Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aulander, NC
December 10, 2023 6:06 PM EST (23:06 UTC)
Sunrise 7:09AM Sunset 4:56PM Moonrise 4:42AM Moonset 3:01PM
AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ100 404 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A very strong cold front will cross the area late tonight/early Monday morning, bringing strong winds and dangerous marine conditions to all area waterways. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc though the rest of the week.
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A very strong cold front will cross the area late tonight/early Monday morning, bringing strong winds and dangerous marine conditions to all area waterways. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc though the rest of the week.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 102100 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening into tonight.
Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are also possible.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some. Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms across S portions of the area continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the W. A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the FA outside of the far W Piedmont and NE 1/3 of the area until 8 PM due to the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Expect the severe potential to ramp up over the next few hours into this evening as the cold front approaches, especially if a triple point moves into the area. For now, the greatest threat for severe storms is S/SE VA and NE NC where MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Confidence decreases with N extent due to lower CAPE. Several storms along a line extending from Raleigh NNE to South Hill have occasionally been strengthening and have shown at least broad rotation. Will continue to monitor these storms as they move NNE/NE into the FA later this afternoon. As the LLJ ramps up this evening along with the trough becoming negatively tilted, storms may strengthen along the cold front. The severe threat ends from NW to SE as the cold front pushes ESE between 10 PM to 2 AM.
Apart from the severe threat, PWATs have increased to 1.5-1.7" across the area (very anomalous for December). Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3" are expected with this system with localized higher amounts of 3-4". The general consensus among the HRRR/CAMs is for the heaviest swath to set up in a SW to NE orientation roughly from Mecklenburg to the Northern Neck with the Tri-cities in the swath. Localized flash flooding is possible in areas of training storms, especially in urban areas.
However, due to the drought, the soil can handle quite a bit of rainfall and therefore this will be a beneficial rain for most.
Lastly, expect temps to drop rapidly along with gusty NW winds with gusts of 35-45+ mph behind the cold front. Make sure any outdoor holiday decorations are secured and don't blow away. Stratiform precip will continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning.
However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro). Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Sunday...
MVFR and IFR conditions continue through tonight with IFR CIGs spreading E later this afternoon into tonight. Rounds of rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue through tonight ahead of and behind a strong cold front with thunderstorm chances only ahead of the front until around midnight. Occasional drops in VIS to IFR is likely. Gusty winds are possible with any storms.
The strongest winds will come behind the cold front as winds shift from S 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt ahead to NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt behind the front. LLWS is expected as well this evening into early tonight with the highest confidence at ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY. As the storm system moves away from the local area late tonight into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z). Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected Mon and a return to VFR conditions.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631-654-656.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening into tonight.
Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are also possible.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some. Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms across S portions of the area continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the W. A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the FA outside of the far W Piedmont and NE 1/3 of the area until 8 PM due to the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Expect the severe potential to ramp up over the next few hours into this evening as the cold front approaches, especially if a triple point moves into the area. For now, the greatest threat for severe storms is S/SE VA and NE NC where MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Confidence decreases with N extent due to lower CAPE. Several storms along a line extending from Raleigh NNE to South Hill have occasionally been strengthening and have shown at least broad rotation. Will continue to monitor these storms as they move NNE/NE into the FA later this afternoon. As the LLJ ramps up this evening along with the trough becoming negatively tilted, storms may strengthen along the cold front. The severe threat ends from NW to SE as the cold front pushes ESE between 10 PM to 2 AM.
Apart from the severe threat, PWATs have increased to 1.5-1.7" across the area (very anomalous for December). Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3" are expected with this system with localized higher amounts of 3-4". The general consensus among the HRRR/CAMs is for the heaviest swath to set up in a SW to NE orientation roughly from Mecklenburg to the Northern Neck with the Tri-cities in the swath. Localized flash flooding is possible in areas of training storms, especially in urban areas.
However, due to the drought, the soil can handle quite a bit of rainfall and therefore this will be a beneficial rain for most.
Lastly, expect temps to drop rapidly along with gusty NW winds with gusts of 35-45+ mph behind the cold front. Make sure any outdoor holiday decorations are secured and don't blow away. Stratiform precip will continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning.
However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro). Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Sunday...
MVFR and IFR conditions continue through tonight with IFR CIGs spreading E later this afternoon into tonight. Rounds of rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue through tonight ahead of and behind a strong cold front with thunderstorm chances only ahead of the front until around midnight. Occasional drops in VIS to IFR is likely. Gusty winds are possible with any storms.
The strongest winds will come behind the cold front as winds shift from S 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt ahead to NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt behind the front. LLWS is expected as well this evening into early tonight with the highest confidence at ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY. As the storm system moves away from the local area late tonight into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z). Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected Mon and a return to VFR conditions.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631-654-656.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA | 54 mi | 48 min | S 13G | 67°F | 53°F | 29.78 | ||
| CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA | 57 mi | 48 min | S 14G | 64°F | 29.77 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KASJ TRICOUNTY,NC | 4 sm | 21 min | S 10G16 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.78 |
Wind History from ASJ
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suffolk, Nansemond River, Virginia, Tide feet
Suffolk
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EST 0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:22 AM EST 4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 PM EST 0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM EST 3.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EST 0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:22 AM EST 4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 PM EST 0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM EST 3.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 3.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.8 |
| 8 am |
| 4.2 |
| 9 am |
| 4.1 |
| 10 am |
| 3.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Wakefield, VA,
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