Wake Forest, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wake Forest, NC

June 18, 2024 2:49 AM EDT (06:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 4:34 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wake Forest, NC
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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 180503 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. Moisture will increase across the area late this week into this weekend, bringing some increased rain chances to the Sandhills/Southern Coastal Plain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 935 PM Monday...

An upper level high remains over North Carolina, while a surface high sits east of the mid-Atlantic states over the Atlantic Ocean.
The southeast surface flow will continue to bring in warmer, more humid air into the region. Tonight's forecast remains dry, but some high clouds from thunderstorms over Virginia are moving into the region. While this should bring some additional cloud cover, it should have little effect on overnight lows, which will be in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 159 PM Monday...

The synoptic pattern will become increasingly warm and dry as we progress through the week. Mid level heights will continue to rise, generally reaching 596-597dm by the time we reach the middle of the week. With the upper ridge parked directly overhead and the surface ridge offshore, we'll see a continued period of dry weather with above normal temps. Guidance is showing an overall decrease in PW's across the area throughout the week and it's conceivable that even fewer storms will develop across the western Piedmont Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture will still pool adjacent to the mountains but mid level subsidence and increasingly warm 500mb temps will make it difficult for storms to develop. As such, PoPs will remain in the single digits or near zero through the middle of the week. Afternoon temps will reach the lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will range from the lower to mid 60s, with about 2-3 degrees of warming expected for Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 245 PM Monday...

The main story in the extended continues to be the heat risk, especially the latter part of the weekend into early next week. Rain chances look to slowly ramp up during this time as well, with the best chances appearing early next week.

An anomalously strong 598 dm ridge will extend into the area from the Atlantic and northern Mid-Atlantic through the first half of the weekend. At the surface, this will translate to a broad area of high pressure over the northern Atlantic that will promote largely dry and increasingly hot temperatures into early next week. The bulk of the heat looks to happen late Fri and Sat, lingering potentially into early next week. High temperatures Thu will start out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, rising into the mid to upper 90s over the weekend and perhaps lingering into Mon. Heat indices in the upper 90s are expected to rise into the triple digits over the upcoming weekend, perhaps as high as 105 in portions of the Triangle.

As we head into late Sun and the first part of next week, a number of ensemble solutions are showing potential influence from a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes that will try to bring an approaching cold front in from the northwest. At the same time, the mid-level ridge appears to weaken and move east over the southwest Atlantic. This pattern shift could allow for an uptick in showers and storms, particularly by late Sun and Mon as a front approaches and a lee trough sets up.

In addition to a front, there may also be some influence from a surface trough currently located east of the Bahamas. NHC currently notes that this disturbance could move into a favorable area for potential tropical development as it tracks west-northwestward. It currently has a 30-percent chance of development as it tracks toward the coast of the southeast US late Thu or Fri. While a number of the GEFS/ECS members show some kind of low approaching the coast, there remains a lot of uncertainty on its track and what strength it would be if it does indeed develop. For what its worth, the latest GFS continues the theme of some open wave moving along the Carolinas Fri/Sat and perhaps Sun before lifting off on Mon, but there has been little run-to-run consistency. If any system were to take a track along the SE US, it could bring more cloud cover and increased rain chances ahead of next week's front, thereby possibly resulting in somewhat lower highs than currently anticipated. As it stands now, Thu/Fri/Sat are largely expected to be dry, with any rain chances mainly confined with the sea-breeze over the Sandhills to southern Coastal Plain.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period as dry high pressure remains anchored over central NC. Light ssely sfc flow will continue through the period.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions should persist through Friday.
Moisture and the chance for showers will return this weekend, especially near KFAY/KRDU/KRWI.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLHZ TRIANGLE NORTH EXECUTIVE,NC 11 sm24 mincalm10 smClear68°F61°F78%30.23
KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC 16 sm58 minSSE 0610 smMostly Cloudy75°F63°F65%30.22
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Raleigh/Durham, NC,




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