Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 031054 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 654 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build over the area into the weekend, as low pressure lingers over the Atlantic. High pressure then strengthens offshore early next week, as a weak front moves into the region, and eventually pushes through the area by mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 645 AM Fri . Fcst on track with no changes planned.

Prev disc . Not much change in pattern with low pres well to the NE and high pres to the W. Atms will remain dry with cont mainly clr skies. Decent pres grdnt and mixing will lead to NW winds gusting 20 to 30 mph from mid to late morn thru the aftn. Highs will range from lower 60s NE coast to lower 70s SW.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. As of 255 AM Fri . The retrograding Atlantic low will lead to some clouds spreading onshore over the NE tier with cont mclr skies SW. Winds will diminish inland quickly this evening with lows in the low to mid 40s. Winds will remain breezy coast thru the night with lows mid 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As 330 AM Fri . Moderating conditions are expected into the weekend, as large low pressure system meanders off the Mid- Atlantic coast. High pressure then builds over the area Sunday, before moving offshore early next week. A weak boundary then moves into the area, leading to unsettled conditions through mid week.

Saturday and Sunday . Expansive, retrograding low pressure system will push south down the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday, as high pressure attempts to build in from the NW. Strong northerly flow will continue, especially across the Outer Banks, where some coastal flooding is possible (see section below). As the low moves further offshore Sunday, winds will eventually subside, though remain out of the north as high pressure moves closer. Expect a significant temperature gradient across the area both days, as ocean influence keeps temperatures in the 50s to low 60s across the Outer Banks and Pamlico-Albemarle peninsula, while temperatures climb into the upper 60s to low 70s to the south and west.

Monday through Thursday . High pressure will strengthen off the NC coast Monday, and then a weak boundary will move into Virginia pushing high pressure further offshore Tuesday. After some scattered sea breeze showers on Monday, more unsettled weather (a possibly a few thunderstorms) looks likely Tuesday through Thursday as this boundary remains to the north of the area, and then pushes south through Eastern NC as a cold front sometime mid week. Low level heights will increase substantially during this period, which will lead to warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 645 AM Fri . High confidence in VFR conditions through this TAF cycle. Skies are clr over the region and shld cont that way much of the day. Late today some Cu may begin to shift onshore NE tier but looks to remain well E of taf sites. The Cu will slowly spread SW tonight but again looks like these clouds will remain mainly E of taf sites. NW winds will gust 20 to 25 kt from mid morn thru late aftn then diminish quickly this evening.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 340 AM Fri . VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some scattered showers possible after Monday morning, and again Tuesday.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 645 AM Fri . No changes to headlines . SCA very marginal nrn sounds and srn waters but seeing some gusts around 25 kts so will cont.

Prev disc . Little change in pattern with low pres to the NE and high pres to the W. This will keep winds gusty at times with dir NW today becoming more N tonight. Speeds will be mainly 15 to 25 kts with mdls showing peak in winds this morning and again later tonight. Based on current obs and fcst winds will drop Alligator River from SCA, otherwise cont SCA coastal waters and Sounds. Leaned a bit more toward NBM/Wavewatch for seas which initialized better. Seas of 4 to 7 ft central and N this morn will build to 6 to 9 ft tonight as NE swell increases. Over srn wtrs seas will be mainly 3 to 5 ft with some 6 footers developing toward Sat morning outer wtrs.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 340 AM Fri . Strong N winds will continue this weekend, as a large low pressure system retrogrades south off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Winds will be N 15-25 kts Saturday into Sunday morning with gusts close to Gale Force. Then, winds subside through the day Sunday, becoming SW on Monday and strengthening to 10-20 kts. Winds then become W 15-25 kts Monday night into Tuesday.

Seas will be elevated and dangerous this weekend peaking at 8-12 ft east and north of Cape Lookout, while remaining 3-6 ft across the southern waters. Seas begin to subside Sunday night, but will remain 5-7 ft through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 255 AM Fri . Combo of gusty NW winds and humidities 20 to 30 percent will lead to an increased fire danger threat today for most of the region. The greatest threat will be from late this morn thru the aftn.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 255 AM Fri . Coastal concerns will continue along the Outer Banks this weekend, as low pressure over the Atlantic retrogrades back towards the East Coast. Beaches will begin to see long period swell from the distant low arrive tonight, peaking Saturday and Saturday night. Confidence is increasing that the Outer Banks will see large powerful wave action resulting in a prolonged period of wave run up (double digit seas with periods 14-15 seconds), with the threats for very rough surf, coastal flooding, beach erosion and ocean overwash. Moderate to potentially significant impacts will be possible for ocean side locations of the Outer Banks. This could impact portions of Highway 12, especially at times of high tide.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . SGK AVIATION . RF/SGK MARINE . RF/SGK FIRE WEATHER . MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	18 mi	44 min	NW 18 G 22	57°F			1008.1 hPa
FRFN7	19 mi	182 min				3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	32 min			52°F	4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	28 mi	32 min			51°F	5 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	31 mi	50 min	WNW 18 G 23	57°F	54°F		1008.8 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC

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Last 24hr

NW18 G25

NW15 G20

NW15 G20

NW16 G22

NW19 G23

NW18 G23

NW17 G23

NW9 G14

NW7

NW6

W8

W8 G12

NW13 G17

NW13 G17

NW16 G20

NW16 G20

NW14 G18

NW15

NW14 G18

NW14

NW17 G21

NW20 G30

NW21

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1 day ago

N33

N30

N28

N25

N24

N21 G28

N21

N16

NW11 G15

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W9 G12

W8 G13

W11 G15

W13 G18

W10 G14

NW13 G18

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N19 G24

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N17

NE15

N14 G17

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NE18 G25

NE22

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NE26

NE28 G35

NE32

N29 G35

NE38

NE39 G51

NE35 G43

N30 G38

N26

N30 G38

N30 G39

N27 G33

N31 G39

N30 G37

N32

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	16 mi	68 min	NW 12 G 25	10.00 mi	Fair	64°F	26°F	24%	1009.5 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	20 mi	67 min	NW 13 G 21	10.00 mi	Fair	60°F	31°F	35%	1009.5 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	20 mi	67 min	WNW 9 G 17	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	27°F	30%	1008.8 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	24 mi	67 min	NW 11 G 21	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	32°F	37%	0 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)

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W14

NW19 G25

NW16 G26

NW20 G27

NW17 G23

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NW13

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W6

W6

W11

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W10

NW8

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NW13 G19

NW17

NW17 G27

NW12 G25

1 day ago

N18 G27

N20

N20 G27

N18

N14

N10

N7

NW7

W4

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N13 G22

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2 days ago

NE10

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NE13

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NE19 G25

N15 G25

NE23 G31

NE22 G30

N19 G27

N24 G32

N20 G33

N21 G31

N22 G29

N20 G29

N20 G25

N19 G28

N18 G25

N21

N20 G27

N17 G29

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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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