Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Knoxville, TN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:22PM Monday August 19, 2019 5:07 PM EDT (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 9:32AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knoxville, TN
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location: 35.97, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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Fxus64 kmrx 191851
afdmrx
area forecast discussion
national weather service morristown tn
251 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Short term (tonight and Tuesday)... Mid upper level ridging
to our west will continue to extend into our area for the short term
period, with the air mass over our region undergoing little change.

Ongoing convection is expected to wane quickly toward sunset,
with a mostly clear sky over much of the area tonight. Model
soundings for tomorrow look similar to today. Expect convection to
fire first in the higher terrain around noon, and outflow
boundaries moving into the valley may trigger isolated convection
there as well as the afternoon progresses. Mav temps look too low
for MAX temperatures Tuesday as has been the case recently, so
will go higher than guidance again. Heat index values should top
out from the mid 90s to around 100 across most of the valley.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)... We begin Tuesday
night with a distinct shortwave moving from il in into southern
ohio as the strong ridge in the southern plains begins to slowly
retreat. A few cams are showing an MCS moving ese into parts of
northeast tn and southwest va between 03 and 05z. Deep layer shear
is substantially weaker over our region compared to farther
north, but there will be lingering instability well into the night
with mlcapes progged at 1000-1500 j kg. If the convective complex
has a strong enough cold pool, think it's feasible that
showers storms will impact at least the northern valley and
southwest va between 03 and 06z. The SPC has put the entire region
in a marginal risk Tuesday night, so have increased pops to
higher chance category the first half of the night. The main
threat would be damaging winds.

The deep layer ridge over the south central u.S. Will further
retreat to the western u.S. Wednesday allowing a longwave trough to
begin developing in the great lakes and ohio valley. This will force
a cold front slowly southward. Before this front gets here,
southwesterly WAA and lingering ridging aloft will maintain very hot
and humid weather Wednesday. Heat indices in the low 100's will
continue across parts of the southern valley. Diurnal convection
will be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with projected soundings
showing increasing moisture and instability along with limited
capping. Pwats will range from 1.60 to 1.90 inches with MLCAPE of
1500-2000 j kg. At this time, will go with chance pops for scattered
convection Wednesday since the forcing will still be well to the
north.

The mid level trough will continue deepening Wednesday night and
Thursday pushing the cold front into ky, and perhaps into the tn
valley by Thursday afternoon. The GFS remains faster with this front
compared to the ecmwf. Due to the strong ridge and august
climatology, am leaning toward the slower ecmwf. Nevertheless, the
increasing large scale forcing for ascent, deep moisture, and
instability will cause showers storms to be on the increase.

Maintained chance pops Wednesday night increasing to likely
Thursday. The boundary still looks to struggle to completely push
through our region Thursday night and Friday, so its exact placement
remains uncertain. Since the boundary will be oriented e-w somewhere
in our vicinity and the mid upper flow will be wnw allowing weak
disturbances to ripple through, we will continue to see fairly
widespread coverage of thunderstorms during peak heat with lingering
showers at night. Kept chance pops Thursday night with likely pops
central southern areas Friday. The high moisture environment and
multiple rounds of convection could lead to localized flooding in a
few spots, but recent dry weather should keep this isolated. Went a
little below nbm numbers for temps Thursday and Friday due to
increased clouds.

The upper trough will slowly pull away Saturday and Sunday with a
weak overall flow regime returning to the tn valley and southern
appalachians as the northern stream jet returns more zonal. The old
frontal boundary will either wash out or retreat back north, so have
chance pops for mainly diurnal convection and temps near normal late
august values. Further height rises Monday and deepening
southwesterly flow will allow for temps warming above normal
again.

Preliminary point temps pops
Chattanooga airport, tn 72 96 75 94 10 20 30 40
knoxville mcghee tyson airport, tn 70 94 72 93 10 20 40 40
oak ridge, tn 71 94 74 93 10 20 40 40
tri cities airport, tn 65 92 68 92 10 20 30 40

Mrx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Tn... None.

Va... None.

Lw rg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN11 mi2.2 hrsVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy94°F66°F40%1016.3 hPa
Oak Ridge, TN15 mi2.2 hrsSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy96°F66°F37%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTYS

Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5E4Calm--E4SW3CalmCalm------Calm----E3CalmCalm--Calm--3NW5--3
1 day ago3NW5----NE5NE3NE3NE4CalmCalmE3Calm--N3E4NE3Calm----CalmCalm3W5W6
2 days ago--NW4--W5N4--S3Calm------E3Calm--NE4CalmCalm--3N4--533

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Morristown, TN (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.