Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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Fxus62 kmhx 231945 afdmhx area forecast discussion national weather service newport morehead city nc 345 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019 Synopsis A cold front will approach the area later today and tonight and slowly cross the region Saturday. The front will stall well offshore Sunday with low pressure moving along it Monday. Another cold front will approach the area mid to late week. Near term through tonight As of 245 pm Friday... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front draped across central virginia early this afternoon in association with an unseasonably strong upper level stretching from quebec into the great lakes as seen in WV imagery. Some weak lobes of mid-level vorticity are advecting across the region and, coupled with the front, will provide some enhanced ascent to set the stage for increasing showers and thunderstorms later this evening. Immediate next few hours are expected to be mainly dry with a few afternoon showers and storms possibly sneaking into the coastal plain. Main event is later tonight as the front sinks south and storm coverage increases in an axis of 30-35 knot 0-6 km bulk shear across the nc va border and mlcapes approaching 2500 j kg. All the hi-res guidance indicates a squall line developing and stalling along the va border before progressing south after sunset as the convective system becomes gradually cold-pool dominant. Main concern is minor urban flooding with pwats of 2-2.25 inches, but current thinking is line will be moving fast enough to preclude more widespread flash flooding. A risk for gusty to severe winds with the squall line is possible mainly for our northern tier of counties. Overall precipitation chances drop to the south with much weaker shear and lack of daytime heating. Have categorical pops northern tier to high chance along the crystal coast. Highs remainder of today top out in the low 90s with cloud cover keeping lows in the mid 70s along the coast, to low 70s inland with the aid of cooling rainfall. Short term Saturday As of 300 pm Friday... Front continues to push south towards the coast on Saturday with plenty of cloud cover lingering in its wake. Behind the front, high pressure to the north will shift east and set up a weak wedge cold-air dam to our west, aiding in cooler and more stable air. A thin axis of instability is possible along the coast as hinted by hi-res guidance, but given the expected considerable cloud cover I have my doubts if there will be enough instability to sustain as aggressive of coverage as advertised. If more sustained activity is realized storm motions will be slow in an axis of 2-2.25 inch pwats suggesting a localized flooding threat, especially considering the recent substantial rainfall these areas have received. Due to uncertainty in storm evolution, nudged pops down from categorical to likely. With the wedge and plenty of cloud cover lows tomorrow will be considerably cooler with low to mid 80s along the coast, upper 70s in the northern coastal plain. Long term Saturday night through Friday As of 345 pm fri... Periods of unsettled weather continues Sunday and possibly into Monday. Another cold front will approach the area from the west by midweek. Saturday night... Cold front will push offshore by Sat night. As the front pushes south, a weak shallow high pressure wedge builds in to the carolinas. Fairly widespread showers will continue through the evening, as decent overrunning regime sets up with h85 mb flow still srly. Pw values are above 2.00" and deep warm cloud layer with the best convergence near the low mid level frontal across SRN half of the fa. Sunday through Monday... Continued following the more consistent ecmwf, as has support from the UKMET cmc with a more developed, albeit further offshore, tropical system. The GFS appears to remain an outlier with a near-coast and much weaker tropical or

subtropical system. With expected further offshore track, impacts would be relegated to the waters in the form of high surf and strong rip currents. Gusty winds will be felt along the coast due to high pres ridging into the carolinas and low pres gathering to the south. More unsettled weather possible for Sunday, though coverage and intensity does not appear too impressive, so rain amounts do not look too high, even along coastal areas. Will retain likely pops for coastal zones with chc pops interior as ocnl showers will be a threat at any time during the day. The low will pass well east of the nc coast on Monday, keeping only chc showers in the fcst, and breezy conditions on the coast due to gradient between high pres ridging in from the west and the low well offshore. Tuesday through Thursday... High pressure should build back in tue with more drier conditions, then an approaching cold front by midweek resulting in sct showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs to climb back towards climo, in the mid upr 80s. Lows continue in the 60s interior to low 70s coast. Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday Short term through Saturday 18z ... as of 140 pm Friday... High res models show scattered convection starting after 21z with more organized storms moving in overnight with the front, especially in the northern sites. Models are becoming more confident with ceilings dropping behind the front to MVFR after midnight and then to ifr after 09z for all sites. MVFR conditions should return after 15z, but more widespread shra is expected towards the end of the TAF period. Long term Saturday through Tuesday ... as of 345 pm fri... The frontal boundary will remain close to the nc coast and continue bring unsettled weather Sat night and into sun, with ocnl subVFR expected. Some drier air moves in by the beginning of the week leading to improved flying conditions. Marine Short term tonight and Saturday ... as of 300 pm Friday... Seas this hour 2 to 3 feet except for more persistent 4 foot seas in the outer waters with SW winds at around 10 to 20 knots. A cold front will approach the northern waters tonight with SW winds at around 15-20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots, although nothing widespread enough to warrant sca. Winds gradually shift to the N and then NE through Saturday as the front slowly pushes offshore. A weak surge of N nne winds mainly for the northern waters and sounds at around 15 knots is expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Long term Saturday night through Tuesday ... as of 345 pm fri... A cold front will be south of the waters by sat night. Winds increase out of the NE on Sunday and should reach SCA conditions with sustained 20-25 kt NE winds due to high pres from the west and developing low pres well offshore. The gusty NE winds continue on Monday as potential tropical or subtropical storm moves NE well off of the nc coast. Seas and swell will build to greater than 6 ft by Sunday and remain that way through Monday as the system tracks ne. Wwiv much too low with the waves so relied more on the ecm waves and nwps. Winds and seas start to subside later Monday through Tuesday as the system moves well away from the waters. Mhx watches warnings advisories Nc... None. Marine... None. Synopsis... Mhx near term... Ms short term... Ms long term... Tl aviation... Tl ml marine... Tl ms

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	18 mi	53 min	SW 8 G 8.9	87°F	60°F		1013.9 hPa (-1.3)
FRFN7	19 mi	113 min				2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	53 min			77°F	1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	28 mi	53 min			82°F	2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	31 mi	59 min	S 20 G 23	83°F	85°F		1014.8 hPa
44086	33 mi	58 min			71°F	3 ft
44095	43 mi	37 min			77°F	3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	16 mi	3 hrs	SSW 11	10.00 mi	Fair	89°F	75°F	65%	1015 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	20 mi	79 min	SSW 13 G 18	10.00 mi	Overcast	88°F	75°F	66%	1014.9 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	20 mi	74 min	SW 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	90°F	72°F	58%	1014.2 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	24 mi	79 min	SSW 9	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	89°F	76°F	68%	1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.