Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 11:42 PM   Moonset 8:01 AM

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FXUS64 KOHX 270523 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Not a ton to talk about at update time this evening, but there's a few mentionables. Winds continue to be breezy. Occasional gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible through the night and well into tomorrow as the pressure gradient has tightened across the area.
With the clouds that are present, the winds will help temperatures remain warm overnight. So warm, in fact, that the warmest minimum temperature record might be in jeopardy tomorrow morning.
Currently, the record is 66 set in 1989 and we have 67 in the forecast at BNA. I would also be remiss if I didn't mention the potential for some sprinkles overnight and into the mid-morning hours tomorrow. I don't think it's going to be enough to register in anyone's CoCoRaHS rain gauge, but if you have morning plans, keep this in mind.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Most of the rain has cleared the area late this morning with just a small band of showers across the Upper Cumberland. Satellite imagery does show some breaks in the clouds which should make for a nice rest of the day as temperatures warm into the upper 70's or low 80's. Overall, a quiet weekend still looks to be in store despite the active pattern setting up to our west. This is thanks to upper-level ridging building overhead, keeping the area dry and warm. High temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid-80's each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. Winds will be gusty, especially on Saturday, thanks to a decent pressure gradient between the trough to our west and the ridging to our east. Winds should stay below advisory criteria though with gusts of 20-30 mph with perhaps occasional gusts near 35 mph.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The upper-level ridge shifts farther east to start the new week, allowing for a weak shortwave and front to track through the area. This will bring rain and some thunderstorms into the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Severe potential still looks low with marginal CAPE, poor lapse rates, and little wind shear.

The remainder of the week looks to be unsettled as a large upper- level low moves across the northern Great Plains and into the Great Lakes area. This feature should push a cold front through the area late in the week. Lots of uncertainty remains regarding this though, especially on timing. But rain and thunderstorm chances have been maintained Wednesday through Friday. Mid-80 temperatures through the week should cool slightly late in the week behind the cold front.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Showers in western TN will diminish as they push east and should not be an issue but a few sprinkles through 15z can't be ruled out. Winds overnight will be out of the south up to 15 knots picking up after 12z and becoming gusty with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will start to diminish after 00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 84 65 84 66 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 84 65 83 66 / 10 0 0 20 Crossville 74 58 77 58 / 10 10 0 0 Columbia 83 64 82 64 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 77 62 79 62 / 10 10 0 0 Jamestown 76 60 79 60 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 81 64 82 64 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 84 65 84 64 / 10 10 0 0 Waverly 84 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 10

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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