Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday January 18, 2020 10:35 AM EST (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:19AMMoonset 12:37PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 181448 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 950 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure extending into the area from the north will slide off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning, as a storm system approaches from the west. This system will cross the region late today through tonight, with a cold front pushing offshore early Sunday. Much colder air will pour into the area late Sunday through Tuesday as Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 950 AM Saturday .

Little changes needed to the forecast for the morning update. Better matched the current forecast to in-situ observations, and continuing to see a more delayed trend in the rainfall arrival time. Should see POPs increase later this afternoon (Triad) and evening (Triangle east) as previously expected.

Previous valid discussion .

Primary forecast changes this morning included a noteworthy upward bump in near term temps and a slight delay in precip chances until lunchtime at the earliest. The latest surface map shows the chilly high extending from SW Quebec down into the Carolinas, while the diffuse warm front extends from the FL/GA line W and N into the Ohio Valley and W to strong low pressure over SW IA, all associated with a progressive strong mid level low crossing the Great Lakes. Mid and high clouds associated with SW-NE passage of the elevated warm front continue to stream across the area, and this will remain the case through daybreak. Starting mid morning, increasing moist upglide at 285-300K will result in stratus spreading in rather quickly from the SSW, arriving first over the S and SW CWA before expanding over all of central NC through early afternoon. Models agree on depicting several dry layers through the column during this time, however, and the significant rise in PW as the surface high pushes offshore and the warm frontal zone moves northward will be delayed until later this afternoon. We'll spend the first half of the day with no tangible forcing for ascent beneath the slowly exiting mid level ridge, and this lift is unlikely to arrive until early to mid afternoon. All recent CAM runs agree on delaying chance pops until after 18z. So, have delayed the onset of pops, with just a slight chance in the Triad around lunchtime before increasing pops to chance/likely and expanding them eastward across central NC in tandem with the arrival of weak height falls, a strengthening wind field, and increasing upper divergence. Given this delay, and given that the current temps (and wet bulb temps) in the W Piedmont are running above statistical guidance with relatively warm ground temps, the potential for any freezing or frozen precip this morning is infinitesimal, so have removed this mention. But we should still see neutral or slightly stable air in the low levels as the weakening wedging ridge lingers in the NW Piedmont. Expect highs today in the low-mid 40s NW of Highway 1 with upper 40s to mid 50s along and SE of Highway 1 (where precip will be last to fall). Rain chances should peak 21z-03z over the NW CWA and 03z-09z in the SE, although it looks like amounts will be light, mostly under a quarter inch for the event. A downturn in pops and partial clearing is expected late tonight in the NW as the cold front pushes SE through the region, initiating a drying WNW low level flow. With this timing, pops should end over the SE CWA just before daybreak with a flattening mid level flow and drying column, prompting clearing late from NW to SE. Lows from the upper 30s NW ranging to around 50 SE (where the cooler post-front air will be last to arrive). SW winds will strengthen with increasing gustiness this afternoon into this evening. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM Saturday .

The initial cold front will push well to our SE early Sun, with a secondary reinforcing front and corresponding mid level shear axis tracking SSE through central NC late Sun. While thicknesses are projected to drop through the day, the real Arctic air is likely to hold off until passage of the secondary front later in the day into early evening. We'll see abundant sunshine and good mixing, so expect to see highs from the upper 40s to near 50 in the Triad ranging to the mid 50s to lower 60s over the rest of the area. As thicknesses continue to plunge Sun night, reaching values 40-45 m below normal by Mon morning with falling dewpoints well down into the teens, we should see lows in the 20s areawide. -GIH

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 150 AM Saturday .

The extended forecast period will largely be dry an cool, with cool high pressure building over the area and lingering through at least Thursday/Thursday night. Aloft, a trough will swing through the area early in the week, with high pressure ridging northward into the region mid-week. In a change from this past week, temperatures will be well below normal through Wednesday moderating to near normal Thursday. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the low to mid 20s expected. Normal highs for this time of year range from 48- 55 degrees and normal lows from 29-34 degrees.

The next weather system will develop over the Plains on Thursday and moving into the region late in the week/early weekend. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as the medium-range models vary greatly. Generally expect an increase in chances for precipitation Friday/Saturday, with temperatures continuing to moderate back above normal for Friday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 645 AM Saturday .

VFR conditions will hold through daybreak over central NC as broken to overcast mid and high clouds continue to streak across the area ahead of the approaching storm system. Lower level moisture evident over S MS early this morning will stream N and NE into western NC including the Triad terminals starting after 14z, when cigs are expected to drop to MVFR at INT/GSO. These MVFR cigs will then spread into RDU after 16z and FAY/RWI after 18z. Light precip will lag these lower clouds by an hour or two, moving into INT/GSO toward 17z, RDU around 18z, and RWI/FAY around 20z. Vsbys in this light rain will be mostly VFR, although a few hours of MVFR vsbys and brief IFR cigs are possible 00z-09z. Conditions should improve to VFR after 08z at INT/GSO/RDU and after 09z at RWI, while FAY may retain an MVFR cigs through 12z. Surface winds will be mainly under 10 kts all sites through 18z, however winds will strengthen this afternoon out of the SSW at 10-16 kts gusting to 18-25 kts through this evening. There is a good chance of LLWS at all sites after 22z as a strong SW 40-50 kt jet just aloft, near 2000 ft AGL, develops over central and E NC.

Looking beyond 12z Sun, any remaining sub-VFR conditions at FAY (mainly cigs) will improve to VFR with clearing skies around 15z Sun. Surface winds will decrease a bit and swing around to W and NW with this clearing Sun morning, although winds may stay gusty. VFR conditions will dominate Sun through Wed beneath chilly high pressure. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . Hartfield NEAR TERM . JJM/Hartfield SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . Hartfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi40 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast36°F23°F60%1033.5 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi44 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F23°F55%1032.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLHZ

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.