Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 121810 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 210 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will gradually dissipate across the area today. Another weak front expected to approach the area early next week, followed by Bermuda high pressure dominating and inland lee trough over the piedmont.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1020 AM Sun . No major changes to the forecast. The frontal boundary continues to linger just offshore helping to fire plenty of convective activity over the Gulf Stream. Short range guidance continues to suggest at least isolated activity developing along a developing sea breeze this afternoon in an environment characterized by effective shear of 25-30 kt and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 2500-3000 J/kg surface based. A strong storm or two is certainly possible today with strong downbursts being the main threat.

Pre Dis . The stationary boundary is located over the coastal plains and move towards the coast, then gradually dissipate today. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the sea breeze as CAPE value reaching to 2500 to 3000 J/kg, while shear ranging 25-30 knots. Expect temperatures to reach into the low to mid 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the Outer Banks.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. As of 300 AM Sun . The showers and thunderstorms that developed during afternoon will gradually diminish or shift offshore. Expect mostly dry weather, expect along the immediate coast line. A light SW flow will continue to bring warm and muggy night. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 300 AM Sun .

Monday . A well defined short wave can be seen on the water vapor loop over Northeast Iowa this morning. This feature will move into an unstable environment Monday afternoon with decent 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of around 20 kts. MUCAPES on the GFS seem too low (1200 j/kg) and the NAM may be a tad too high (3000 j/kg), with the EURO right in the middle or around 2000. Right now we are in general thunder for Monday but the upper level support of the short wave may be enough to compensate for average shear values. We will have to carefully watch this period for severe weather potential with both large hail and damaging winds possible due to high instability and dry air in the mid levels. Highs Monday will again be well into the 90s inland.

Tuesday through Friday . Upper level heights rise to 594 DM by the end of the week which will continue our summerlike pattern through the end of the week. Daily convection is possible along the sea breeze, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. By later in the week while something isolated can't be ruled out, the overall chances will dip a bit with building subsidence from our upper level ridge.

Saturday . Pretty far out to get too cute but signs point toward a weakness in the upper level heights with the ridge retreating west a bit. This may allow for a better chance for thunderstorms but with it being 7 days out, capped chances at 30%. Remaining hot with highs in the 90s inland.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Monday/ . As of 2 PM Sunday . VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Cu field this afternoon providing sct skies. EWN and OAJ have best chance of experiencing late afternoon tstorms. Winds out of the SW 7kts or less with a chance of gusts associated with outflows from any tstorms that do develop. Slight chance of fog tomorrow for OAJ and EWN, but that will be dependent on rainfall late this afternoon/early evening so BR/FG was omitted from this cycle. Tomorrow SCT to BKN skies between 7k and 8k ft working in from NW moving SE. Winds will be S to SW 7kts or less except for EWN which shows 8kt winds gusting up to around 15kts.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 2 PM Sun . Mainly VFR through the period. Monday a shortwave enters the region bringing an increased chance of showers and tstorms developing after 18Z. Potential for brief MVFR restrictions especially during the afternoon in periods of showers or thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible in the footprint of afternoon/evening rainfall.

MARINE. Short Term /Sunday/ . As of 700 AM Sun . The latest buoy observations are showing SW winds 5-10 knots and seas 3 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 4-5 ft south. SW winds 5-10 knots in the morning, then becoming 10-15 knots with a few gusts close to 20 knots later in the day and continuing through the overnight hours. Seas 3-5 ft will continue through today and this evening, then becoming 4-6 ft with the highest over the central waters late tonight as swell energy moves up towards the Carolinas. Therefore, Small Craft Advisory will become in effect for late tonight for the central waters.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/ . As of 430 AM Sun . 6 foot seas will linger early in the long term period with improving marine conditions through mid week.

6 footers linger Monday especially central waters with southwest winds 10 to 20 kts. Sea subside to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday, as winds diminish to under 10 kts. Wind directions will be a bit tricky over the waters Tuesday with a boundary cutting through the area. Winds over the northern waters will be more northerly, while a southwest flow will continue south of Cape Hatteras. Winds back toward the southeast through the end of the period and remain light, or generally 5 to 15 kts with seas 2 to 3 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . BM/MS SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . EH AVIATION . EH/BM/CEB MARINE . EH/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	18 mi	59 min	S 8.9 G 12	87°F
FRFN7	19 mi	179 min				3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC	20 mi	33 min			82°F	3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	28 mi	33 min			82°F	4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	31 mi	59 min	S 15 G 18	84°F	85°F
44086	33 mi	46 min			81°F	4 ft
44095	43 mi	33 min			80°F	3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC

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SW10 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	16 mi	65 min	SW 11	10.00 mi	Fair	92°F	70°F	49%	1009.1 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	20 mi	84 min	SSW 13	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	86°F	77°F	76%	1009.5 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	20 mi	64 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Fair	89°F	72°F	57%	1009.1 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	24 mi	84 min	SSW 8	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	90°F	71°F	54%	1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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