Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southern Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:14 PM EDT (20:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 10:49AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ150 S Of Currituck Beach Light To Oregon Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm- 259 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 5 seconds in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southern Shores, NC
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location: 36.1, -75.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 212005
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
405 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will persist across the area through
Thursday. A cold front moves across the area Thursday night,
then stalls along the virginia-north carolina border Friday
before pushing south into the carolinas Saturday. High pressure
builds into the area for the later half of the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 350 pm edt Wednesday...

a weak shortwave aloft driving a complex of showers and storms
across the tidewater, northeastern nc, and the va eastern shore
will move offshore late this afternoon. In its wake, surface
heating destabilization is occurring but coverage of additional
showers in storms is in question with some subsidence behind the
departing shortwave trough. SPC has the area north of the va nc
border in a marginal risk, agitated cumulus clouds are present
over the higher terrain to our west and a weak surface trough
remains over the area so will keep the chance for showers and
storms in the forecast for this evening with the highest chance
near and north of i-64 and across the western portion of the
area where surface heating has been least impeded by clouds
today. Strong straight line winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning remain the primary hazards from storms this evening.

Any remaining convection will wane late this evening, leaving
partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions for the overnight
period. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight and early
Thursday morning, especially if we can manage some additional
rain storms this evening over the piedmont. Overnight lows range
from the low to mid 70s with some upper 70s S and near the
coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
As of 350 pm edt Wednesday...

guidance has trended lower regarding shower and storm coverage
for Thursday but the weak surface trough will remain present
over the area will maintain chance pops for the afternoon with
the relative greatest chance west of the bay. A cold front will
slowly approach from the north but make only modest progress
toward the area Thursday. Temperatures will inch upward on
with low to mid 90s expected away from the immediate coast
where some upper 80s are possible. Dew points will remain in the
low and mid 70s, resulting in afternoon heat indices ranging
from the upper 90s to around 102 degrees Thursday afternoon.

Overnight conditions will be muggy and warm with mostly mid 70s
across the region.

The slow-moving cold front approaches the region on Friday,
bringing thicker clouds an increased chance for showers and
storms along with the threat for heavy rain as precipitable
water values rise to ~2 inches ahead of the boundary. High
temperatures will range from the low 80s N into the upper 80s s.

The front will likely stall near or over southern portions of
the area Friday night with continued chances for heavy rain and
storms as weak waves of low pressure traverse the front. Global
guidance differs with how quickly the front moves south on
Saturday so will maintain the highest pops across the southern
third of the region. Much cooler on Saturday with upper 70s and
low 80s and decreasing humidity from north to south.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 4 pm edt Wednesday...

cold front will be south of the area Saturday night, however
some showers may linger behind the front (mainly along and south
of the nc state line). High pressure will build in from the n
behind the front bring cooler air to the area. Temperatures
Sunday morning will be in the upper 50s in the va piedmont and
low to mid 60s along and east of i-95. High temperatures will
only manage to reach the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the
coast with the ene flow. Pops will remain in for Sunday (20-30%)
for showers moving onshore from the atlantic ocean.

Models are indicating a low (possibly tropical) forming off the
outer banks early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a weak
sfc low pressure system moving NE out into the atlantic. Pops
were kept in with the highest towards the coast through
Wednesday as the low passes by. Temperatures will remain on the
mild side as the ene-ne flow continues. Highs will be in the low
to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s inland to low 70s at the
coast.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
As of 200 pm edt Wednesday...

MVFR conditions are around early this afternoon and
will lift toVFR later this afternoon and remainVFR throughout
the 18z TAF period. A shortwave is moving across SE va and NE nc
producing bkn CIGS (020-035 ft) with a few showers (some heavy
rain at times). The shortwave will move off our coast this
afternoon, leaving only few to sct CIGS around 050 ft. Isolated
shower tstms may develop once again this evening but confidence
is low whether they will move over TAF sites.

Drier air will move into the area tonight and into the first
half of Thursday with mainly sct-few high clouds. Winds will
remain around 10 kt (10-15 g 20 kt for kphf and korf) out of the
sw this afternoon, then decrease to 5-8 kt for tonight and
Thursday.

Outlook...

a cold front slowly moves across the local area thurs night
then stalls across nc fri. Expect sct to numerous shras and
tstms are anticipated W (and lingering behind into sat) that
cold frontal passage.

Marine
As of 350 pm edt Wednesday...

small craft advisories in effect for the coastal waters in addition
to chesapeake bay and the currituck sound into Thursday morning.

S SW winds have slowly been picking up throughout the afternoon
gusting to around 20 kts in some locations. Waves have been 1-2 ft
and seas 2-3 ft. Expect waves to build to 2-3 ft and seas 4-5 feet
by late in the day. As the pressure gradient relaxes Thursday
morning winds will decrease below SCA criteria. A cold front
approaches the area on Thursday but latest model guidance continues
to slow the progression of this front through our area, now appears
to be in the late Friday to early Saturday timeframe. Once the front
finally crosses the area the winds will turn to the N nw.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for anz630>632-
634-650-652-654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for anz633.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Rhr
short term... Rhr
long term... Cp
aviation... Cp
marine... Cmf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 6 mi63 min SW 24 G 40 71°F 69°F1015.9 hPa
FRFN7 6 mi135 min 1 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 7 mi45 min 75°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 13 mi45 min 82°F3 ft
44086 17 mi50 min 81°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 23 mi63 min S 20 G 27 1016.4 hPa
44095 31 mi59 min 80°F3 ft

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kill Devil Hills, First Flight Airport, NC6 mi35 minN 010.00 miLight Rain77°F69°F78%1015.6 hPa
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC12 mi20 minSW 20 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy85°F75°F74%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFFA

Wind History from FFA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW5W3SW6W7SW5SW4CalmCalmSW3SW4SW6
G14
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S5Calm
1 day agoS5CalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--W3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmS5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina
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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:47 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.92.31.610.70.711.62.433.53.63.42.92.21.61.10.911.422.63

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:51 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.92.31.610.70.611.62.333.53.63.42.92.21.61.10.911.41.92.63

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.