Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:55PM Sunday September 27, 2020 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 938 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves flat.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms, then a chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 271333 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 933 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will build over the area today and tonight. A slow moving cold front will approach the area early this week and move through Wednesday night and early Thursday. Cooler high pressure expected to build over the area late week and next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 930 AM Sun . High pressure surface and aloft was located over NC this morning and will persist into this evening. Widespread radiational fog and low stratus continues to plague the area this morning, with vsbys ranging from 1/4-1 mile. Although the DFA was allowed to expire at 9 AM, we have issued SPS/MWS statements valid until 11 AM for continued local poor visibilities. There should be rapid improvement in visibilities around 10 AM as convective mixing begins to scour out the low levels. The low ceilings however, will linger into early afternoon with expected weak convective mixing. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon, but given deep layer dry air, subsidence aloft and lack of forcing will keep mention of pops out of forecast at this time. Low level thickness values support temps near climo, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. As of 3 AM Sun . Shortwave will push through the area tonight and may be enough to support isolated to scattered showers. Some guidance keeps the area dry, while others like the EC, NAM and HRRR show an area of light showers moving in from the SW and pushing through the area overnight. Will continue sc to low chance pops with light qpf amts. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Think increasing clouds should limit fog potential.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM Sun . Unsettled with temps near or slightly above climo through mid next week, then cooler and drier late next week.

Monday . Weak high pressure and upper ridge will be tempo in place, leading to mainly dry weather with warm and humid conditions. Could see an iso to widely sct shower impinge on the Coastal Plain counties the second half of the day as PW's begin to surge, but main forcing for ascent will remain west of the region through the day.

Monday night through Wednesday . The upper flow is forecast to become more amplified next week with an Eastern upper trough deepening across the MS River Valley. The leading edge of the trough will be associated with a strong surface cold front which will move slowly across the Mid- Atlantic, producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Models continue to converge into better agreement with the synoptic pattern and timing of the sfc features. Complex pattern expected, as cut off low develops at the base of digging trough over the TN Valley and then pivoting through the southeastern states. This feature will move through the SE US Wed inducing sfc cyclogenesis along the front in the Carolinas, then becoming vert stacked as it lifts up the Mid- Atlantic and NE coast Thu. A variety of weather impacts possible with this scenario, including heavy rain with localized flooding, and a potential severe weather threat. Details on mesoscale features have yet to be worked out, with ECM soln indicating heaviest axis of rain across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, while the GFS brings heaviest precip shield through E NC with at least several inches of storm total rainfall. Nevertheless, enough model agreement amongst global models, as well as their respective ensembles, to raise pops to 60-70% for the period later Mon night through early Wed. Temps will be warm and humid this period with highs in the lower 80s with lows in the upr 60s to low 70s.

Thursday through Saturday . Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front late week into next weekend with troughing aloft and sfc high building in. Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s this period.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 645 AM Sun . High confidence in widespread IFR/LIFR conditions this morning with areas of dense fog and low stratus. Most sites reporting LIFR, given the calm winds and abundant low level moisture in place. Conditions may drop below airport minimums at times early this morning. Cigs expected to lift to MVFR by mid morning with VFR conditions returning in the afternoon. Patchy fog and low clouds will be possible overnight and early Monday morning, but think increasing mid level clouds will limit development.

Long Term /Mon through Thu/ . As of 330 AM Sun . Mainly VFR after some morning fog on Mon as high pres will be in control. Sub-VFR chances increase later Mon night and esp Tue and Wed as widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms affect the region ahead of a slow moving cold front. VFR and mo sunny returns by Thu.

MARINE. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 930 AM Sun . Main concern this morning is areas of dense marine fog which are expected to dissipate rapidly after 10 AM.

Latest obs show light NW/N winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Weak high pressure will continue over the waters today into tonight and other than the fog this morning, expect excellent conditions across the waters. Winds will be backing through the day, becoming S/SW by afternoon and remaining 10 kt or less. Seas 2-4 ft today will be subsiding to 2-3 ft tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 330 AM Sun . Monday continues with good boating conditions with winds generally 10 kt or less and seas 2-4 ft. A cold front will slowly approach the waters Tue, likely not pushing through until mid week. S/SW 10-20 kt Tue increasing to 15-25 kt Tue night into Wed night with higher gusts. Confidence is increasing that waters will see a period of SCA conditions beginning Tue as seas respond by building 6+ ft. Conditions will begin to improve on Thu as winds become wrly and diminish, with high seas following suit.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . JME/CQD SHORT TERM . CQD LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . CQD/TL MARINE . JME/CQD/TL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 72°F 1015 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi46 min 73°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi60 min N 1 G 2.9 72°F 74°F1015.6 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi46 min 74°F3 ft
44086 30 mi59 min 73°F3 ft
44095 38 mi46 min 73°F4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi47 minNNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F75%1015.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi47 minW 510.00 miFair72°F64°F78%1015.2 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi48 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F68°F67%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S3E8E3NE5N4N5CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3NW4NW4--CalmNW6NW6
1 day agoE8E9
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S7S8S4CalmS5S5S6S9S6S4S6S5S9SW4
2 days agoS4W4W3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7CalmSE4CalmNE3E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:54 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:22 PM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.42.12.73.23.33.12.621.30.80.70.91.42.12.93.53.83.73.32.71.91.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:19 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:36 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.21.92.52.93.13.12.721.30.90.70.81.222.83.43.83.83.52.81.91.10.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.