Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth City, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 930 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch is in effect for NE NC until 6 AM this morning.

This evening, the boundary has dropped south and is now located over southern VA. Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue, with the heaviest activity now focused south of the VA/NC border (where we have the best instability). The highest flash flood threat over the next few hours will exist closer to the Albemarle Sound where heavier showers/storms continue to produce 3-4"+ per hour rainfall rates. Latest CAMs have the heaviest rain continuing to slowly drop further south of the next few hours before dissipating by or shortly before midnight.
Otherwise, overnight lows will be in the mid 60s N to lower 70s SE.

Previous Discussion:

The Flood Watch has been expanded north to include most of metro Richmond given the slight northward push of the front given WSW flow aloft as the next shortwave moves in from the W The placement of the boundary will be crucial for the location of the highest rainfall totals. The 12Z HRRR shows a 70% contour for neighborhood probs of 3"/3 hr across south central VA, with a 50% contour encompassing much of central and south- central VA, and the remainder of zones in the watch within the 30% contour. The main timing for the heaviest rainfall looks like 5pm-11pm Current deterministic QPF forecast through tonight is for 2-3" across most of the area in the Watch (1-2" on the northern tier of counties). As is typically the case, locally higher amounts are possible in areas of training storms.

Temperatures are very cool on the ern shore, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while they have risen into the mid/upper 80s outside of tstms for south central VA and interior NE NC. Rain slowly tapers off after midnight, though will likely linger few hrs longer along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s N to lower 70s SE.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday, but with sfc low pressure pushing offshore of SE VA in the morning, expect the boundary to get pushed back south towards NC, with limited instability to the north. While areas along and S/SW of I-64 are in a Marginal ERO Monday, the risk may become confined to far southern VA and NE NC (unless the front does not sink to the south as predicted). A few showers are still possible closer to the coast in the morning, with aftn PoPs generally only in the chc range except over far southern VA and NE NC (50-70%). Highs Monday will be below avg, generally in the 70s for northern and central zones, with low- mid 80s across the south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled Tuesday with a few late day strong to severe storms possible.

- Mainly dry and hot Wednesday.

Another shortwave, this one a bit stronger is expected to approach from the west with the upper trough on Tuesday. The sfc boundary is expected to wash out, with more of a southerly low level flow developing, along with decent aftn instability. Shear is still modest at best (20-30kt), but mid level lapse rates are a bit stronger so a Marginal risk is in place for the western 2/3 of our VA zones. Would be a wind threat and perhaps hail given better mid level lapse rates. Highs in the lower 80s in the Eastern Shore to upper 80s for portions of south central VA and NE NC. Drying out Tue night, and mainly dry Wednesday as the upper ridge across the SE expands north. Highs Wed should rise into the lower 90s for most, and with a humid airmass, heat indices may rise above 100F. Given the wet soils, suspect the temperatures may not get quite as hot as guidance, but that the humidity will remain high.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Another round of showers Shower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures trending back above normal by mid to late week.

Model 850 mb temperatures rise to 19-20C Thursday, which would support highs into the low- mid 90s, along with continued moderate to high humidity. Heat indices will be the highest on Thursday, likely above 100F, possibly close to headline criteria in the SE (though this is several days out so confidence is not high). There is a SLight risk day 5 for Thursday, given strong instability, enough dry air aloft with strong mid level lapse rates and decent shear.

Slightly cooler (still above avg), with lower humidity and rain-free Friday. Mainly dry WX continues into next weekend, with hot temperatures returning late in the period. In fact, the ensembles are in good agreement with an upper level trough across the western CONUS and a strong upper level ridge in the east, which would bring the potential for an extended hot period in the 8-14 day period.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR to begin the 06z/16 TAF period. Showers in the vicinity of ORF/PHF will diminish in coverage/intensity over the next 1-2 hours, leaving some patchy drizzle and fog at RIC/SBY/PHF through sunrise. IFR/LIFR CIGs are likely to persist through the mid to late morning hours at area terminals today, with IFR to persist through much of the day. At this time, only ECG is expected to break back into VFR by afternoon, with the remaining terminals to remain in IFR to low- end MVFR through Monday evening. A lower shower/tstm coverage is expected this afternoon, mainly impacting ECG through this afternoon. Winds remain NNE 5-8 kt today, becoming light/variable this evening.

Outlook: CIGs quickly fall back into IFR/LIFR range this evening into early Tuesday, with patchy fog again likely. Additional shower/tstm chances are expected Tue aftn/evening, with a lower coverage Wednesday. A cold front will bring another round of scattered showers/tstms later Thu/Thu night.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area through midweek outside of convection.

Early this morning, wavy frontal boundary was oriented just south of the local waters. Latest obs reveal NE winds ~10kt across the northern waters, with more variable winds over southern waters closer to the front. Latest buoy reports indicating seas of 3-4ft, highest north of Parramore Island, with waves 1-2ft.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will meander just south of the area through midweek. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern waters this afternoon, which may lead to additional MWS/SMWs this evening and overnight. Farther north, winds remain E-NE ~10-15kt. Seas remain at 3-4ft through tonight. Onshore flow continues into Tuesday, but ~10kt through the afternoon. Winds veer around to the S-SE, then SW Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the front lifts back north as a warm front in response to high pressure settling out into the western Atlantic. Expecting warmer and breezier conditions for Wed/Thurs ahead of an approaching cold front. Current forecast is for ~15kt with gusts to ~ 20 kt, but cannot totally rule out a brief SCA at this point.

Rip current risk is moderate N and low S today and low rip risk tomorrow.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.