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FXUS64 KTSA 291132 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 532 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Shortwave ridging will pass across the area today ahead of the next approaching storm system that is currently digging toward the Baja coast. Expect some passing high clouds this afternoon with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday as southerly flow and thickness values increase. Did adjust highs above blended guidance given recent performance and cool bias associated with these conditions.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 29 202

Isentropic and synoptic lift begin to increase overnight and become maximized Thursday evening as the negatively tilted trough axis pass through eastern Oklahoma. PWAT values are forecast to increase into the 1-1.25" range which is in the 90-95th percentile for this time of year. Sufficient elevated instability will also exist in combination with the increase low level moisture for scattered storms to develop across southeast Oklahoma by late Thursday morning then spread north across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas during the afternoon. A low threat of severe storms will exist mainly across southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and early evening as a strong jet core rounds the base of the trough and passes through the region.
Given the elevated nature of the storms large hail will be the primary threat. A few strong storms could make it into the river valley in Arkansas before the instability begins to fade by mid evening. The latest guidance gives widespread rainfall amounts from around 6/10" in northeast Oklahoma to over 1" from the far southeast part of the state into west-central Arkansas by the end of the event. The wettest models (top 10%) indicate total nears 2" may occur in localized spots.

With the increased cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures will drop back to near average values in the lower to mid 50s on Thursday. Modified continental polar air on the back side of the system will cool things further on Friday as clouds are slow to clear from the south and a trailing shortwave trough passes to our northwest. Friday looks to be the coldest day of the 7-day period.

A broad longwave trough is expected to eventually develop by the weekend with additional shortwaves crossing eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Saturday evening and again late Sunday. The trend has been for low (10-15%) rain chances to hang on across the far eastern portions of the area these days and have maintained that for now as a number of ensemble members continue to show light precipitation. With a more maritime influence and flow off the Pacific, temperatures are expected to rebound over the weekend with high temperatures topping out at or slightly above normal (mid 50s to lower 60s areawide).

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight, and LLWS will also be mentioned overnight as the low level jet strengthens. The better rain chances will hold off until just beyond this valid forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 46 56 41 / 0 20 80 90 FSM 64 44 57 47 / 0 30 100 100 MLC 63 46 59 42 / 0 40 100 70 BVO 61 41 56 36 / 0 20 70 90 FYV 60 41 56 43 / 0 20 100 100 BYV 60 44 54 47 / 0 20 100 100 MKO 62 45 55 42 / 0 30 100 90 MIO 59 43 54 42 / 0 20 80 100 F10 63 46 56 40 / 0 30 90 80 HHW 63 46 59 45 / 0 60 100 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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