Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 081145 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move north through the area tonight into Monday. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area through late next week, with another system likely impacting the area late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. As of 645 AM Sun . Latest sfc analysis shows strong 1034mb high pressure centered over the NE US, extending southward into the Carolinas. Shortwave ridging will continue as surface high slowly pushes off the NE coast through the day. As the high moves eastward, a coastal trough will back toward the area through the day and will see increasing clouds with isolated to scattered showers moving onshore this afternoon and evening, mainly south of Highway 70. With CAA waning, temps will be a few degrees warmer than yday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 245 AM Sun . High pressure to the north will continue to move east tonight, as a weak coastal trough/warm front develops along the SE coast. The warm front will lift north through the area tonight into Mon. The front coupled, with deepening mid level trough, shortwave energy and deeper moisture will lead to widespread showers and possibly a few tstms along the coast overnight. Pwat values less than 0.5" Sun morning will increase to around 1.25" tonight. Mild overnight with clouds and precip, lows expected in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Will likely see a non- diurnal temp curve overnight for most locations, with temps increasing behind the front as S/SE flow develops.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 3 AM Sun . Periods of unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps as progressive/amplified weather pattern is expected.

Monday . Weak coastal trough/warm front will likely be impacted eastern portions of E NC for the start of Monday, before a drying trend commences by the second half of the day. Have hung onto likely pops for ern areas through around noon, before trending down through second half of the day. Highs will be warm with srly flow 10-15 mph, with readings climbing well above climo in the 70 degree range most locales.

Monday night through Tuesday . Period of dry weather and very warm temps expected Mon night and Tue. In fact could see some record highs threatened on Tue as highs flirt with the 80 degree mark, which makes sense given fcst low lvl thicknesses soaring to around 1380M.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . More widespread shower activity is expected again Tuesday night into early Wed. Best chances of rain will be interior areas, where fgen is maximized late night into early Wed. Further east, chances of rain are in question as forcing will be n and w of the coast, and have capped pops in the 30-40% range. The strong cold front will push through the area by Wed morning, with dry conditions returning for the afternoon hours. Temps will swing to the other side of climo, and only reach the 50s behind the front Wed afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air Wed night and Thursday with highs Thu only in the 40s. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning. GFS is a big outlier with weather on Thur, and have discounted this wet soln, as more consistent ECMWF has support from the UKMET and CMC. Have indicated only a 20 pop as some light showers may migrate in towards the coast, but generally expecting dry conditions.

Friday through Saturday . Rain chances inc Thur night and esp Fri through Sat as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur several areas of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. Have inc pops to 50-70% this time frame as looks quite unsettled through at least Sat. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of said low pressure areas, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm tracks are inland.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 645 AM Sun . VFR conditions currently across the terminals early this morning. VFR should prevail through early this afternoon, with ceilings lowering to MVFR late this afternoon and this evening ahead of a strengthening warm front. Increasing shower chances this afternoon, becoming widespread tonight into Monday morning. Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely tonight into Mon morning, with potential for periods of IFR. LAMP and HREF in good agreement showing high potential for IFR ceilings after 06z tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Unsettled weather is expected Tue night through Wednesday morning with gusty winds, scattered showers and periods of sub- VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns second half of Wed through Thu.

MARINE. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 645 AM Sun . Latest obs show gusty NE winds 15-25 kt (strongest south of Lookout) with seas 4-6 ft. SCAs continue for the coastal waters. Strong high pressure to the north will gradually slide eastward today and tonight, as warm front to the south strengthens and lifts north through the waters tonight into Monday morning. Winds will slowly diminish late this morning and afternoon, becoming NE/E 10-20 kt with seas subsiding below 6 ft. The window for seas below 6 ft will be small however, with SE winds increasing to 15-25 kt tonight allowing seas to build to 5-9 ft. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt in the Pamlico Sound late tonight and early Monday morning, but not confident enough at this time for SCA headline.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Still no changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of next week which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds Mon expected to be S 20-30 kts over the coastal waters, and may remain below SCA for the sounds and rivers if high res meso models are correct. Will have to monitor for potential inc in winds for sounds and rivers, but right now keeping winds sub SCA. Winds will shift N/NW 15-25 kt with higher gusts behind the front late Wed night and continue through Thu, with even the sounds likely to receive SCA winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CQD SHORT TERM . CQD LONG TERM . JME/TL AVIATION . CQD/TL MARINE . CQD/TL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	18 mi	59 min	ENE 18 G 22	49°F			1030.4 hPa (-0.0)
FRFN7	19 mi	179 min				4 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	59 min			53°F	4 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	28 mi	59 min			54°F	4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	31 mi	65 min	NE 17 G 22	50°F	51°F		1029.8 hPa
44086	33 mi	34 min			55°F	5 ft
44095	43 mi	43 min			54°F	5 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC

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8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

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3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

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1 AM

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Last 24hr

N26

N23

N22 G27

NE21

NE20

N18

N17 G23

N16 G21

N17 G21

N18 G22

NE19 G24

NE20

N18 G22

NE19

NE19

NE18

NE15

NE18 G22

NE18

NE19

NE16 G20

NE18

NE19

NE18 G22

1 day ago

SW7

SW8

SW6 G10

SW8

SW8

W6 G9

W5

SW4

W3

SW2

SW5

SW8

SW10

W8

SW9

W9 G12

W9

SW6 G9

W7

NW6 G9

NW10 G13

N14 G19

N24

NE25

2 days ago

NW14 G19

NW16 G21

NW16

NW18 G24

NW21 G26

W11 G14

NW13 G16

NW15

W11 G15

W5

W7

W8

W5

SW7

W5

SW5

SW8

SW7

SW6

SW8

SW7

SW8

SW8

SW9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	16 mi	65 min	N 8	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	33°F	83%	1031.3 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	20 mi	64 min	ENE 13	10.00 mi	Fair	47°F	37°F	70%	1030.8 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	20 mi	64 min	no data	10.00 mi	Fair	47°F	36°F	66%	1030.5 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	24 mi	84 min	NE 5	10.00 mi	Fair	43°F	37°F	79%	1031.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)

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8 PM

9 PM

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12 AM

1 AM

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Last 24hr

N12

N13

N17 G26

NE14

N14 G19

N11

NE15

N13

NE12

NE12

N7

N10

N8

N11

N9

N11

N8

N10

N8

N8

N8

N8

N7

N8

1 day ago

Calm

SW6

S8

SW9

SW9

SW8

SW9

W5

SW5

Calm

Calm

S3

SW5

SW5

SW7

SW7

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SW6

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N10

N10

2 days ago

W8

W14

NW17 G26

W15

W16 G21

W15

W13

NW11 G19

W12

W6

SW3

W4

SW4

SW5

SW5

SW5

SW5

SW3

Calm

SW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

SW3

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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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