Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth City, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Cool with increasing clouds and lingering light rain over southeast VA into northeast NC this morning. Partial clearing is expected late this morning into the afternoon.

- Low pressure will develop offshore of the VA/NC coast late today through Thursday, before ejecting farther offshore Thursday night through the weekend. This could result in increasing clouds and a chance for additional areas of light rain along the coast this evening, as cooler and drier conditions develop inland.

Latest analysis reveals elongated area of ~995mb surface low pressure lingering over NB/Atlantic Canada. To the west, a broad area of seasonally cold high pressure of Canadian origin (1035+mb) continued to build south across the northern and central plains early this morning. Aloft, strong upper ridging building SE out of the Canadian Prairies is nudging a broad longwave trough to dig southeast from the TN River Valley into the deep south. The upper trough axis was oriented from SW to NE from the E TN Valley into coastal New England as of this writing.

The digging/amplifying trough has served to enhance lift/forcing a bit more, and has resulted in a narrow band of light rain/drizzle that has pushed across a narrow mid-level frontal zone over our southern tier of counties early this morning. QPF has averaged a few hundredths or less thus far across the US-58 corridor of south central VA, with some observations showing locally higher amounts around a tenth of an inch just south of the VA/NC border from Roanoke Rapids to near Gatesville. This area of spotty light rain/drizzle will continue to lift E-NE through mid- morning. Will taper PoPs off over the next 4-6 hours, with a mainly dry mid-morning into the afternoon as the upper vorticity maxima pivots offshore. Highs mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Expect light rain to blossom once again this evening over eastern VA, the Delmarva coast and coastal NE NC. The upper shortwave will close off, enduring a weak coastal low to develop off the coast of the VA Capes this evening into Thursday morning. Guidance has continued to trend slightly closer to the coast with the sfc low, which should result in additional areas of rainfall wrapping back SSW into coastal VA and NE NC. PoPs have been increased to 20-30% (northeast) 30-50% (southeast)
across the coastal Delmarva down to northeastern North Carolina, including Hampton Roads, for this evening into early Thu morning. Farther inland across the Piedmont and along I-95 expect, gradually clearing skies this afternoon into Thursday morning.

Slightly cooler tonight inland, but lingering clouds and more mixing as a result of the interaction between the departing/deepening low offshore and the high to the west.
Expected lows in the lower to middle 30s along and west of I-95. Still think there could still be some patchy frost, especially well inland toward the US-15 corridor, where sky will likely clear out overnight tonight/early Thu as winds decouple early Thu morning. However, too much uncertainty at this stage to hoist any Frost headlines with this package. Lows along the coast mainly in the 40s to near 50, again a result of the higher cloud cover and the well- mixed boundary layer.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler through the middle of this week as high pressure slowly builds into the region.

The closed low exits offshore through Thu afternoon and night, as high pressure at the sfc and aloft builds east. Mainly sunny inland, with decreasing clouds along the coast and dry weather expected. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday night into Friday is trending toward the best chance for areas of frost across the VA piedmont, with patchy frost possible farther east to areas along the I-95 corridor in central VA and interior NE NC. Lows Thu night in the low to mid 30s inland, low to mid 40s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with seasonable high temperatures returning Friday

- Temperatures trend back above normal through this weekend into early next week, as dry weather and mainly clear/sunny conditions continue to prevail.

00z/16 Model ensembles generally remain in sync with the evolution of the weather pattern for the forecast period. The closed low slides offshore through Friday, with broad upper level ridging building east over the eastern third of the CONUS late this week into the weekend. Strong, albeit modifying, cool high pressure then looks to dominate the weather pattern this weekend into early next week. Temperatures slowly moderate as the high slides offshore, with return flow allowing temperatures to climb back to then above climo across the region over the weekend into early next week, as dry weather prevails under a mainly clear/sunny sky.

Highs for Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the lower to middle 70s, with temperatures warming back into the mid-upper 70s by early next week. Early morning lows over the weekend also modify, from the lower to middle 40s inland, to around 50 along the coast over the weekend to lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 205 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Enhanced lift provided by an amplifying upper level trough is resulting in some light rain/drizzle along a narrow frontal zone, roughly along a line from KGSO to KORF early this morning. Have allowed for some vicinity showers at KORF and KECG through just after sunrise, mainly dry thereafter. NW winds 5-10 kt continue today, gusting to 15-20 kt after onset of diurnal heating later this morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show some moisture at the top of the mixed layer so expect SCT CU during the late morning and into the afternoon hours. Scattered showers are possible at ECG by afternoon, with some additional light rain potentially redeveloping across Hampton Roads Wed evening.
Have held out for now due to lower confidence of areal coverage, but additional rain wording may need to be considered for the ORF/PHF/ECG TAF later today.

Outlook: VFR and mostly dry conditions are expected to continue throughout the week. Breezy again Thu afternoon but winds should decrease as high pressure settles over the region late in the day Thu through the weekend.

MARINE
As of 320 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect into early Friday due to a prolonged period of elevated northerly winds.

- Seas remain elevated into the weekend due to onshore flow.

- A period of benign marine conditions is likely next week.

Early morning surface analysis depicts two areas of low pressure (one in the Gulf of St Lawrence and the other well offshore of the Carolina coastline) and a large 1033mb area of high pressure along the border of NW MO and NE KS. Winds early this morning were generally NNW 15-20 kt across the local waters. Aloft, an upper level trough moves over the area today, becoming neutrally tilted by this evening. As this feature tightens, it should allow for gradual strengthening of the coastal low off the Carolinas as it moves slowly NE through Fri. Models disagree with respect to how close to the coast the low lingers. The NAM is the most aggressive and keeps the low closer to the coast through Fri with strong SCA conditions and perhaps a brief period of Gale conditions.
However, most models keep the low both weaker and farther offshore which allows for solid SCA conditions. As such, will maintain solid SCA conditions (N winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt) from this morning through early Fri morning across the local waters. SCAs have also been expanded to include all the rivers from 10 PM this evening through 1 PM Thu and to include the MD coastal waters from 10 PM this evening through 6 AM Fri.
Will note that SCAs (for winds) may need to be extended longer into Fri if the low trends closer to the coast. Will also note that SCAs for the coastal waters (due to elevated seas) will very likely need to be extended into the weekend. Additionally, while Gale probs remain generally low (<10% apart from 40-45% across the S coastal waters Thu morning), a brief period of gusts around 35 kt early Thu morning is possible (best chance across the S coastal waters). High pressure builds in by Fri with a period of quieter winds likely this weekend into at least early next week. However, elevated seas linger through the weekend due to onshore flow.

Waves and seas were 2-3 ft early this morning. Waves and seas increase to 3-4 ft and 3-5 ft respectively (highest across the S coastal waters) later today. Seas build to 4-7 ft Thu through Sat night and may remain elevated (>5 ft) through Sun.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656-658.