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FXUS62 KRAH 040843 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 343 AM EST Mon Dec 04 2023

SYNOPSIS
A couple of moisture-starved clipper lows will move across the region today and again late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the region for much of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 157 AM Monday...

A moisture starved upper level disturbance will move east across the region late this afternoon and early evening with no significant weather.

Clear and cooler tonight.

The deep moisture has shifted offshore with a cold front early today. Lingering high level cloudiness continued associated with the jet aloft. Upstream, a closed mid/upper low was located nearing the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This system is forecast to push east today, but weaken with time. Some cloudiness will increase again later today as this system moves east across the region. Dry air is expected to win out east of the mountains, with only virga expected and no measurable showers. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today with highs in the 60s to near 70 SE.

After the weak upper system exits to our east this evening, expect ridging centered over the lower MS Valley to shift east. Expect generally clear skies tonight with lows in the 30s to near 40 SE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Monday...

Another mid/upper level disturbance and upper trough will approach then cross the region later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Other than an increase in mid/upper level moisture and cloudiness Tue-Tue night, little significant weather is expected. Expect increasing high cloudiness Tuesday, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s SE. Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tuesday night with lows in the 37-44 range. There is little chance of rainfall with this system - as most models suggest coastal development well offshore and moving away (late Tue-Tue night).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 340 AM Monday...

Another potent shortwave will move through central NC on Wednesday morning, accompanied by strong mid-level height falls as much as 8- 12 dam. The associated surface low will be east of the NC coast, and it will continue to deepen and move NE into the Atlantic on Wednesday. The precipitation associated with the surface low will be largely confined to the immediate coast, and the air mass inland will be dry with PW values only 50-70% of normal. Despite this, the GFS and ECMWF still depict some very light rain from the upper feature across portions of central NC continuing into Wednesday morning, even while the NAM and Canadian are dry. There is also some ensemble support, with a lot more of the 00z EPS members having some precipitation compared to previous runs. So increased POPs Wednesday morning to at least slight for most of the area outside of our W and SW counties, and added low chance in the far NE. This is still lower than the latest NBM, but didn't want to change too much from the previous forecast and there is still disagreement among the guidance. Any rain should be confined to the immediate coast by Wednesday afternoon as strong NW flow aloft behind the shortwave will bring in even drier air. Regardless of precipitation, mid and high clouds are expected on Wednesday especially NE. This combined with the CAA will help keep high temperatures in the upper-40s far north to mid-50s far south, which is below normal. NW winds could gust to 15-25 mph on Wednesday due to a strong pressure gradient between the offshore low and a high building east from the lower MS Valley.

Clear skies will prevail from Wednesday night into Thursday with deep NW flow as surface high pressure approaches from the TN Valley and Deep South. Wednesday night will be chilly with lows ranging from the mid-20s to lower-30s, and brisk NW winds helping wind chills drop into the lower-to-mid-20s. Highs on Thursday will again be below normal. A moderating trend will then ensue on Friday as the surface high shifts offshore and the flow becomes southwesterly.
This will bring increasing clouds and help temperatures warm back above normal (highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s on Friday and 60s everywhere this weekend).

Shortwave energy moving east into the Plains will spur surface cyclogenesis on Friday night - Saturday. Precipitation chances over central NC will hold off until Saturday night as a warm front lifts through the area, followed by better chances on Sunday with a cold front approaching from the west. There are still some timing differences in the guidance this far out (with the GFS and Canadian faster than the ECMWF), but the models are overall in good agreement on showing a deepening area of sub-1000 mb low pressure lifting north along the cold front from the TN Valley into the Great Lakes region. With strong mid-level height falls and a surge of moisture, this appears to be the next chance of widespread precipitation across central NC. So continue high chance POPs everywhere on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1235 AM Monday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance will bring some VFR CIGS this afternoon across the north, then clearing behind the disturbance by late day.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through late week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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