early Monday with the potential for some Gale force gusts. Seas are expected to build to 5-7 ft in response, peaking early Monday. Scattered thunderstorms may occur with the front as well.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/19 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 96/1917 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ154-156.