Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wake Forest, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday August 22, 2019 2:55 PM EDT (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 11:59AM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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location: 35.97, -78.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 221702 rra
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
100 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure will remain in control of our weather
conditions into Friday. A cold front will move south across the
region Friday night and Saturday, bringing a good chance of
thunderstorms. The front will then bring cooler and cloudy
conditions for the weekend.

Near term today and tonight
As of 700 am Thursday...

strong heating, high moisture, and weak upper level disturbances
should bring a chance of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
again this afternoon and evening.

Another day of heating into the upper 80s to lower 90s will combine
with pw's of 2+ inches and dew points in the 70s to result in
moderate to high instability this afternoon (2000 to 2500 j kg
mlcapes). The main belt of westerlies will remain to our north but
there will likely be several disturbances in the mid upper level
flow to help trigger thunderstorms over nw-n north carolina this
afternoon. Similar to Wednesday, the thunderstorms that develop will
have enough energy to produce some wet microbursts. In addition, the
storms should be moving slowly and will drop locally heavy rain as
well. We will beef up storm chances into the 40 to 50 percent range
across the NW and N piedmont this afternoon, with 30-40 pop later
this afternoon and evening as these storms propagate ese. Highs
today should range between 90-95, with a few upper 80s in the far nw
piedmont.

The thunderstorms will again diminish during the evening hours.

However, a few clusters of showers storms may persist in the very
moist boundary layer well into the night. Lows generally 70-75.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 210 am Thursday...

strong to severe thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon and
evening.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing over portions wva and va
associated with the outflows and disturbances aloft early Friday.

Our region should be mainly cloud free with the exception of some
very early morning stratus and some residual high cirrus. Otherwise,
partly sunny skies will result in strong heating Friday. This will
lead to strong heating of the very moist boundary layer that will be
in place out ahead of the convection and the approaching front. As
highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s, pw's will be 2-2.25
inches, and resultant mlcapes should again reach over 2000 j kg.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop spread ese off the
blue ridge and into the piedmont during the day. As the front drops
slowly southward toward the region late in the day and during the
evening, additional convection is expected. The shear is again
expected to be weak, thus wet microbursts and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary hazards as these storms work through the region.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms should continue into the night
as the front and outflows slowly move se. The southern piedmont east
to the sandhills and SE piedmont, coastal plain will have the
highest pop for Friday night, with convection likely diminishing in
the nw-n piedmont overnight. Lows 65-70 north, and lower 70s south.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 245 am Thursday...

an interesting pattern setting up for the long term period, starting
with a cold front passage in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Models
generally agree this front will be located along the coast by 18z
Saturday; however, with the upper trough axis still to our west and
sw flow aloft, this will promote overrunning of a shallow low level
wedge of cooler and stable air that will move in from the north
behind the aforementioned front. The end result will be a mostly
cloudy, cooler, and potentially damp Saturday, ESP east of the
triad, with rainfall amounts of a couple tenths of an inch possible
in the post-frontal rain. Cooler too, with ample low cloudiness and
rain.

Meanwhile, it's worth noting as mentioned in the latest twoat, the
trough of low pressure located over the central bahamas is progged
by several models, including the latest ecmwf, to lift north and
merge with the aforementioned cold front remnants off the SE coast
on Sunday. Fortunately these models keep any low pres development
well off the coast, but should this happen, central nc may actually
benefit from this pattern by way of increased N NE flow which would
advect drier air into our area from the north. On the other hand, a
front that stalls closer to the immediate coast would warrant pops
across our eastern zones for Sunday. But the trends have tended to
favor the drier option. Finally, such vigorous NE flow would keep
temps below normal for daytime highs.

That system will exit to our NE on Monday, with mainly dry weather
continuing for our area. The next short wave will then approach
from the west Monday night and Tuesday, with climo or higher pops
needed for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday with the passage of
this short wave.

.Aviation 17z Thursday through Wednesday

As of 100 pm Thursday...

24 hour TAF period:VFR conditions continue to remain dominant
across central nc. This trend should continue through the early
portion of the afternoon evening hours, with deteriorating
conditions (periods of ifr MVFR) possible with thunderstorm
development. Timing of evening convection has been a bit difficult
to pinpoint, but expecting to see a general NW to SE movement with
any multicellular clusters that do form. Thus, have introduced vcts
along with tsra tempo groups across the triad terminals (kint, kgso)
between 21z 5pm and 02z 10pm, with an hour or so delay as you head
east. Can't rule out some isolated airmass storm development out
ahead of this main line, but will account for that with amendments
as needed. Any storms that do impact terminals will result in
periods of reduced visibilities, ceilings, and gusty winds up to
40kts. Tonight, storm coverage diminishes from west to east, leading
to steadily clearing skies. Can't rule out some patchy fog stratus
formation, especially in areas that see appreciable rainfall
Thursday evening.

Looking ahead: beyond 18z Friday through Wednesday... Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday across northern nc
early in the afternoon before dispensing across the area into Friday
night. Sub-vfr CIGS vsbys will be common with any storms that do
impact terminals. A cold front is set to pass through the region
Friday night into Saturday, introducing widespread sub-vfr
conditions that could linger much of the weekend, especially across
the southern terminals. Can't rule out some brief breaks in the
cigs vsbys late Saturday Sunday across the northern terminals, but
expecting deteriorating conditions once again as the front lifts
back north into the first half of next week.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Badgett
near term... Badgett
short term... Badgett
long term... Np
aviation... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County Airport, NC11 mi76 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F73°F56%1016.6 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC15 mi65 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy94°F73°F51%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLHZ

Wind History from LHZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8SW8SW5SW6S4SW5SW5S6S6SW6SW6NW5S7S6SW7SW5CalmSW3W5W3S6S5S7
1 day agoS9S7W7SW8SW5S3CalmS4SW4SW3SW5SW3SW4SW3S4S6S6SW5SW8SW8SW9SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.