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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 1045 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect until 7 am est Monday...
Overnight..S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Waves around 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

AMZ200 122 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions are peaking as a strong cold front crosses the waters with a sharp wind shift and strong, gusty winds occurring. These will persist for the next few hours before subsiding considerably by Sunrise. Winds and seas will subside gradually through the day on Monday as high pressure builds back into the area and maintains control through the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 110607 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 107 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
A very strong cold front will cross the area late tonight/early Monday morning, bringing several hazardous impacts today and tonight. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1 AM Sun...Cold front is accelerating eastward, approaching the US Hwy 17 corridor currently. Wind gusts around 40-45 mph have been observed along and immediately behind the front, with weak convection also along the front. Expect the front to push off the coast within the next 2 hrs or so. Temps fall rapidly behind the front, with drops around 15 deg within just 20 min observed as the front began crossing the inner coastal plain.

Previous Discussion...Focus for the rest of tonight is still on brief but quite strong wind gusts immediately behind strong cold front that is traversing quickly through NC. Wind adv cont for some of the coastal zones where some stronger wind gusts could be observed.

Strong south/southeasterly winds will rapidly switch to become strong northwesterly winds as the cold front moves offshore and a low develops, trekking northeastward. While impacts will be low, rapid water level rises could occur soundside OBX as the front passes through. See the COASTAL FLOODING section for more information. Precipitation will move out of marine zones by daybreak Monday, but strong winds will persist through the short term period. Lows are forecasted to reach the high 30s in the coastal plain and low- mid 40s along the coast after the frontal passage around daybreak Monday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 0330 PM Sunday...The short term period will start off with cool temperatures and strong wind gusts particularly in coastal regions. Northwest winds will gradually lessen and transition to northerly in the evening and temps will remain cool, with highs forecasted to be near 50 degrees Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 AM Sun...

Mon night...Lows get down into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and around 40 across the OBX.

Tue into the end of the week... Upper level pattern becomes more zonal as an upper level trough digs into the western CONUS this week. At the surface high pressure will remain over the Eastern Seaboard from Tuesday on into the end of the week with a dry cold front passing through the area on Wednesday. With a dry airmass in place over ENC through the week dont expect any precip chances but some high clouds will be possible with the frontal passage on Wed. Temps will remain about average to slightly below avg each day with highs in the upper 40s to 50s and lows in the upper 20s to 30s.

The weekend...The next impactful low pressure system for ENC potentially nears the area next weekend. Still too much variability with regards to upper level pattern, surface low placement, and speed of the system so leaving just a mention in the AFD for now and kept PoP's over the weekend at SChc to low end Chc at best Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1 AM Mon...Primary aviation threat over the next couple of hours is the very strong cold front that is currently crossing eastern NC front west to east. Abrupt wind shift along the front with breezy S to SW winds becoming strong W to NW winds, with gusts as high as 30-40 kt being observed. A brief period of LLWS near the front is possible as well with 850 mb flow shifting westerly slower than the surface flow. IFR ceilings are being observed along the immediately behind the front as well, with moderate rainfall.

Gusty NW winds continue through the early morning ours, with drier air advection in and gradually eroding ceilings around daybreak. VFR prevails thereafter with gradually diminishing NW flow. VFR continues tonight with a much drier and cooler airmass filling in, with only a very low chance of some shallow fog at PGV and EWN through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Light winds are expected beginning Monday night as high pressure ridge overspreads the Mid- Atlantic.
Expect primarily VFR conditions through the end of the period with clear skies forecast as ridging builds overhead.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 0330 PM Sun...A very strong cold front approaching from the west will bring deteriorating conditions through the rest of the day, with southerly pre-frontal winds currently gusting to gale force and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms could bring an additional threat for strong winds and waterspouts.
Wave heights will also increase steadily through the day peaking shortly after midnight as southerly windswell builds.

A 60+ kt LLJ will move over the waters tonight ahead of the strong cold front, bringing a brief window of storm force winds to the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras mainly beyond 10 nm offshore. Elsewhere, gales prevail, with at least a few gusts to near storm force possible as winds abruptly shift to NW for the larger bodies of water along and immediately behind the strong cold front that crosses the waters after midnight. Seas peak around 10-16 ft through the predawn hours Monday, making for extremely dangerous conditions for mariners.
Winds quickly ease and become NW'rly by Monday afternoon falling to 5-10 kts. In response to the weakening winds, seas will also quickly lower through the day Mon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...A dry cold front will track S across our waters Wed night into Thursday bringing the next threat for small craft conditions with 10-20 kt N'rly winds and 25+ kt gusts as the associated N'rly surge behind the cold front impacts our waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 0400 PM Mon...A very strong cold front will cross coastal areas after midnight tonight. Gusty S winds ahead of the front will abruptly shift to NW through the early morning hours, piling water up along the soundside Outer Banks, especially from Salvo to Nags Head and across Roanoke Island. While the max water level are likely to reach minor flood stage, be prepared for rapid water level rises (to near 3 ft/hr) as a brief period of very strong NW winds and rapid pressure falls occur immediately behind the front. A short-duration Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the soundside OBX north of Cape Hatteras Accordingly.

Additionally, large southerly windswell will build through the day today, peaking early Monday morning, with surf height reaching as high as 8-12 ft from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout tonight, with a High Surf Advisory in effect accordingly.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NCZ047-081- 195-196-203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ196-204- 205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-135>137- 150-230-231.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ152-154-156- 158.

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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Sun -- 04:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 AM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:27 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:12 PM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:12 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
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Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

Duck Pier
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Sun -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:03 AM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:31 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:15 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:15 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

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