Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manns Harbor, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:42PM Sunday April 18, 2021 5:46 PM EDT (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 345 Pm Edt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves flat.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manns Harbor, NC
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location: 35.98, -75.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 181940 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 340 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure will move past the area on Monday. A strong cold front moves through the area late Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west Thursday and Friday. Next storm system will arrive in the region by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 315 PM Sun . Southeastern CONUS under zonal flow this afternoon with main feature of note being a well-defined shortwave currently digging into the Ozarks. This energy will march eastward across TN overnight and approach eastern NC by Monday morning resulting in 30-60 m mid-level height falls. The shortwave is forecast to be over OBX by the end of the short term period.

Surface pattern is rather diffuse with a poorly defined surface low analyzed south of Cape Fear. Good diurnal heating has allowed the sea breeze to slowly march inland, although its most noticeable impacts amount to only agitated cumulus and a briefly lived shower. The HRRR remains insistent an isolated shower threat remains particularly after 20z or so and left iso mention for this afternoon.

Any precip threat comes to an end inland with loss of heating but shower coverage could increase offshore as low pressure gradually migrates closer to shore, and a few stray showers could graze OBX overnight. Otherwise, dry conditions expected with clouds building in from the south. Clearer conditions expected along and north of Hwy 264 and some patchy fog is possible here as Td depressions sink. Temperatures bottom out to the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. As of 330 PM Sun . Good amount of PVA aloft in congruence with low-level convergence as weak low lifts north will support a more widespread area of precipitation tomorrow morning into the afternoon, and maintained chance to likely PoPs in the forecast. Main question for tomorrow is the possibility of any stronger storms, with limiting factor being moisture availability. PWATs are likely to remain at an inch or less but a brief period of southerly return flow could briefly boost surface Tds enough to build some instability across the area. Both RAP and NAM 3k soundings suggest CAPEs of 600-800 J/kg as well as effective shear of 35-40 kt. The threat appears very isolated but a more robust storm could produce some gusty winds. A few rumbles of thunder appear probable tomorrow and kept TS mention in the forecast. Threat will be largely offshore by end of the period as shortwave energy races eastward and surface front follows suit, bringing drier air with it.

Low-level thicknesses change little from today and maintained highs in the low to mid 70s, mid to upper 60s OBX.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 333 AM Sun . A cold front will remain stalled to the south through the middle of next week, with weak areas of low pressure moving along it. A strong front will push through the area Wednesday afternoon, with much cooler air behind it. A potentially strong low pressure area will approach by next weekend.

Tuesday . Mainly dry as transitory high slides through ahead of next deep shortwave trough digging through the ctrl plains states. Temps near climo in the 70s for highs.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . Area will be under influence of strengthening return flow Tue night and esp Wed, as stronger front is progged to push through by late in the day. 18/00z guidance in better agreement with respect to timing, pushing the front offshore by early Wed evening. Increased pops a bit from previous forecast, but global model suite still in disagreement on how much moisture return is available for thunderstorm development. Latest ECM is a bit wetter, and therefore bumped up pops a bit, esp nrn half, where 30-50% pops fcst. Modest instability and strong shear (50+ kt bulk shear) in place, so if any storms can organize, a severe threat may be in play.

Wednesday night through Saturday . Much cooler and drier airmass expected behind the front with high pressure building in from the W and upper troughing. We could have some Frost/Freeze concerns, mainly inland zones. Coldest night now looks to be Thu night/Fri morning as center of high pres will be closer to ENC. EC/GFS mos guidance show lows falling into the low to mid 30s. Have not gone quite as cold as guid yet as some light wind may be in place along with some cirrus potential. Highs Thu and Fri generally in the 60s with dewpoints falling into the 30s. Temps rebound back to near climo Fri and Sat as air mass moderates. 18/00Z global models all have a potential strong storm system or cold front impacting the area by late Sat into Sun, and have inc pops to high chc. Naturally, timing issues abound in this long range in time, so will not advertise any likelies yet.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Mon/ . As of 150 PM Sun . VFR conditions over the terminals this afternoon with broken 5-6 kft cumulus field developing with diurnal heating. A few isolated showers are possible along seabreeze circulations late this afternoon but coverage is too sparse to warrant mention in TAFs. Guidance hints at some fog formation tonight with the usually-reliable LAMP being a notable exception. Most likely spot for fog formation would be for terminals from EWN north, where cloud coverage is expected to be more limited. Confidence is too low to warrant explicit mention.

Scattered TSRA coverage expected tomorrow with approach of upper level system and surface cold front. Localized areas of sub-VFR conditions are possible in heavier activity.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/ . As of 333 AM Sun . Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Mainly dry Tue, then another chc of showers or storms Wed as a strong cold front approaches.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Monday/ . As of 340 PM Sun . Pleasant day across the waters this afternoon with predominantly easterly winds at 5-10 kts and seas around 1-2 feet. Conditions expected to remain quiet overnight as weak low pressure meanders north towards the waters, with winds falling to around 5 kt or less by daybreak Monday.

Conditions expected to change pretty quickly tomorrow as low lifts northward and cold front races towards the waters. SW flow expected to increase to 10-15 kt by the afternoon across southern waters with weaker easterly to northeasterly flow elsewhere before front crosses early evening. Guidance differs on intensity of surge behind the boundary and favored a somewhat stronger solution, favoring northerly winds at 15-20 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible for outer central waters but window of impacts too small to warrant any headlines. Seas build to 3-4 feet, particularly for central waters, in response to the surge.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/ . As of 333 AM Sun . Have used a heavier blend of the NBM, as NWPS too low on seas through Tue. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday, pushing through Wednesday afternoon and early evening. SCA conditions likely to develop Wed afternoon with gusty SW flow ahead of the front, then stronger NW winds 20-30 kt and seas 4-7 ft developing behind it. Conditions improve with diminishing winds and seas by Thu.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . TL/MS MARINE . TL/MS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 19 mi46 min E 12 G 14 58°F 1011.3 hPa (-0.4)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 21 mi50 min 58°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 26 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 6 61°F1011.4 hPa (+0.0)
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 28 mi50 min 55°F2 ft
44086 30 mi33 min 56°F3 ft
44095 38 mi50 min 58°F2 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC15 mi51 minENE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F49°F65%1011.8 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC17 mi11 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F46°F62%1011.5 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC22 mi52 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F47°F52%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S6S5S6S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW7W3W3CalmNE6NE10E8E9SE9E6SE7E7E9E8
1 day agoSE10S5S3SW11SW9SW9SW9W8N13
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NE11NE11N10NE9NE9NE9NE8NE7E9NE6E5SE7SE8SE7
2 days agoSE3SE3NE6CalmCalmCalmN9N17
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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:17 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.12.72.11.51.10.80.81.11.62.12.62.82.72.41.91.410.70.81.11.72.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:22 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.232.621.50.90.60.60.81.21.72.12.42.42.11.71.30.90.70.711.52.12.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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