Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:02AM||Sunset 6:33PM||Tuesday March 2, 2021 9:40 PM EST (02:40 UTC)||Moonrise 10:33PM||Moonset 9:16AM||Illumination 80%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knoxville, TNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMRX 022321 AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 621 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021
UPDATE. FOR 00Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM. (Tonight and Wednesday) .
The high clouds are rapidly exiting the area at the moment, but clouds will begin to increase again quickly as an upper low over the Mississippi Valley moves east. This upper low will track by to our south overnight. Models have continued the trend of suppressing most of the precipitation to the south where the better forcing and moisture will be located, but we will see an increase in clouds, and some light precipitation should make it into mainly southern parts of our area tonight. Model thermal profiles suggest that there will be enough evaporative cooling to produce a wintry mix over the higher mountain peaks with a little light snow, sleet and/or freezing rain possible. However, precipitation amounts will be very light, with no more than a few hundredths of an inch of total QPF where any wintry precip would be most likely to occur.
Rapid drying will begin late tonight and continue into Wednesday behind this system as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Wednesday will feature abundant sunshine, with temperatures near to slightly above seasonal normals.
LONG TERM. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) .
Outside of low-end chances of precipitation in far southeastern portions of the area Friday into Saturday, the extended period will likely be dry with quiet weather prevailing. Temperatures are generally near normal, cooler Friday/Saturday, then warming above normal by early next week.
Wednesday Night through Saturday
The period commences with the area under the influence of high pressure to the southeast and northwest flow aloft. This is given mid/upper troughing off the Atlantic coast and ridging centered over the High Plains. This setup helps keep seasonal temperatures in place heading into Thursday with aforementioned ridging building ahead of a cutoff low in the southwest. Surface high pressure is also noted well to the north on Thursday, lending northerly flow. A weak cold front is also evidenced south of this surface high, likely keeping areas in southwestern Virginia and near Kentucky notably cooler. A seasonally cool night is expected area-wide heading into Friday morning following northerly flow and negative thermal (1,000- 500mb thickness) advection. With these factors in mind, much of the area is likely to be near to below freezing by morning.
As we head into Friday, the aforementioned cutoff system/surface low will have progressed through the Southern Plains, is the main focus into the early part of the weekend. Looking at the dynamics during this timeframe, positive trough tilting and stronger winds downstream than upstream are noted. With these factors and strong high pressure to the north, limited overall cyclogenesis is expected with a track south of the area. With much of the jet dynamics and moisture staying to the south, slight chance PoPs are largely limited to far southeastern portions of the area Friday night into Saturday. Based on vertical profiles, much of the precipitation that falls, if any, would be rain with a mix of light snow in the TN/NC if surface temperatures are cold enough. Otherwise, associated height falls, thermal/thickness troughing, and northerly low-level flow will allow for a largely dry and notably cooler day on Saturday. Depending on how calm winds can become with subsequent high pressure, temperatures may drop well into the 20s across much of the area Saturday night.
Sunday through Tuesday
High pressure remains in control for the end of the extended period, keeping the area dry into early next week. Notable mid/upper ridging builds in from the west, leading to significant height rises locally. Surface high pressure shifts to our east Monday and Tuesday, producing generally southerly flow in the lower levels. With these factors and ensemble mean indications of 500mb height anomalies of +5 to +10 dam, a warming trend to above normal temperatures area-wide is likely by early next week. This is also confirmed by high ensemble/deterministic confidence for a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), or high-latitude cooling, during this timeframe and beyond.
AVIATION. 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A few scattered showers are moving through southeast TN, and could briefly impact KCHA over the first few hours of the TAFs. Could briefly bring conditions down to the MVFR range, but it should bounce back up after rain exits. Otherwise VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 62 38 66 37 / 50 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 59 37 61 33 / 20 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 60 36 61 33 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 57 34 56 29 / 10 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . NONE. TN . NONE. VA . NONE.
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|Knoxville, McGhee Tyson Airport, TN||11 mi||47 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Light Rain||46°F||25°F||44%||1019.5 hPa|
|Oak Ridge, TN||15 mi||47 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||44°F||29°F||55%||1021 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTYS
Wind History from TYS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||S|
|2 days ago||N||NE||N||NE||N||N||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||SW||SW||SW|
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