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FXUS64 KTSA 041125 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 525 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Brisk northwest winds continue early this morning behind cold front with surface low tracking through central MO. Wrap around low clouds expected to continue across far NE OK/NW AR this morning before clearing by afternoon with a few high clouds to the south. Winds will quickly subside this afternoon as surface high settles over the region.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Another reinforcing shot of cool/dry air will move into the region on Tuesday as upper trough digs across the eastern U.S. Slow warming trend will develop on Wednesday as southerly winds return with surface high shifting east.

Unseasonably warm/breezy conditions forecast on Thursday as upper ridging briefly builds over the southern Plains with high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to near 70 across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Elevated fire weather concerns expected Thursday afternoon with enhanced spread rates as southerly winds gust at 30-35 mph. Modest low level moisture return however will keep minimum RH values above critical levels. (Areas along and west of Highway 75 are forecast to fall into the 50-55 percent range).

Although operational models have come into better agreement concerning general evolution of storm system into the weekend, forecast uncertainties obviously remain this far into the extended periods. As upper trough digs out of the central Rockies, rain chances will begin to increase Friday night into Saturday ahead of approaching frontal boundary. Instability will be somewhat marginal, but went ahead and added low thunder chances across far SE OK/NW AR into Saturday. Although thermal profiles support the chance for precipitation to transition to snow or rain/snow mix behind the front, models hint at potential dry slot overspreading region ahead of mid level vort max, which could delay transition.
Regardless, it appears at this time that any snow amounts would be light with the best chance for wintry precip in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas before system becomes better organized to the northeast of the region.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Areas of low CIGS near 2kft will continue for the next couple of hours in northwest AR, otherwise skies will be mostly clear for the forecast period. Northwest winds this morning will become southwest by the afternoon with speeds dropping near or below 10 kts. Northwest winds will return to northeast OK Tuesday morning as another weak cold front passes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 36 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 56 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 58 35 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 56 32 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 53 32 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 52 37 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 55 34 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 53 33 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 F10 56 36 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 58 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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