Tuesday, November12, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Mount, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:07PM Tuesday November 12, 2019 4:21 AM EST (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:32PMMoonset 6:36AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 327 Am Est Tue Nov 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt early this afternoon, then becoming N 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy early this afternoon, then increasing to rough late. A slight chance of showers early this morning, then a chance of showers late this morning. Showers this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Waves choppy.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. Showers likely, then a chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves rough. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Mount, NC
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location: 35.97, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 120853
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
355 am est Tue nov 12 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front will cross central north carolina this morning,
ushering in chilly arctic air that will persist through Thursday.

Surface low pressure will develop along the southeast coast late
Thursday, and this will combine with an approaching upper level
trough from the west to bring rain chances late Thursday through
Friday.

Near term today through tonight
As of 330 am Tuesday...

we've got a lot of interesting weather coming at us over the next 24-
30 hours -- widespread moderate rainfall, plummeting temps to near
record cold lows, a likely brief rain snow sleet mix across the
north, and blustery and gusty winds producing cold wind chills
tonight. The most noteworthy change this morning compared to
yesterday is the growing potential for a short period of mostly wet
flakes and or sleet on the back edge of the precip shield in areas
along north of highway 64. Let's tackle each of these weather
concerns one at a time.

Overall picture: cold front is currently moving through E tn toward
the appalachians. Its anafrontal structure features the deepest
forcing for ascent (including mid level dpva with the approaching
mid level trough and what is some pretty impressive upper divergence
associated with a couple of ideally juxtaposed upper jet cores)
along and behind the front. As such, we should see wnw-to-ese
frontal passage attending the front edge of the most widespread
precip pushing through central nc 10z-17z, with the back edge of
this main precip shield crossing central nc 18z-02z. High pressure
and subsequent clearing will start pushing into the area tonight,
as the mid level trough axis shifts through the area.

Rainfall: based on the latest hi-res model output and upstream
observations, most precip rates should generally range from a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch per hour, although some sref
members and the href mean suggest 3-hourly totals of one quarter to
one half inch. Given the good deep layer lift and 1"+ pw streaming
into the area, these higher totals seem very achievable. With any
given location seeing several hours of precip, expect storm total
amounts from two-thirds to around one inch.

Plummeting temps: models have been in good agreement on the falling
temps today, and we're already seeing this post-front to our w.

While it should take a few hours for the coldest and most dense air
to work past the higher terrain, the rain-cooled air combined with
caa will lead to a steady drop today. Daily highs will occur prior
to daybreak, with temps falling into the 40s along NW of i-95 (and
into the 30s in the triad) by lunchtime. Everyone should be in the
30s by early evening and in the 20s to around 30 by 2 or 3 am. Temps
just before sunrise Wed will approach records (see climate section
below).

Non-liquid precip chances: as models converge on an agreed-upon
common timing of precip and vertical thermal structure, confidence
is fairly high that the northern piedmont and northern coastal plain
(roughly along and N of hwy 64) will see some wet flakes and or
sleet pellets mixing in with the rain on the back edge of the
precip. But based on how the strongest and deepest lift (including
fgen and that aforementioned strengthening upper divergence) is
lining up vertically and temporally with the arrival of the cold air
and within the dgz, I have some concerns that we'll see a short
period of sufficiently high precip rates to switch us over to mostly
snow and sleet for a brief time, although likely no more than an
hour. While the ground should be warm enough to prevent accumulation
there (nc state climate office agnet stations confirm this), heavy
enough rates may produce a light coating on elevated surfaces.

Confidence in this scenario is not high enough to warrant any
mention of accumulation at this time. But this is certainly
something to be watched closely this morning.

Winds: sustained speeds of 12-18 mph are expected just behind the
front today, with frequent gusts to 20-30 mph possible, given model
projections of 925 mb winds of 30-40 kts just behind the frontal
zone. The strongest gusts should occur starting late morning in the
triad then translating through the western and southern CWA through
the afternoon. Winds should decrease a bit this evening but remain
elevated with periodic gusts as the denser air pours into central nc
and surface winds veer to nne. Wind chills are likely to bottom out
in the teens late tonight. -gih

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 355 am Tuesday...

dry and chilly. The center of the surface high will move from WV in
the morning to the mid atlantic through today and to new england
tonight, while ridging ssw through central nc. We should still see a
steady breeze from the nne through mid morning or so but these
should become light by lunchtime. Expect generally sunny skies,
although some high thin clouds may advect into N and NE sections
from the NW during the afternoon. Thicknesses will start out around
80 m below normal, so despite the insolation and slowly decreasing
caa, expect highs from around 40 to the mid 40s. The modifying air
mass will face excellent radiational cooling conditions Wed night,
so expect chilly lows in the low-mid 20s. -gih

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 205 am Tuesday...

as the upper level trough shifts off to the east the upper level
flow over central nc will back around to more westerly then
southwesterly through Thursday. Meanwhile, a shortwave in the
northern stream flow will amplify as it swings through the northern
plains toward the western great lakes. A southern stream low will
also progress eastward through the southwest us and into the gulf
coast region. For central nc, the forecast should be cool and dry
through the day Thursday. Thursday highs will still be below normal,
but as the onshore flow increases during the day, warm air will
advect in from the east, resulting in about a 10 degree difference
from NW (mid 40s) to SE (mid 50s).

As the northern and southern stream trough low interact and approach
the region, the forecast becomes much more complicated. While the
models have come into better agreement, the solutions still have
some differences. The trend for Thursday night through Saturday has
been wetter (closer to the previous ECMWF solutions). An upper low
will cutoff in the southern stream on Friday over the gulf coast as
the northern stream trough dampens. Rain could start over central nc
could start as early as Thursday eve night, however the best chances
and highest amounts will occur as the low slides up the southeast
and mid-atlantic coast Friday night Saturday. The highest rainfall
totals will likely be along or just off the coast. Gut feeling and
past experience still lean toward keeping any precipitation that
does occur primarily liquid. However, there is still a possibility,
albeit small, that some rain could mix with or briefly transition to
snow on the NW side of the low. Regardless, do not expect any
measurable frozen precipitation, though where rain occurs amounts
will be measurable and best chances highest amounts will be farther
east. The low should shift offshore and begin lifting northeastward
on Sunday, with a primarily dry forecast on Sunday and Monday. Below
normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, nearing
normals early next week.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 110 am Tuesday...

poor aviation conditions will dominate over much of central nc from
around sunrise through at least mid afternoon. The currentVFR
conditions across central nc will give way to MVFR conditions toward
sunrise at western terminals and by mid morning in the eastern
terminals, as a cold front crosses the area. Most of the rain and
low clouds will be near and behind the frontal passage, which will
occur 10z-12z at int gso, 13z-14z at rdu, and 14z-15z at rwi fay.

Near and behind the front, CIGS will lower to MVFR withVFR to MVFR
vsbys in steady rain. A sudden wind shift from SW to NW and nnw will
occur with frontal passage, with winds sustained around 15 kts
gusting to as high as 20-30 kts, strongest at int gso. Rain will
taper down from W to E during the mid to late afternoon, and nw
terminals should become dry with clearing skies by 21z while eastern
terminals will trend dry clearing by 00z-02z. Winds will diminish a
bit by mid evening but will stay in the 10-15 kt range with a few
lingering gusts to 20-25 kt (mainly at int gso) through 06z Wed as
cold air rushes in. Llws is possible for the next several hours at
northern terminals (int gso rdu rwi), with a 1500-2000 ft agl wind
from the SW at around 35 kts.

Looking beyond 06z wed, surface winds from the N and nne will
continue to diminish overnight.VFR conditions will dominate into
thu morning beneath surface high pressure. Then, on thu, an upper
trough approaching from the W and surface low pressure forming near
the southeast coast will combine to bring potential sub-vfr
conditions and rain for late Thu through at least fri, possibly
lasting into Sat especially in the e. -gih

Climate
Some record minimum and low-maximum temperatures for this week
may be in jeopardy.

Date rdu gso fay
min low MAX min low MAX min low max
11 12 22 1957 44 1895 17 1943 42 1934 21 1957 39 1987
11 13 23 1977 39 1911 22 1977 35 1907 23 1911 43 1976
11 14 20 1977 39 1976 19 1986 38 1904 23 2013 45 1997

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Hartfield
near term... Hartfield
short term... Hartfield
long term... Kc
aviation... Hartfield
climate... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 98 mi51 min SW 5.1 G 11 57°F 59°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rocky Mount, Rocky Mount-Wilson Regional Airport, NC8 mi28 minSSW 610.00 miFair54°F43°F67%1012.8 hPa
Tarboro-Edgecombe Airport, NC15 mi26 minSSW 510.00 miFair53°F43°F71%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRWI

Wind History from RWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW5S5S9S7S10S8S11S4S4S6S9S6SW6S7S8S7SW6SW8SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW8SW7S6S8SW9SW8S8S5S3CalmCalmS3S4CalmS3CalmS3S3S3
2 days agoNE6N5N6N7NE7NE6NE7N65CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
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Tue -- 03:49 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:16 AM EST     4.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:33 PM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.11.10.50.30.71.42.53.54.34.74.643210.50.40.91.72.63.544

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:17 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 09:30 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:47 PM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.20.60.30.40.91.72.63.33.73.73.42.71.91.10.60.30.51.11.92.63.13.22.9

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.