Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:16 AM   Moonset 3:22 PM

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FXUS64 KTSA 041736 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1236 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Latest surface observations/analysis depicts a weak cold front positioned just south of the I-44 corridor in northeast OK. The cold front will continue to progress at a slow pace southeastward through the afternoon. Radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms are already beginning to form in the vicinity and just ahead of the frontal boundary. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through the afternoon, especially along the front. With 0-6km shear values fairly weak, not anticipating widespread organized severe thunderstorms, though there is enough lift and instability to produce a few storms with robust updrafts, capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and gusty winds. Additionally, storms today will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. With recent rainfall over the past week or so, even brief periods/bursts of heavy rain could lead to minor flooding and possibly flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all the CWA today. Otherwise, not too many changes were made to this morning's forecast package.

Mejia

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Focus will turn to tonight and Sunday when chances for widespread showers and storms increase in association with an upper disturbance lifts northeast from Texas into Oklahoma and Arkansas. The severe threat will remain low, however higher areal coverage along with heavier rainfall threat will exist, and will increase flood potential- especially across areas that are already saturated. The previously issued flood watch will be in effect from 7am today through 7pm Sunday. Rain and storms will diminish in areal coverage later in the day Sunday, which will keep most of Sunday night and part of Monday quiet. A strong upper trough axis will swing out the mountain west region and into the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop to the west along the dryline late in the day and advance east into northeast OK Monday evening/night. There is some uncertainty to the southern extent of the line as it enters E OK, so will keep the highest PoPs across NE OK and NW AR Monday night.
At this time, all modes of severe are possible, but this will come into better focus as the event draws closer. After a lull Tuesday, additional storms are expected with the cold front that moves into the area Wednesday. Frontal timing suggest better storm chances will be across SE OK and NW AR Wednesday and Thursday. The slow moving upper low across the upper CONUS may move far enough east to push the boundary through the area and allow cooler and drier air to filter into the area by Friday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Ongoing storms over north central OK are likely to weaken as they spread toward NE OK terminals, however additional showers and storms may expand later this morning along the trailing cold front. The forecast will account for this possibility with at least isolated to scattered convection spreading eastward through the early to late morning hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are also possible generally area wide late tonight through the morning.
Storm chances continue through the day with the focus being the remnant outflow / weak cold front. More organized and widespread convection is expected into the region this evening into tomorrow night.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front continues to slowly push southeastward across eastern OK and northwest AR early this afternoon. Convection along the frontal boundary has been mostly isolated to scattered in nature.
Nonetheless, periodic and intermittent MVFR/VFR ceilings will be possible, especially for the northwest AR and southeast OK terminals where the greatest probabilities of showers/thunderstorms exist through the remainder of the afternoon. More organized and widespread convection is still forecast to move into the region this evening and persist through the rest of the forecast period.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 60 72 61 / 50 70 90 20 FSM 81 65 74 64 / 50 60 100 30 MLC 81 64 74 64 / 60 80 100 20 BVO 74 54 71 56 / 30 60 80 20 FYV 80 60 74 60 / 60 60 90 40 BYV 79 60 71 60 / 50 50 80 40 MKO 78 62 71 61 / 60 70 100 20 MIO 75 56 70 59 / 40 50 80 30 F10 79 60 72 61 / 60 80 90 20 HHW 78 65 73 64 / 40 70 90 20

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019- 020-029.

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