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FXUS65 KVEF 022108 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 208 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures are expected through Friday. Over the weekend, a strong system will approach the region, bringing widespread strong winds on Saturday with cooler temperatures, light precipitation across the southern Great Basin, and continued gusty winds along the Interstate 15 corridor for Sunday. Improving conditions are expected early next week with temperatures slowly moderating.


SHORT TERM
Today and Friday.

Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue through Friday as a weak trough in the Intermountain West moves east. Lingering north- south pressure gradients will foster continued north breezes down the Colorado River Valley today with wave heights of 1 to 2 feet expected on Lake Havasu. Elsewhere, expect mostly clear skies and southwest afternoon breezes today and Friday.


LONG TERM
Saturday through next Wednesday.

At the start of the period, a strong closed low is forecast to move into the west coast. Ahead of the low, notable surface pressure falls will occur over the Great Basin, driving strong south- southwest winds across the entire forecast area. Latest NBM guidance paints all but southern San Bernardino and southern Mohave counties with 50-90% chances of impactful winds on Saturday. Chances of 55+ mph winds have increased in area, with the highest chances existing across western San Bernardino, Inyo, Esmeralda, southern Nye, Lincoln, and northern Clark counties. Winds remain strong into Sunday afternoon as the low traverses the Great Basin, with a northwesterly wind shift pushing northwest-to-southeast throughout the day.

As such, High Wind Watches have been hoisted across the region Saturday morning through late Saturday night. However, for locations along the Interstate 15 corridor including Las Vegas, Pahrump, Barstow, Baker, Overton, Mesquite, and Laughlin, due to elevated winds persisting overnight into Sunday, the High Wind Watch will continue for these areas through late Sunday afternoon.

The other aspect of this system we'll have to monitor is precipitation potential. Ensemble guidance depicts a tongue of 150- 200% of normal PWATs feeding into our area ahead of the trough axis.
While not overly impressive moisture values when you consider normal for early May is about 0.37", it'll be enough to spur 30-60% PoPs across the southern Great Basin. High snow levels should prohibit any wintry impacts below 8000 ft, though locations above 8000 ft could see beneficial snow on the peaks. The NBM the percentile (reasonable worst-case scenario) keeps QPF values generally below 0.50", except on the Sierra crest where it gets up to 0.90". As such, rainfall impacts should be minimal (if any) in these locations. The one caveat to this will be the development of convection. The anomalous closed low will feature very cold air aloft, with deterministic guidance showing 500mb temps less than - 20C. If the low's center can pass through during peak heating on Sunday, we could see a thunderstorms in parts of the area, which will result in locally higher rainfall. Currently, best chances of thunder remain over Lincoln County and the Arizona Strip with around 15% chance.

As the weekend system pulls away on Monday, winds weaken, PoPs wane, and temperatures quickly rebound. By mid-week, highs are forecast to be within a few degrees of normal, far from the 10-15 degrees below normal forecast for Sunday. Afternoon breezes will persist, but not of the magnitude nor impact of this weekend's winds.


AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Light easterly winds of less than 8kts this afternoon will come around to the southwest by late afternoon, with speeds increasing to 10-12kts. Winds will decrease after sunset and remain light into Friday morning. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, with northeast winds in the late morning and early afternoon turning to the southwest by late afternoon.
Winds will increase by Saturday afternoon, with southwest gusts over 40kts possible by Saturday evening. VFR conditions will prevail across the valley through Friday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Surface winds at KBIH will favor a northerly direction through the forecast period, with speeds remaining less than 12kts.
Westerly winds to 15kts are expected at KDAG through the TAF period, while winds in the lower CRV will be lighter and favor typical diurnal trends. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley will also favor typical diurnal trends through Friday, with speeds generally 12kts or less. All areas will see gusty southwest winds develop by Saturday afternoon, with gusts over 40kts possible by Saturday evening. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday.


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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