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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 125 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Wed night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves flat.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 125 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure persists inland with troughing off the coast through Thursday. A cold front could approach the region Friday, crossing the waters Saturday. High pressure returns late weekend and next week.

FXUS62 KRAH 040730 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend through our area from the northeast through early Thursday. This high will weaken Thursday and Friday, as an increasing onshore flow brings Atlantic moisture westward into the Carolinas. A cold front will move in from the west early Saturday, ushering in cooler air late Saturday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Another day similar to the previous, although this could be the last in this string of days with both dry weather and abundant sunshine.
Patchy stratus and fog has developed early this morning, primarily near the usual suspects, those observing sites near creeks/rivers, however several pieces of model guidance suggest that we'll see fog and stratus patches expand areally prior to daybreak. These should be shallow, however, and are likely to mix out/burn off quickly, by mid morning. For the remainder of the day, surface high pressure centered off the coast of the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast states will continue to nose narrowly SSW through central NC today, while atop this ridge, the mid level anticyclone that is part of a rex block pattern will hold in place, north of a baggy mid level low spinning off the Southeast coast. This pattern will pivot slightly starting today, with the anticyclone shifting a bit further E and out over the NW Atlantic, while the low off the Southeast coast nudges a bit westward. This will serve to strengthen the low-mid level ENE flow into NC, setting the stage for increasing clouds tomorrow. But until then, there remains scant moisture through the column, with only a shallow layer of higher RH beneath the deep mid level warm/stable 850-600 mb layer. Expect another round of mostly scattered, but briefly broken at times, flat cu today, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and waning after sunset. Thicknesses are projected by most models to be very close to those of the last two days, so again expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with dewpoints starting to creep up, esp in the E. -GIH

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

The narrow surface ridging into central NC will weaken further Thu as the anticyclone centers from the surface up through the mid levels shift further out over the NW Atlantic. The mid level cyclone off the Southeast coast (centered NW of what is now TS Philippe) is expected to drift to the NE Thu/Thu night, keeping NC within a deep col area as eyes turn to deep longwave troughing digging from central Canada through the Midwest. Near-surface moisture will increase minimally through this period with weak surface flow resulting in a lack of near-ground moisture influx. But just aloft, at 925-700 mb, slightly better advection of moisture is expected as NE flow veers to more easterly, drawing in Atlantic moisture from N and NW of Philippe's circulation into the eastern Carolinas. We'll also have a weak shortwave trough approaching from the W Thu night on the SSE edge of the main longwave trough, which should bring increasing high clouds as well late Thu night. Expect skies to trend to partly cloudy Thu, then late Thu night, to mostly cloudy across the W, but we'll remain pop-free with deep moisture and forcing features both lacking. Expect highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s followed by mild lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. -GIH

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

A weakness in the mid/upper level ridge will develop over the Carolinas on Thursday, as the northern portion of the ridge splits off and shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the area from the west, moving into the central and southern Appalachians by Friday morning. As this occurs moisture will be pulled northward from a weak mid/upper disturbance off the southeast U.S. coast, with the potential for some isolated showers on Friday. The main cold front associated with the approaching mid/upper trough will then move across the area Saturday morning into the early afternoon. A few showers will be possible along and in advance of the front moves across the area on Saturday, with the main combination of moisture and lift passing to the north of the area. It'll be a little breezy on Saturday as the cold front moves through the area, with some gusts into the 20-25 mph range possible. Dry weather is expected by at least Saturday evening and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period, along with much cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday, before rebounding some by Tuesday.

High temperatures ahead of the front are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s Friday, with even a few mid 80s possible. Highs Saturday will be tricky, given the frontal timing and precip chances. For now expect highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the mid to upper 70s southeast. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday are expected to be generally in the 60s, before rebounding some Tuesday back into the 70s. Lows ahead of the front will follow a similar trend, with lows in the 50s to 60s ahead of the front, with 40s to near 50 degrees expected by Sunday morning, and possibly even cooler by Monday morning (maybe a few upper 30s even).

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1245 AM Wednesday...

Most central NC terminals are VFR at this hour, however isolated shallow IFR fog banks have already developed at sites near bodies of water across our NE and far N. There is a good chance of areas of MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys early this morning across the W and N, including INT/GSO/RDU/RWI, esp between 08z and 12z, with a much lower chance at FAY. This fog should quickly lift and disperse by 13z.

Otherwise, from mid morning onward, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF valid period, with just scattered flat VFR cu expected as a narrow high pressure ridge holds over the area. A few MVFR clouds may begin to work inland into far E sections toward 06z tonight, but this is far from certain. Surface winds from the NE and ENE will remain light, peaking under 10 kts this afternoon.

Looking beyond 06z Thu, VFR conditions should dominate through Fri, although clouds will be increasing from the E and may bring a period of MVFR clouds esp in the E early Fri morning. A few showers are possible Fri afternoon through Sat morning, but coverage will be low. A cold front will sweep through Sat, ushering in clearing skies and VFR conditions for late Sat through Sun. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Suffolk
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Wed -- 02:47 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:17 PM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet

Hollidays Point (bridge)
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Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:31 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia, Tide feet

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