Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 12:38 AM   Moonset 9:57 AM

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FXUS64 KOHX 291157 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 657 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High clouds are filtering into the Middle Tennessee tonight with temperatures in 60s currently. Those clouds will thicken as the day goes on as our next rain maker approaches. Showers will be possible in the northwest as soon as this afternoon but the higher rain chances will likely hold off until after 00z for the majority of the CWA as the shortwave trough approaches. The thinking with this system remains unchanged. There will be some embedded storms but lapse rates look weak and soundings look saturated. We are not expecting strong storms but rain rates could be efficient at times. The deterministic HRRR has some swaths of 2"+ by the time the showers and storms exit the area on Tuesday. Median values of the HRRR are between 0.75-1.25". Showers and storms will be slow to completely clear the area on Tuesday and shower/storm chances will drag into Tuesday afternoon on the plateau.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Behind Monday and Tuesday's rain temperatures will not cool down.
In fact, upper level ridging will quickly build into the area on Wednesday with highs climbing into the mid 80s for areas west of the plateau. That warming trend will continue on Thursday as southerly flow ramps up ahead of our next rain chance. A few locations will reach into the upper 80s Thursday afternoon.
Showers and storms move into Middle Tennessee as early as Thursday night ahead of a shortwave in the southwesterly upper level flow. Models begin to diverge once the shortwave moves east of the area on Friday. It looks like there could be some rain chances this weekend but we'll have to wait to sort out the details.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Monday afternoon. Showers and possibly some storms will begin to impact the CKV/BNA/MQY from west to east late Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
Visibilities could drop to MVFR at times during heavy rain. Cigs will deteriorate to MVFR after 00z at CKV and after 03z and BNA/MQY. CSV and SRB should remain VFR through the taf period.
Winds will continue to be southerly for the forecast generally between 5-10 kts. Gusts around 20 kts are expected during the daylight hours on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 83 64 81 59 / 40 100 40 0 Clarksville 78 61 80 58 / 70 90 20 0 Crossville 78 59 71 53 / 10 100 70 10 Columbia 82 62 80 56 / 30 100 40 0 Cookeville 80 61 73 56 / 10 100 70 10 Jamestown 79 59 71 53 / 10 100 80 10 Lawrenceburg 81 62 79 56 / 30 100 50 0 Murfreesboro 83 62 79 56 / 30 100 50 0 Waverly 80 61 80 58 / 70 90 20 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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