Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camden, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through Tuesday with clear/sunny to mostly sunny conditions, as Arctic high pressure extends to the SE.

Latest analysis continues to show cold 1038+mb high pressure over the Canadian Prairies, ridging E-SE across the northern plains and upper midwest. Meanwhile, strong ~970mb low pressure continues to slide across Atlantic Canada.

Tight pressure gradient in between Arctic high over central Canada and Low pressure over northern Maine will allow cold air advection to continue on breezy W-NW winds gusting up to 20-25 mph. Wind gusts gradually drop off late this afternoon and this evening as the gradient slowly relaxes.

Mainly clear to start tonight, with some increasing thin high clouds late. Overnight lows will reach down to the mid 20s for the piedmont and Eastern Shore with most of the area in the upper 20s.

Tuesday...
High pressure slowly builds to the NW on Tuesday with another dry day under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s on the Eastern Shore, the upper 40s in the Northern Neck and piedmont, the mid 40s for the rest of the VA area, to the upper 40s for NE NC. The Eastern Shore will stay cooler than the rest of the CWA with ongoing CAA on gusty NW winds. Overnight lows on Tuesday will fall into the lower 20s and upper 20s to lower 30s in SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Forecast confidence continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday.

Synopsis...
Cold weather remains persistent through the middle of the week as Arctic high pressure slides SE out of Canada and builds across north- central Plains. High pressure then builds south and east across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, as low pressure develops across the Gulf Coast and lifts northeast off the Atlantic coast. A southern stream shortwave currently dropping across the western US this afternoon is expected to dive southeast across the four corners region tomorrow and tomorrow night before pushing across the mid-south on Wednesday.
This feature is forecast to then compel developing low pressure along the southeastern coast Wed morning, with that low then lifting north- northeast.

12z/17 operational models and their respective ensembles (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) continued a solution showing lesser phasing between the southern stream system and the trailing potent northern stream mid-level trough. This drives a general S-SE trend with southern stream system and subsequent developing low pressure, with lower snow accumulations over far northern portions of the area (essentially RIC northward). Overall, forecast confidence is steadily increasing for a significant winter storm across our region Wednesday into Thursday.

Ensemble probabilities have similarly settled over central and SE VA with 4+" probs (60-80+% from RIC southeast), with 6+" probs 50-70% from RIC Metro and 70-90% over Hampton Roads and southside into NE NC N of US-158. Notably 4 and 6" probs have lowered substantially (20-50% and 20-30%, respectively) above a FVX to RIC to SBY line.

Precipitation Timing and Impacts...

Precip spreads in from west to east through Wednesday morning, as strong WAA aloft slides across the region. Given the very cold air in place, this will set the stage for a broad swath of accumulating snows across the region. While the overall QPF has lowered across the northwestern half of the area, the initial slug of overrunning moisture (290-300 k SFCs) across the northern half of the area could well provide a strong, quick burst of snow over the NW-third of the area Wed morning into Wed afternoon, which could quick make for treacherous traveling conditions Wed morning into the afternoon across the RIC metro.
Given expected higher SLRs on the preferred EPS/GEPS blend, the higher SLR will help "compensate" for the lower QPF to a degree for the actual snowfall forecast.

Farther south, most of the QPF/winter wx is expected to come from 18z Wednesday through Thursday morning. The maxima for snow at this time is expected to occur along a developing deformation axis and colocated with f-gen forcing driving moisture into the DGZ, impacting (primarily) much of the Hampton Roads area and the eastern shore.

Snow Totals...
Given subsidence and rapid drying aloft expected from SW to NE late Wed into Thursday, expect a rather sharp gradient to snow totals, along with a rather abrupt end to snow Wed night and early Thursday afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch has been raised for Wednesday into Thursday for our entire area. Snowfall accumulations are on the order of 3-6" across MD and the VA northern neck, with 4-8" across the RIC metro into south central VA. Higher totals at this time appear to occur along that pivoting deformation band on the back side of the departing low, with 5-10" of snow forecast. Given the colder, general SE trend, ice accumulations across our area figure to be quite low.
That said, the 12z/17 NAM still has a decent corridor of mixed precip across the far southern portions of our area across interior NE NC. We have maintained some ice accumulation in these areas but kept totals aob 0.10".

Thursday/Thursday night...
Shear axis associated with the northern stream shortwave crosses the region on Thursday, and will quite possible set off another round of light snow showers as it crosses, with additional minor snow accumulations possible. Cold high pressure builds across the region as precip exits offshore on Thursday evening. Lows Thursday night will be cold but specific values will depend heavily on where the axis of heaviest snow falls, with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows likely to be in the lower to middle teens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry Friday into the weekend.

Arctic air spills across the region early in the period, with temperatures to slowly modify through the weekend. Mostly sunny sky expected for Friday, but again specifics will depend on where and how much snow falls across the area. For now, will show temps in the upper 30s to around 40 W and NW with mid 30s for the remainder of the area. Cold Friday night with lows in the teens to low 20s. Warmer over the weekend, as high pressure moves offshore. Highs Saturday around 40 degrees with lows overnight in the low 20s. Highs Sunday rebound into the low/mid 40 with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1130 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/17 TAF period. High pressure builds into the area from central Canada and the upper midwest, as low pressure moves off into Atlantic Canada. W-NW winds continue to be gusty/breezy to ~15kt inland, and up to 20-25 kt at SBY, ORF, and PHF. Gusts slowly drop out from mid to late afternoon into tonight, as the pressure gradient relaxes.
A mainly clear sky is forecast, with SCT high clouds building in overnight toward sunrise Tuesday.

Outlook: High pressure will continue building in Tuesday and Tuesday night, maintaining dry/VFR conditions. Developing low pressure system is likely to bring wintry precip in forms of snow and/or wintry mix Wednesday into Thursday with degraded flight conditions likely Wednesday afternoon and night into early Thursday. Dry and VFR conditions return Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key messages:

- Winds gradually decrease today and tonight, and should fall below SCA criteria by midnight.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected late tonight-Tuesday evening

- Another more wintry system will bring solid SCA to gale conditions to the waters from Wednesday through Thursday night.

Conditions continue to gradually improve across the local water this afternoon as high pressure builds into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Still a bit breezy, though, with latest obs showing westerly winds generally around 15kt with gusts around 20kt. With the winds being westerly and coming off of the relatively warmer land where mixing is better, gusts near the shore in the bay and rivers are a bit more elevated at 20-25kt. SCAs for the bay and rivers will continue into this evening. They also will continue for the two northern coastal zones into this evening for 5ft+ seas and winds continuing to gust around 25kt. Have cancelled the coastal zones south of Parramore Island, though, since seas have dropped to around 3ft and the Currituck Sound since obs down there are sub- advisory level. Overnight, WNW winds will be 10-15kt for most areas, with 15-20kt in the coastal waters off the MD Eastern Shore.

Sub-advisory, but breezy, conditions continue tomorrow as high pressure slides in overhead and winds turn more to the NW. Waves will be 1-2ft and seas 2-4ft (highest north). Winds turn to the N/NNE late Tuesday night into early Wednesday and increase to 15- 20kt ahead of the next system set to impact the area. Low pressure is set to deepen as it travels up the coast Wednesday into Thursday, bringing elevated winds to the area. NE winds increase from S to N Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday night, winds look to be 25-30kt over the southern coastal waters and 20-25kt elsewhere. There is a still a chance that the NC waters will need a Gale warning for the winds ahead of the low Wednesday night, but local wind probs for 34kt gusts are ~30% for this time period. Winds turn to the NW behind the low Thurs morning at 20-25kt. The best shot at gale force gusts will then be Thurs night as strong high pressure builds in behind the low and tightens the pressure gradient. Local wind probs for 34kt gusts for Thurs night and highest in the upper bay (50-70%)
and the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border (70-90%). Elevated winds continue into Friday before diminishing to sub-advisory criteria on Friday night/Sat morning.

HYDROLOGY
As of 1130 AM EST Monday...

River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the James River at Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and the Richmond Locks, and also for the Appomattox River at Farmville, Mattoax, and Matoaca. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville and the Nottoway River near Rawlings/Stony Creek/Sebrell. These points will see minor to moderate flooding, which will likely continue for the next few days. See water.noaa.gov/wfo/akq for the latest site-specific information.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for MDZ021>025.
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652.