Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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Fxus62 kmhx 151039 afdmhx area forecast discussion national weather service newport morehead city nc 639 am edt Tue oct 15 2019 Synopsis High pressure will quickly pass through the area today. Low pressure will move up the east coast Wednesday, and push a cold front offshore Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build in late week and into next weekend. Near term today As of 640 am tue... Latest analysis shows 1022mb high pressure centered over the mid-atlantic region, with weak cold front now well off the coast. Front will continue to push offshore, while high pressure extends over the area from the north today. Patchy fog, locally dense, will persist through about sunrise, with vsbys gradually improving thereafter. Skies will be mostly sunny to start then will likely see some increase in mainly mid high clouds late espcly SRN tier in advance of the next system. After a cool start (inland temps currently in the upper 40s) temps will warm nicely reaching 75 to 80 again most spots with comfortable humidity. Short term tonight As of 225 am tue... High pressure will continue to shift off the east coast as robust upper level system approaches from the west and area of low pressure begins to develop across the se us. Isentropic lift increases across the area tonight with widespread precip developing late tonight and early wed. Main change to previous forecast was to delay the onset of precip a bit, based on guidance and given the dry air in place it will take a little while to saturate. Best precip chances will be towards sunrise Wed morning. Could see a non- diurnal temp curve overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s early, then rising a few degrees overnight into Wed morning as warm front lifts through. Long term Wednesday through Monday As of 330 am Tuesday... A low pressure area and attendant cold front will move across the area Wednesday with high pressure building in through the rest of the week bringing a cooler and drier airmass. The next system is expected to impact the area late in the weekend or early next week. Wednesday through Wednesday night... A robust upper level system approaches from the west while a low pressure deepens as it tracks across the carolina piedmont and offshore Wednesday. Weak instability will develop in the warm sector with strong shear and forcing present which could be sufficient for a few thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front, however poor lapse rates and marginal effective shear should limit the severe potential. We could see beneficial rainfall with models showing widespread QPF amounts around 3 4 to 1 inch. Temps remain seasonably mild with highs in the mid 70s. Strong caa develops behind the cold front late Wednesday and especially Wednesday night with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland to mid 50s coast. Thursday through Monday... Strong high pressure builds in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the coast. High pressure becomes centered over the area Saturday, then migrates offshore Sunday into Monday with the next frontal system approaching the area. There remains some timing differences among guidance but could see precip chances increases late Sunday, but more likely Sunday night into Monday as SW flow aloft brings increasing gulf moisture and a warm front lifts across the area. Temps moderate to near normal over

the weekend and a few degrees above normal Monday. Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday Short term through tonight ... as of 640 am tue... Vsbys and CIGS improving early this morning, though could still see ifr or lower conditions through about 12z. PredVFR conditions expected after areas of fog and stratus lift later this morning, between 11-13z. The next system will approach tonight, with increasing clouds and precip chances. Sub-vfr conditions may develop late tonight and early wed morning. Long term Wednesday through Saturday ... as of 4 am Tuesday... A strengthening low pressure area will lift across the area into Wednesday with widespread sub-vfr conditions in showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. A strong cold front will push through Wednesday afternoon with predVFR conditions returning and continuing through the end of the week as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Strong south to southwest winds expected ahead of the front and could see gusts to around 25 kt at the terminals Wednesday with a period of gusty northwest winds late Wednesday behind the front. High pressure builds into the area Thursday through Saturday with predVFR conditions expected. Marine Short term through tonight ... as of 640 am tue... Latest obs show winds generally N NE 5-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Weak boundary will continue to push offshore early this morning, as high pressure builds in to the north. Areas of fog near the albemarle sound and northern waters should dissipate in the next hour or two. N NE winds 5-15 kt this morning becoming E NE this afternoon as high pressure continues to shift eastward. The next system will approach the waters tonight, with associated warm front lifting through late tonight into Wed morning. E flow around 10 kt early, becoming SE s 10-20 kt by early Wed morning. Seas 2-3 ft today, building to 2-4 ft overnight. Long term Wednesday through Saturday ... as of 4 am Tuesday... SCA conditions expected to return Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the area. A warm front will lift across the waters early Wednesday ahead of the low with winds becoming south to southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts and seas building to 5-9 ft. The front pushes through Wednesday afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25 kt late Wednesday and Wednesday night, then gradually diminishes through the day Thursday. Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside through the end of the work week as high pressure settles over the area. Mhx watches warnings advisories Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205. Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 10 am edt Thursday for amz131-135-156-158-230-231. Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 am edt Friday for amz150-152-154. Synopsis... Mhx near term... Cqd short term... Cqd long term... Sk aviation... Sk cqd marine... Sk cqd

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	18 mi	74 min	W 2.9 G 4.1	65°F			1018.6 hPa (+0.4)
FRFN7	19 mi	194 min				2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	74 min			72°F	2 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	28 mi	44 min			71°F	3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	31 mi	80 min	NNE 2.9 G 2.9	66°F	73°F		1018.6 hPa
44086	33 mi	49 min			71°F	3 ft
44095	43 mi	58 min			72°F	2 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	16 mi	80 min	WNW 3	1.75 mi	Fog/Mist	53°F	52°F	96%	1019 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	20 mi	1.7 hrs	N 0	0.25 mi	Fog	56°F	55°F	99%	1019 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	20 mi	79 min	N 0	1.50 mi	Fog/Mist	61°F	61°F	100%	1018.6 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	24 mi	79 min	N 0	4.00 mi	Fog/Mist	54°F	53°F	100%	1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.