Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eureka Springs, AR

SHORT TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

This morning's MCS that pushed across southern/central/southeast OK continues to decay, but is still producing scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder across eastern OK early this afternoon. Hi-res, short-range models continue to indicate some destabilization along residual outflow boundaries later this afternoon and into this evening, mainly across northeast OK and northwest AR, but the thick cloud cover across the region has really complicated how much destabilization will actually occur.
Will maintain low-moderate (20-40%) PoPs through the early evening hours.

Forecast uncertainty continues through the late evening and overnight hours tonight with some significant differences in hi- res and global model data. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS late tonight. It's exact orientation and track as well as overall atmospheric stability will determine rainfall chances through the remainder of the short term period. A surface cold front will slowly push southward and into far northern OK by daybreak Friday. ECMWF and the NAM 3km solutions seem to be the outliers in the global models, bringing in a northwest-to- southeast advancing MCS-type event, originating near the frontal boundary in KS, across eastern OK overnight tonight. With high uncertainty, went ahead and ran with NBM PoPs for now, but these PoPs will likely need to be adjusted through the evening and night. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night is in store, with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s and light southerly winds.

Mejia

LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the forecast area from the northwest mid-late morning Friday. The front will likely slow down and perhaps stall across southeast OK by Friday evening, then diffusing/eroding during the daytime Saturday. Despite mid-level ridging build overhead, the presence of the surface front and subtle perturbations in the ridge will keep shower and thunderstorms chances in the forecast through at least Saturday.
Severe storm chances will be highly limited, if at all, and mostly confined near the front due to weak-modest shear availability.

A wet pattern will likely continue through the daytime on Sunday as modest to strong warm air advection occurs as a warm front pushes through the forecast area. Weak flow aloft will continue to greatly limit severe storm potential.

Stronger upper-level southwest flow remains on track to occur during the early-mid part of next week as a more potent upper- level low moves from the Great Basin region and over the Plains Monday/Tuesday. This storm system will be accompanied by another surface frontal system that will be moving into the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Severe thunderstorm chances will be increasing ahead of the front possibly as early as Monday night, continuing into Tuesday and into Wednesday as the front is forecast to stall across the forecast area. The main forcing still looks to remain north of the TSA CWA, where the upper-level low will track, but storms ahead and along the cold front will be capable of producing strong to severe storms. More details to come later. The unsettled weather is expected to resume into next Thursday as well.

Mejia

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of E OK and NW AR this evening. During the overnight period, a complex of thunderstorms may move into the region and impact E OK sites.
Confidence in this scenario and magnitude of impacts remains low, but did include PROB30 groups for E OK sites. Low clouds and MVFR to IFR cigs are likely to develop areawide by late tonight into tomorrow morning. Additionally, latest guidance continues to suggest potential for fog development and reduced vsbys during the early morning hours, especially for NW AR sites. This potential will need to be monitored for the next TAF issuance. Flight categories are forecast to increase back to VFR areawide by tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 79 59 72 / 40 60 40 60 FSM 63 84 65 79 / 40 50 30 60 MLC 61 81 62 77 / 40 50 50 80 BVO 58 79 55 70 / 60 60 40 50 FYV 59 81 58 75 / 40 60 30 50 BYV 60 79 59 70 / 30 60 20 40 MKO 60 78 60 73 / 30 60 40 70 MIO 60 77 57 70 / 50 70 20 40 F10 60 78 61 72 / 40 60 50 80 HHW 61 80 64 78 / 40 30 30 70

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.