Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mountain Home, AR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:58PM Friday November 27, 2020 10:22 PM CST (04:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mountain Home, AR
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location: 36.34, -92.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 272257 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 457 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

DISCUSSION.

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below .

AVIATION.

Expect VFR conditions to remain dominant for most terminals through this TAF period However. some MVFR CIGs will remain possible at LLQ this evening . along with some VCSH. NRLY winds and drier air should keep fog from forming during the morning hrs on Sat.

PREV DISCUSSION. (ISSUED 300 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020)

SHORT TERM . Tonight Through Sunday

Much of the FA was situated between a warm fnt to our S and a CDFNT situated ovr NW AR this aftn. Abundant cloud cover was noted with mid aftn temps ranging fm the mid 50s to the mid 60s acrs AR. Sctd showers cont to affect mainly SE AR, as a weak sfc low tracked along the warm fnt, resulting in incrsd isentropic lift to the N of the bndry.

The aforementioned CDFNT wl cont to work thru the rest of the FA tngt, with high pres settling into the region. May see some small rain chcs linger ovr far SE AR early this evening, but wl make a last minute call on PoPs. Cloud cover tngt wl make for a tricky low temp fcst as skies clear ovr NW AR and with mid and high lvl clouds lingering acrs the SE. Lows wl range fm near 30 north to the lower and mid 40s south. High pres wl provide dry and cool conds on Sat.

The calm wx wl be short-lived as the progressive upr flow pattern brings yet another storm sys back to the region on Sun. Clouds wl incrs once again fm the SW late Sat/Sat night. Rain chcs wl also be on the incrs Sat ngt, mainly acrs the SW half of the FA. It wl take some time to saturate the lower lvls, so the onset of rainfall was slowed a bit compared to model guidance. Widespread rain is expected Sun as the assocd closed upr low apchs AR fm the W. Temps profiles aloft Sun mrng still are not favorable for much in the way of wintry precip ovr N AR, but this wl cont to be closing monitored.

LONG TERM . Sunday Night Through Friday

The extended term will begin with a low exiting the region, with precipitation tapering off by Monday morning, as surface high pressure builds into the region behind a front. Another shortwave will rapidly push thru the area on Monday, followed by the development of a northwesterly flow aloft.

Forecast confidence from Wednesday thru Friday is quite low; the models are showing substantial differences, and major changes to the existing forecast could occur as the solution becomes more clear. Using 5 different models for guidance, two models cluster toward one solution, with 3 models showing notable differences from the rest.

The ECMWF solution is fairly similar to the German ICON model, which splits the upper level flow on Wednesday and forms a closed low over the southwest, with another in the midwest. The other solutions tend to have a single closed low aloft, more-or-less over the Great Plains in the same timeframe.

Long story short, the differences in the models could make the difference between wintry weather across the area late next week, versus rain. At the moment - because of the low uncertainty in the forecast - I am using a conservative blend of the models which leans more toward a rain type of event. It should be noted, however, that this could change to a winter weather event if the models should shift more toward the split-flow type of solution.

LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NONE.

Aviation . 62


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baxter County Airport, AR5 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair44°F30°F60%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBPK

Wind History from BPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SE3SE4SE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN434N7--65CalmN4N5N5N3Calm
1 day ago4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--S54SW7S55--SE6SE5SE6S6S6SE4S6
2 days agoSE7S5CalmSE9SE5S5S4--SW5NW8
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--NW7--64--54NW45

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Springfield, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.