Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth City, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 12, 2019 3:48 AM EST (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:27PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth City, NC
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location: 36.25, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 120658 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 158 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds over the area overnight and into Thursday. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast on Friday, then tracks northeast along the eastern seaboard over the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 940 PM EST Wednesday .

Latest wx analysis reveals 1038+mb Sfc high pressure over the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. Aloft, a pair of shearing upper level waves continue to provide a thinning deck of SCT-BKN Cirrus/Cirrostratus over the coastal plain. Sky has already cleared out inland over RIC metro and the piedmont, with temperatures already in the upper 20s to low 30s over inland sections.

Sfc high builds overhead overnight, and the clearing trend will continue along the coast, with a mainly clear sky for all zones by ~06z/1am EST. Light/calm winds away from the water, clearing sky and drying airmass will bring continued ideal radiating conditions overnight. Therefore, given this and the current obs, nudged temps down a degree or two further from inherited. Lows will range from upper teens to nr 20 in our typical colder NW locations (LKU/FVX) to the low to mid 20s for remaining inland locations and upper 20s to mid 30s along the coastal plain. No other notable changes necessary at this time.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Wednesday .

The high slowly pushes off to the NE on Thursday. After a cold start, afternoon max temps will only rebound into the low/mid 40s for most locations (normal highs are in the low/mid 50s). Sunshine will be plentiful to start the day, then stratocumulus will likely increase along the coast in the afternoon (becoming mostly cloudy for coastal NE NC).

The high pushes off the New England coast Thurs night. Moisture from a developing system to the SSW increases along a sfc trough in vicinity of the mountains while additional moisture is noted along a Carolina coastal trough. Dry air in the lower levels will initially keep most areas pcpn-free through 12Z Fri with the exception of some rain creeping up through coastal NE NC and Va Beach (PoPs ~20%). Will also show slight chc PoPs for portions of the Piedmont for 09z-12z Fri. Depending on the timing of the pcpn early Friday morning, we could see it begin as a brief/light period of ZR/IP given thermal profiles and expected near freezing sfc temps. Will quickly increase cloud cover from SE to NW Thursday night so that all areas show mostly cloudy by early Friday morning. Lows in the upr 20s NW to lwr 40s SE but will likely steady out or rise a bit towards sunrise as the clouds thicken/increase.

The ridging slowly breaks down on Friday with WAA moisture overspreading the area from the SSW throughout the day. The deepest moisture will come up from the SW by late in the day Friday/Friday evening. Thus, will have chc morning PoPs along/west of I-95 (slight chc east) becoming likely far S & W during the afternoon and likely/categorical everywhere by Friday evening/overnight. Again, depending on how fast the pcpn comes in, low level thicknesses suggest a brief period of ZR/IP across NWrn most (climo favored) zones at the onset (12-15z) before sfc temps warm above freezing. Plain rain is then expected the remainder of Friday. Highs on Friday from around 40 over the western-most zones due to the in-situ wedge setup ranging to near 60 across the nrn OBX. Widespread rain Fri night as low pressure tracks NE along the Mid Atlantic coast. Lows upr 30s NW to the lower 50s SE.

Sfc low pressure lifts NE and away from the mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. However, upper level energy rotating in from WNW will generate additional rain chances, especially through the morning. Will lower PoPs a little in the afternoon with potential dry slot arrival. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Wednesday .

Low pressure will continue to move northeast away from the area Saturday, across the Hudson River Valley and into Quebec. Winds will turn northwest behind the low pressure system producing a downslope flow off of the mountains beginning Saturday night, quickly drying the area out. There will only be weak cold air advection as the low moves north, therefore temperatures will remain mild. Saturday and Sunday night temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s on Sunday.

Another low pressure system will develop over the gulf coast states Sunday night and track east as an upper trough amplifies over the central CONUS. The GFS has the center of the low pressure tracking inland, west of the Appalachian mountains, while the Canadian and ECMWF have a low pressure track northeast into the southern Appalachian Monday night and developing a secondary low pressure system somewhere across eastern NC or eastern VA early Tuesday morning. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF and Canadian track. There will be a chance of a rain/snow mix across the northern portions of the forecast area at the onset of the precip Monday morning before a widespread area of rain moves in with the warmer air Monday night.

Temperatures will warm from south to north Monday night with lows in the mid 30s north and low 50s south. With the center of the low pressure tracking over the area, High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 40s in the Piedmont and upper 50/low 60s close to the coast. Cold front will move through behind the low pressure with colder air moving in with high pressure.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 125 AM EST Thursday .

VFR conditions across area terminals through the 06z TAF period. All terminals SKC/clear overnight through Thursday midday. Winds will be light from the N-NE, though some gusts to 10-15 kt expected at ORF overnight. Clouds increase from the E and SE Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

OUTLOOK . The next system brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday through Saturday, first with patchy light rain/drizzle early Friday, then with more widespread light- moderate pcpn later Fri/Sat morning. A gradual return to VFR conditions expected later Sat, with VFR conditions expected later in the weekend into early next week.

MARINE. As of 130 AM EST Thursday .

Strong sfc high pressure (~1037 mb) currently building S into the waters early this morning. Strong low level CAA is overspreading the waters and seeing gusts in the Bay to 25-30 kt. Have added the lower James River to the SCA headlines that had already been in place across the Bay/Ocean/Sound. For the rest of the river zones, issued a short fused MWW to cover ~2 hrs worth of gusts to 20-25 kt with expectation that this will be short lived. Sfc high settles over the area late this morning through the remainder of today with diminishing winds but seas will remain elevated (especially southern coastal waters) into the aftn or evening.

Sfc high pressure drifts off to the NE tonight. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Fri then tracks NE to the mid- Atlantic states by Sat morning. Seas on Sat may flirt with 5 ft offshore but overall sub-SCA conditions are anticipated. A period of stronger winds and additional headlines does look late Sat/Sat night/early Sunday as the sfc low intensifies off the New England coast/Atlantic Canada with high pressure building in from the W.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630- 631-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ638- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM/MAM SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . CP/MPR AVIATION . AJB MARINE . LKB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRFN7 25 mi169 min 3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 25 mi55 min N 13 G 16 44°F 1033.9 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 26 mi49 min 54°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 33 mi49 min 54°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 37 mi55 min NNE 5.1 G 14 39°F 51°F1035.7 hPa
44086 45 mi24 min 55°F5 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 45 mi55 min NNE 18 G 22 39°F 1035.6 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 47 mi55 min N 13 G 17 44°F 55°F1034 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 48 mi55 min NNE 23 G 25 39°F 1035.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi55 min 50°F1036.1 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC2 mi55 minN 1110.00 miFair38°F30°F73%1035.2 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC15 mi74 minNNW 510.00 miFair34°F32°F93%1035.2 hPa
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC24 mi54 minN 410.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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N16N15N12N11NW11NW9NW6NW7NW6W3CalmW4CalmNW3NW6NW6N10N11
1 day agoS9S10S10S10S10S11S12----SW15S16
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S11S9S10S10SW8NW12NW10N8N11N11N10N17
2 days agoSW7W6CalmSE3CalmSE3SE5S7S4S5S7S10SW10S8S8S7--S11S15
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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:43 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:39 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:27 PM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.10.31.12.13.13.94.243.42.41.40.60-00.41.122.83.23.22.721.1

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:40 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     4.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:36 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:26 PM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.10.31233.84.13.93.32.51.50.5-0-0.10.30.91.82.6332.61.91.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.