Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:35PM Saturday July 4, 2020 9:41 PM EDT (01:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 042357 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 757 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak backdoor front will continue to slowly slide through central NC overnight, but will dissipate Sunday morning. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are expected across the area Sunday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 757 PM Saturday .

Isolated showers and storms continue to percolate across the area this evening thanks to modest instability ahead of a weak backdoor front. The majority of the storm activity earlier today was confined to areas north and east of Raleigh where MLCAPE was on the order of 2500 J/KG this afternoon. However additional storms formed on colliding outflows as far away as the NW Piedmont and across the Sandhills. Although there has been an overall decrease in areal coverage of storms since 23Z, there will be at least a continued slight chance of showers and storms area-wide through the remainder of the evening hours given lingering surface based instability. Latest runs of the HRRR depict a rapid decrease in storm coverage after 04Z and I will keep the forecast dry after that point.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the coolest values in the northern Coastal Plain. Given rain cooled air and weak onshore flow in these areas, there's a good chance of some cloud/fog development early Sunday morning and I drew in some areas of patchy fog around daybreak.

Overall the forecast is in great shape, only making minor adjustments to near-term grids based on observational trends.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM Saturday .

A subtropical ridge in the mid levels will strengthen and expand with associated anticyclonic, subsident flow, amidst and 10-20 meter mid level height rises over cntl NC both Sun and Sun night.

At the surface, an outflow and maritime nely flow-reinforced front, likely with areas of low overcast on the ne/cool side, will extend across cntl NC in the vicinity of I-40 Sun morning. The front will be intersected by a lee trough/low over the wrn Piedmont. Meanwhile, weak, 1016 mb high pressure will extend down and offshore the middle Atlantic coast, with a cooler and more stable air mass expected to extend inland across ern VA and nern NC. Scattered showers and storms will focus along those boundaries with diurnal heating through the afternoon. While convection will again be weekly-steered and sheared, and slow-moving, a high DCAPE environment in excess of 1000 J/kg will favor strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

Otherwise, it will be hot again, with temperatures mostly 90-95 F, and with generally persistence lows in the lwr 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 PM Saturday .

The medium-range models develop a low over the Deep South/ARKLATEX by Monday. Otherwise, the flow aloft will be somewhat diffuse, with the aforementioned low slowly drifting east-northeast and amplifying a weak trough before moving east through the region mid- to late- week. However, specifics with respect to the evolution of the low/trough are uncertain, resulting in a lower than normal forecast confidence Thursday onward. At the surface, south-southeasterly flow into the area off the Atlantic will persist, with high pressure to the east and relatively low pressure to the west. There is not very good agreement with the development and subsequent progression of a low developing in response to the low aloft, thus confidence with exactly if and when and how it would impact central NC is low at this time. Regardless of the coverage, still expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be diurnally driven and best chances to be across the southern portions of the area. Temperatures should be within a category or two of normal through the period, with the best chance for below normal highs on the days with more extensive cloud cover and convection. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 757 PM Saturday .

Isolated showers and storms continue across the area this evening with the most vigorous activity around the Triad sites and Rocky Mount. There has been a gradual weakening of storms since about 23Z and this trend should continue for the rest of the night with the loss of daytime heating and instability. Still looks like the best chance of overnight stratus will be in the northeast (RWI primarily) where IFR cigs could develop just before daybreak. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail. Additional showers and storms are expected on Sunday, perhaps a little earlier than what was seen today as there will be a stalled surface boundary across central NC. VCSH introduced at all TAF sites Sunday afternoon except RWI (may be too stable given today's convection).

Outlook: Humid, sely flow off the sw N. Atlantic/Gulf Stream will increase the probability of morning stratus/fog early to mid next week, along with mainly diurnal convection whose coverage may be enhanced by the proximity of a broad and weak area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Leins NEAR TERM . Leins SHORT TERM . MWS LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . Leins/MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi46 minSSE 310.00 miFair75°F68°F78%1014.2 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi50 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F65%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLHZ

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3W4N6CalmN5CalmNE5CalmSW3E7W4S4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW3NW4N4NW3W5CalmNW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoSE6E3E4N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N4NE7NE7NE6NE5N8N7N8N7N7CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.