Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbia town, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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Fxus62 kmhx 190154 afdmhx area forecast discussion national weather service newport morehead city nc 954 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019 Synopsis The area will remain between subtropical high pressure offshore and a weak troughing inland through early next week. A front will approach and stall near the area by the middle of next week. Near term until 6 am Friday morning As of 950 pm thurs... A few complexes of strong thunderstorms continue to move east and into the coastal plain at this hour. Most high res models keep convection ongoing for the next few hours, and then dissipate precip quickly around midnight. Then, expect just some offshore thunderstorms, though couldn't rule out a shower along the immediate coast. Very warm temps will continue overnight with lows expected in the upper 70s to low 80s. Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday As of 330 pm thurs... More of the same pattern with sfc high pressure well offshore and inland trough, while heights aloft gradually build back in. The main story for tomorrow will be the heat and humidity... Will issue a heat advisory for the area, with heat indices reaching 105 to 110 degrees. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly along the sea breeze as the atmosphere becomes quite unstable. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90's along the beaches. Long term Friday night through Thursday As of 305 pm Thursday... The long term period will be characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the northern CONUS with the southern u.S. Stuck under a broad ridge through the end of the week. By the beginning of next week, a deepening low over the gulf of alaska will help promote a more amplified pattern across the CONUS with strong ridging over the west and a deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts to eastern nc weather is a typical summer surface pattern into early next week with high pressure over the western atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the more pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the region and increase precip coverage. Saturday and Sunday... Continued hot and very humid for the weekend with similar temperatures both days. Thicknesses increase with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ c across eastern nc. As the upper level trough begins to amplify to the west. Heights will fall some Sunday, but temperatures will be very similar. Expect highs over the weekend to average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points remain high and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered convection is possible along the sea breeze each day but with the ridge firmly in control coverage will be limited. Capping pops at 30% for the period. Monday thru wed... A break in the heat is finally in sight as the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the region and helping to usher a front south across the mid- atlantic and into the carolinas by mid-week. While there are still model differences regarding timing and progression of the front Tuesday into Wednesday, guidance agreement has increased and have increased pops to likely for Tuesday into Tuesday night, with likelies continuing along the coast for Wednesday. The front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a pronounced mid-level shortwave. It should be noted the front is expected to stall with plenty of moisture (pwats of 2+ inches) and multiple subtle lobes of mid-level vorticity riding along

the boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are possible, although the question of where the front stalls remains unanswered. Behind the front highs will struggle to crack 90, and fall even further by the middle of the week. Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday Short term through tomorrow evening ... as of 730 pm thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across the coastal plain, but then the area will be mostly dry overnight. Scattered thunderstorms will again develop by tomorrow afternoon, with brief periods of sub-vfr conditions possible. Long term Friday night through Tuesday ... as of 250 pm Thursday... Typical summertime pattern this period with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland, with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. As ridge shifts farther offshore on Monday may see an uptick in convection. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday, helping to focus showers thunderstorms along it as it crosses into eastern nc through Tuesday. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible early each morning, especially any areas that receive rain. Marine Short term through tonight ... as of 330 pm thu... The latest buoy obs are showing SW winds 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and seas are 2-3 north of oregon inlet and 4-5 ft south. Expect southwesterly winds to continue with wind gusts reaching up to 30 kt late this evening. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters and sounds south of oregon inlet, with the potential for occasional winds to 25 kt across the croatan and roanoke sounds through late afternoon, but the duration too short to justify inclusion in the sca. The SW gusty winds will gradually diminish overnight, but SW 15-20 knot will continue through Friday. Seas will gradually build to 4 to 6 ft tonight, and subside Friday morning to 3-5 ft. Long term Friday night through Tuesday ... as of 255 pm Thursday... The pressure gradient will relax some Friday night through Sunday with winds dropping to 10 to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday into Monday night, increasing the pressure gradient across the waters with SW winds increase again to 15 to 25 kt Monday with seas 4-6 ft, highest for the central coastal waters. The front shifts closer to eastern nc waters on Tuesday, shifting the strongest gradient farther offshore, allowing SW winds to diminish 10-20 kt and seas mostly 3-4 ft. Mhx watches warnings advisories Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Friday for ncz029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for amz135. Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Friday for amz152-154. Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz156-158. Synopsis... Mhx near term... Sgk short term... Bm long term... Dag ms aviation... Dag sgk marine... Dag bm

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370	18 mi	44 min	SW 15 G 20	84°F	61°F		1014.3 hPa
FRFN7	19 mi	152 min				1 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430)	28 mi	32 min			77°F	3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	31 mi	50 min	SSW 20 G 25	84°F	86°F		1015 hPa
44086	33 mi	37 min			76°F	4 ft
44095	43 mi	46 min			82°F	4 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC

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SW13 G19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC	16 mi	38 min	WSW 10	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	81°F	75°F	82%	1014.6 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC	20 mi	52 min	WSW 11	10.00 mi	Fair	82°F	77°F	86%	1015.2 hPa
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC	20 mi	52 min	SW 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	82°F	75°F	81%	1014.6 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC	24 mi	52 min	no data	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	80°F	78°F	94%	1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)

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S8 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.