Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nags Head, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Increased risk of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday, some of which could be strong to marginally severe, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and scattered instances of flooding.

2) Brief reprieve from the dangerous heat early next week, then hot and humid conditions return by the end of the week

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another remnant MCV is pushing across the Carolina piedmont this afternoon and expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to push across ENC late this afternoon. Already seeing a few showers develop this afternoon with instability increasing and could see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of better forcing with the MCV. Guidance is not showing quite as an organized line of thunderstorms as we say yesterday, likely to to weaker shear over yesterday, but DCAPE and instability are similar and could see stronger storms produce gusty/damaging winds of 50-70 mph.

In the wake of the late-day/evening convection, a frontal boundary is forecast to settle into the area, with areas of low pressure rippling east along it through Monday. Increasing moisture and lift along the frontal zone is expected to support multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While the pattern appears kind of messy for severe weather, the frontal zone probably helps to boost deep layer shear some, and there may be at least a marginal/low-end severe risk, especially on Sunday. Additionally, multiple rounds of thunderstorms within a moist environment (PWAT values around 2.25") could lead to some hydro issues. This may especially be the case on Sunday when instability and lift will be maximized, favoring the heaviest rainfall rates and amounts. In light of this, WPC has increased the risk of flash flooding from marginal to slight for much of ENC for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...In the wake of the active convective period through Monday, a not as hot northeasterly flow regime will develop across the Carolinas early next week, favoring slightly below climo temps. This will offer a brief reprieve from the dangerous heat of late. The reprieve is expected to be short- lived, however, as heat rebuilds late-week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will combine with increasing lift along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Carolinas. This is expected to support an increased risk of TSRA over the next 24+ hours across ENC. Initially, the risk is expected to be focused east of the TAF sites overnight. However, by Sunday the risk is expected to expand across all of ENC, including all of the TAF sites. Of note, this is likely to be a longer duration TSRA risk from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. However, TSRA are not expected for that entire time. TSRA are expected to be accompanied by sub-VFR conditions. Due to the potential for very heavy rain at times, there will be a risk of IFR/LIFR VIS.

Outlook (Monday through Thursday): Moisture and lift along a stalled front should continue to support periods of SHRA through Monday. With time, the TSRA risk is expected to lower, especially by Monday and Tuesday. Periods of low CIGs (IFR/MVFR)
are expected through early next week as moisture continues to wrap around an area of low pressure forecast to develop off the coast of NC. A more predominant period of VFR conditions looks to return by the middle of next week.

MARINE
W to SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-5 ft across the waters this afternoon. A frontal boundary will drop into the region late tonight into Sunday with winds shifting to N to NE around 10-15 kt to the north of the front. The front is expected to stall over the area Sunday with lighter and somewhat variable winds to the south of the front. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this evening ahead of the approaching front and continue into early next week with the front stalled near the area.

Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): An area of low pressure is forecast to develop and move east along a stalled frontal zone late Sunday into Monday, then shift east by Tuesday. Some guidance showing occasional periods of 25kt winds and/or 6ft seas developing around this low Sunday night into Monday, and marine headlines may eventually be needed for a portion of the waters, with a better chance on Monday. Boating conditions are forecast to improve by Tuesday or Wednesday as winds and seas lay down with good boating conditions continuing into Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.