Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:19 PM

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FXUS64 KTSA 031518 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1018 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Regional doppler radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms have shifted east of the forecast area this morning. Behind the departing complex, visible satellite depicts low-level stratus remaining intact across portions of eastern OK and northwest AR.
Latest model guidance has the stratus deck eroding/scattering out by the early afternoon hours, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies anticipated thereafter for most locations. Light northeasterly winds this morning will veer out of the southeast by early this afternoon. As a result, this will maintain a fairly moist and humid airmass into this evening, with dewpoints reaching the mid- upper 60s by sunset for most locations. With a marginally unstable airmass still in place, daytime heating may cause a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. Despite marginally sufficient (25-35kts) 0-6km bulk shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates into this afternoon, weak low-level winds and lack of a significant lifting mechanism should keep any convection that develops spotty and sub-severe through the afternoon. But since it is early May, will monitor trending conditions closely. Otherwise, unseasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail today, with high temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Mejia

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Additional storms will develop to the northwest later today along a another cold front that will move southeast into the area late tonight and into Saturday. Severe potential with this round of storms appears limited as activity begins to diminish Saturday afternoon. This boundary will stall to the south of the area late Saturday. Another round of storms will likely develop along the stalled boundary as an upper wave begins to move through the southern plains Saturday night. This activity will spread into the area late Saturday night and continue into Sunday. Storms should be out of the area by late in the day Sunday, and things should be quiet for the most part until later in the day Monday and Monday night. A strong upper system will lift through the mountain west region and into the high plains Monday evening, with storms expected to develop along the dry line to the west. These storms will track east with the highest chances for storms across NE OK and NW AR Monday night into Tuesday morning. For the rest of the forecast period, will continue with low PoPs across much of the area as weak disturbance traverse the area within strong mid level flow.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection will steadily wane across the region this morning with any remaining terminal impacts being short lived. Otherwise widely varying ceilings are likely through the morning with VFR, MVFR and periodic IFR levels likely. A trend toward rising ceilings and improving flight levels is expected by early afternoon. Low ceilings return overnight with thunderstorm chances increasing across NE OK terminals after midnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 63 78 61 / 10 30 80 50 FSM 82 64 81 66 / 30 10 70 40 MLC 81 65 79 64 / 30 20 60 60 BVO 79 60 77 56 / 10 40 80 40 FYV 81 60 80 60 / 20 10 70 40 BYV 79 60 79 60 / 20 10 70 30 MKO 79 62 77 62 / 20 20 70 50 MIO 79 61 77 59 / 10 30 70 30 F10 79 62 78 62 / 20 20 80 60 HHW 79 65 79 64 / 40 20 60 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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