Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wake Forest, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

* A hard freeze this morning will end the growing season.

* Another chilly day expected with brisk winds and below normal temperatures.

Vigorous shortwave energy crossing the area through the base of the near-record deep trough continues to trigger areas of light snow, aided by deep mixing and steep low level lapse rates. This precipitation will remain generally light, perhaps leading to isolated spots of a light dusting on grass but little else, given the warm pavement. We will continue to see an enhancement in surface winds and gusts just ahead of and with these light snow areas. The trough is expected to shift E of the area by mid morning, and will be followed by mostly clear skies with just scattered mid clouds at most through the day as subsidence takes over and deepens. Cold surface high pressure will build in from the SW, but the tight MSLP gradient between it and low pressure over New England will keep us in a blustery pattern with frequent gusts to 20-30 mph until late afternoon, when surface winds will diminish with the onset of decoupling. With continued CAA, low level thicknesses will be ~70 m below normal, supporting highs of 45-50, despite good insolation.

Skies will be fair heading into this evening with rapid cooling as the surface winds fall off. However, a batch of mid level moisture now over the Midwest and associated with a warm front aloft is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic region and NC tonight, resulting in a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies, mainly over northern sections. And based on the favorable vertical thermal structure, including high low-mid level stability, winds increasing with height to fast WNW mid level flow, and low pressure to our NNE with ridging to our W, some orographic enhancement of these clouds is likely.
This should result in a less-cold night, but still below normal, with lows generally 30-35. -GIH

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

* A sun-filled and slightly cool day.

The surface high will continue to modify as it settles over the Southeast states, while broad shallow troughing holds over E NOAM.
Deep subsidence will persist, with a steady NW steering flow and a dry column, so expect very few clouds during the day. Thicknesses will still be around 15-20 m below normal, but with lots of sunshine, highs should just be slightly below normal, in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Toward sunset, a mid level jet streak diving through the Mid Atlantic region will bring another batch of mid level moisture, leading to a trend to partly cloudy skies, especially across the N. Expect lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. -GIH

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal fire danger risk Thu

* Moderating temperatures to above normal Friday onward

* Limited rain chances Sun and Mon

High pressure to our west over the TN valley region Thu will settle over the Carolinas Fri before moving off the SE coast on Sat.
Guidance depicts gradually rising heights and thicknesses, favoring a continued warming trend from the upper 50s to mid 60s Thu to mid to upper 60s by Sat. We are still watching a backdoor cold front that may slide into our NE zones Sat morning. Right now, guidance remains unclear how far SW it may get, with the GFS the furthest west into the Triangle, whereas other data suggest just the northern Coastal Plain. For now, will split the difference, with low 60s over just the NE on Sat. Most of this period will be sunny, but it does appear there is a good signal for orographic cirrus Thu across the northern and northwest Piedmont with a favorable jet pattern. And on Sat, we could see some mid to high clouds with a warm front lifting north into the OH valley.

It appears the latest ensemble, deterministic, and AI guidance has been trending drier for the Sun and Mon period. These solutions show a system tracking to our north into the New England area. With the energy skirting to the north of us and high pressure off the coast, a dry and breezy southwest wind is favored Sun. Sun could be the warmest day of the period with low to perhaps mid 70s. The system may bring a cold front into the area Mon or early Tue, but its passage also appears to be dry at this point.

In regards to fire concerns, Thu and Fri will remain quite dry with RH levels in the upper 20s to low-mid 30s. However, gusts will weaken with high pressure settling overhead. Thu could be a marginal risk with gusts perhaps up to 20 mph. Gusty winds are expected again Sunday between 25 and 30 mph, but RH levels will increase into the 40s to low 50s to keep fire concerns at a minimum.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 625 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will dominate central NC terminals for the next 24 hours. Fair skies with generally sct mid-level clouds at 80k-15k ft AGL are expected through the day. Surface winds will be from the WNW or W at 10-16 kts with frequent gusts up to 20-28 kts for much of the day, until around 22z. A mid-level cig is possible late in the period (after 02z) at GSO/RDU/RWI. There is a good chance for low level wind shear conditions starting after 02z as well, with surface winds from the SW under 10 kts and winds just aloft from the SW at 35-40 kts.

Looking beyond 12z Wed, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all sites through Sat, under high pressure. -GIH

FIRE WEATHER
As of 945 PM Monday...

* An Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today for central and eastern portions of NC.

Although recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, abnormally dry conditions persist across the region. After coordination with the NCFS, it has been determined that a combination of low relative humidity levels of 25 to 30 percent and with frequent westerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph will lead to elevated fire danger and an increased risk of adverse fire behavior.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043- 073>078-083>086-088-089.