Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:30 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KTSA 271042 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 542 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1.) Mostly quiet weather for the forecast area through noon today, with just a few showers and storms for SE OK and NW AR.

2.) The severe weather threat will ramp up from west to east during the afternoon, continuing into the overnight hours and transitioning into more of a flood threat with time.

3.) All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall leading to flooding.

Details:

For the first part of the day Saturday, a few showers and isolated storms may occur at times for portions of southeast OK and northwest AR, but overall conditions are expected to be breezy but otherwise quiet.

By early afternoon CAMs show a full recovery from any convective effects of yesterday or this morning, with plentiful moisture and warm temperatures resulting in deep and strong instability. As the upper level trough nudges into the area during the afternoon and the low level jet begins ramping up, speed and directional shear will increase, bowing out hodographs and greatly increasing effective wind shear. On paper, all of the ingredients are in place to support a significant severe weather outbreak, including strong long track tornadoes, very large hail, and powerful damaging wind gusts. The SPC and WPC both have moderate risk outlooks over the area for severe weather and excessive rainfall, respectively. As always, its the details that matter, and having these conditions in place does not guarantee significant severe weather will actually develop. But it does mean that it would be prudent to be prepared for the potential.

One consideration for today will be a cluster of storms that is expected to form over northwest Texas tonight. It should persist and track into north-central OK during the early afternoon.
Depending on its timing, track, and intensity it could modify the convective environment for the "main event" that will develop later in the day. It's not impossible to imagine a case with more widespread precipitation and clouds earlier on lessing the potential of the storms later in the day. Either way, additional thunderstorm activity will likely form along the dry line in the mid afternoon to evening hours. These storms will occur as upper level diffluence increases and an already strong low level jet further intensifies. Severe weather is likely by this point, including the potential for all severe hazards. Over time, this convective activity will translate east, morphing into a linear feature. As this occurs the threat will primarily shift to wind and potentially QLCS tornadoes. Additionally, training rainfall will likely occur, with CAM guidance depicting totals of several inches for portions of the area, especially in northeast OK.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Heavy rainfall will gradually shift eastwards overnight and finally move out of the area later on Sunday. Storm totals should exceed 1" in all locations, with many areas seeing 2 to locally 4+ inch totals. Such heavy rainfall will result in localized flash flooding and river flooding in spots. A Flood Watch is in effect on account of this threat.

After Sunday, a few lingering storms could still pop up Monday or Tuesday, but conditions will be mostly quiet with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Another weather system will impact the area Wednesday and Thursday resulting in some cooling and a return of showers and thunderstorms. Some severe weather may also occur during this period, though the potential is expected to be much lower than what we will be dealing with today.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The morning should be quiet at all sites with MVFR cigs and LLWS conditions. By early afternoon, CAMs indicate potential for pop-up showers and storms from KMLC over into the W AR TAFs. Meanwhile, storm development gets going to the west btwn 18Z and 21Z, with at least sct storms near the NE OK sites btwn 21Z and 00Z. A larger complex organizes this evening and then sweeps east overnight.
Inserted gusty wind potential at most sites (except NE OK) with the squall line with impacts into NW AR ongoing at the end of this forecast. MVFR cigs initially this morning will become VFR by midday, potentially dipping to MVFR with any storm activity. MVFR cigs return to some eastern sites by 12Z Sunday morning.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 63 78 58 / 70 100 70 10 FSM 81 67 76 62 / 80 70 100 40 MLC 81 64 77 60 / 70 90 90 10 BVO 80 60 78 52 / 70 80 60 10 FYV 78 63 73 57 / 70 80 100 40 BYV 78 63 72 58 / 60 60 90 50 MKO 80 62 76 58 / 60 90 90 10 MIO 80 61 74 56 / 50 90 90 20 F10 79 62 77 58 / 70 100 70 10 HHW 80 64 75 61 / 80 80 100 30

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Springfield, MO,