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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 1005 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A warm front will lift through the area tonight with southerly winds quickly increasing overnight, but conditions improving on Saturday. Unsettled pattern then continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 020246 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 946 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley through tonight pulling a warm front through the region. This will bring spotty light rain into the local area. Another chance for rain is expected later Saturday into Saturday night as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 945 PM EST Friday...

A warm front has lifted through roughly the southeastern third of the forecast, with its current location from roughly Emporia to Wakefield to Williamsburg and up the southern Eastern Shore.
South and southeast of the front, temperatures are quite mild and range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (mid to upper 60s southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina). North and northwest, temperatures are in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The front will likely be stubborn to move much further NW through the overnight hours (typical of this time of the year), with temperatures staying nearly steady or rising a degree or two through the night. Light rain lingers across the eastern half of the area, with some more steady rain over the Eastern Shore.
The light rain will push offshore later tonight into early Saturday morning.

In the immediate vicinity of the front, will have to watch closely for the potential for dense fog formation with many of the high- res models indicating this fog potential along the aforementioned front location. Patchy fog will be possible across the remainder of the forecast area, especially as we approach sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

A southern stream area of low pressure will track NE from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night bringing a better potential for a more substantial rain (0.25-0.5" possible) across the area later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Likely PoPs (60-70%) are forecast at this time. Low pressure will push out to sea Sunday followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday evening into Sunday night. Milder temperatures are expected both Saturday and Sunday, despite the rain (especially Saturday). Highs will range through the 60s both days. However, if enough clearing/drying can occur Sunday far SE VA/NE NC could rise into the lower 70s Sunday. Lows will range through the 50s to around 60F Saturday night, and through the 40s to around 50F Sunday night. A shortwave trough approaches from the W Monday. Moisture will be limited, but the trough is rather vigorous, so at least an increase in clouds are expected, with a limited chc of showers.
Highs will still be above normal Monday ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

The shortwave trough swings across the area Monday night with limited moisture. Dry weather is expected for Tuesday/Tuesday evening, as high pressure builds across the region. Another shortwave trough will swing across the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and could produce a few showers. Then, high pressure will build into and over the region for late Wednesday night through Thursday. Cooler than normal temps are expected for Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the trough.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

Deteriorating flight conditions are expected through the 00z/02 TAF period. A warm front, currently located just south of the area, will gradually lift to the northeast before likely stalling across the area Saturday morning. As a result, low level moisture increases tonight with dropping CIGs and chances for fog and drizzle/light rain. VFR conditions at all sites to start the period, but expect MVFR CIGs to develop over the next 1-2 hours at RIC/SBY, and eventually spreading to all sites. IFR CIGs then develop ~05-06z at SBY and spreads to the other sites through the early morning hours. Finally, MVFR to IFR VSBY restrictions will be possible, especially as we reach the ~11 to 12z timeframe (best potential for IFR at PHF, ORF, SBY). CIGs slowly lift later Saturday morning with generally MVFR CIGs by Saturday afternoon.

Outlook:Low pressure approaches from the SW later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night bringing light rain and degraded flight conditions with another round of IFR/MVFR conditions likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Some improvement is expected by Sunday afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sunday night through Wednesday, with upper level disturbances bringing some clouds and a slight chance of showers Monday afternoon and late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

MARINE
As of 250 PM EST Friday...

This afternoon, high pressure is centered well offshore with low pressure tracking slowly ENE from MO/IL into the Great Lakes region. Obs show southerly winds are generally 5-10 kt, with 10-15 kt over the central and northern coastal waters. Seas are 2-3 ft with waves 1 ft or less. Into this evening, winds are likely to briefly increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt N of Parramore Island. Given the short duration and seas expected to be just below 5 ft, will not issue any SCAs at this time.
S-SW winds then turn light for the day Saturday as a frontal boundary and weak low pressure lift N. This may briefly turn the winds onshore (E-SE direction) N of Cape Charles for a period late Sat/early Sun. Winds then turn back around to S-SW for most of Sunday. A cold front crosses the area Sunday evening with W-NW winds increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the coastal waters) Monday night behind the front. Overall, most areas should stay sub-SCA. Widespread SCA conditions are not forecast until next Wednesday-Thursday behind another (stronger) cold front, with NW winds potentially increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt.

As mentioned before, seas may briefly approach 5 ft late tonight. However, most areas are likely to remain 3-4 ft. Waves will remain 1- 2 ft. Seas and waves of 2-3 and 1-2 ft ft, respectively, are forecast later Sat into the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Currituck Beach Light
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Fri -- 03:29 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:55 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:29 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:17 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
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