Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:20 PM   Moonset 7:40 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 270144 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 844 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 844 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Storms have waned tonight across the region, with the rest of the night expected to be pretty quiet in the wake of the exiting convection. A few storms could try to redevelop late tonight within a modest moisture return regime, mainly after midnight, across portions of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas...though a bulk of the activity looks to remain out of our area. Any storms that do for have a low chance to become severe, with large hail the primary threat. Previous update made updates to PoPs/Wx/Thunder grids accounting for the trends in convection through the late afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape with a mild night in store across the region.

Bowlan

LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Overall coverage tomorrow morning will remain low with ongoing isolated warm advection activity. By afternoon, storms will have developed to the west along the dryline as an upper level system begins to move out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the central Plains. Severe potential will increase across parts of E OK from mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening. All modes of severe will be in play during this time. The severe threat will continue across the area for the overnight hours, but a transition to more of a heavy rainfall/flooding threat still appears likely Saturday night. Favorable low level and upper level jet structures will interact with deep moisture over the area (PWATS 1.5-2.0") and will be supportive of storms training over the same areas. Have issued a Flood Watch for most of E OK effective from 4pm Saturday to 1pm Sunday. Influences from the low level jet will begin to wane Sunday morning, and the heavy rain/flood threat will begin to diminish. However, the focus for additional storms/severe potential will shift across SE OK and NW AR Sunday afternoon and evening as the upper system begins to east northeast into the high Plains. Boundary pushes into the area on Monday, resulting in lower Rain and thunder chances that will continue for the early part of the next work week. Slightly higher chances for rain and storms return mid to late week as the next surface front approaches.



AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR ceilings will redevelop at all sites overnight and persist into Saturday morning, with conditions improving to VFR around midday Saturday. LLWS will also develop overnight due to a strong low level jet. Gusty south winds will prevail through the forecast period. Thunderstorm chances will increase later Saturday afternoon at the northeast Oklahoma sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 81 61 77 / 20 60 90 70 FSM 66 84 66 77 / 20 50 80 90 MLC 67 82 63 76 / 20 70 90 90 BVO 63 81 58 77 / 10 70 90 70 FYV 61 82 61 74 / 20 50 80 100 BYV 63 80 63 71 / 20 30 60 90 MKO 65 80 60 74 / 20 60 90 90 MIO 64 81 60 74 / 20 50 90 90 F10 66 79 60 76 / 20 70 90 80 HHW 66 80 63 73 / 20 60 80 90

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.

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