Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Mills, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect through midnight tonight for all central, eastern, and southeastern Virginia counties/independent cities along with southeast Maryland.

- Heavy rainfall will bring a flash flooding threat, especially for vulnerable areas that have received significant rain the past several days.

GOES Visible imagery is showing the thick cloud cover that was across the area this morning starting to scatter out this afternoon. With sunshine making its way to the surface, temperatures have been able to reach the lower to mid 80s, with a few areas reaching the upper 80s. Temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees over the next few hours. With the addition of sunshine and increasing temperatures, mesoanalysis reveals between 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across our area. PW values remain at 2"+, so the stage is being set for another round of convection. KAKQ radar is detecting a the development of showers and thunderstorms between Mecklenburg and Sussex, which are right along a weak boundary. This boundary will continue to support the continual development of storms over the next few hours, so there are further flooding concerns for this afternoon. The boundary extends just south of where some of the heaviest rainfall fell last night and early this morning, so we will continue to keep a close eye on any developing storms in this area, as flash-flood guidance in these more vulnerable areas is very low and it will not take much for further flooding.

Additionally, a slow-moving shortwave trough is moving across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon which will provide some upper-level support so storms can sustain themselves for longer periods of time.
With the steering flow negligible, the main threat will continue to be flash-flooding. Slow moving to almost stationary storms will lead to extended periods of heavy rainfall for localized areas across our forecast area. The challenge is pinpointing exactly where any storm development will take place heading into the evening. Due to the increased vulnerability of areas between Farmville and Petersburg, WPC has upgraded this small area to a Moderate ERO. WPC has a majority of our forecast area in a Slight ERO today, and scattered instances of flash-flooding are possible. A Marginal ERO is in place across eastern North Carolina where isolated instances of flash- flooding could occur.

As we lose daytime heating this evening into tonight, convection should taper off but cannot rule out a few additional showers.
Pending the end time of convection, patchy fog could develop overnight. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow.
No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible.

Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion of our area reach the 105F+ criteria.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are currently ongoing at all terminals this afternoon. Cloud cover is starting to dwindle from west to east, so clouds should scatter out starting at RIC. Have included TEMPOS to account for the low CIGS through 19Z. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms have started to develop in the southern part of the forecast area and are moving northeast. Convective coverage should increase over the next few hours, and have included a PROB30 at ORF, PHF, and RIC. Did not have enough confidence in timing to include a TEMPO for thunderstorms at any of these terminals, so amendments will likely be necessary. Storms will decrease in coverage overnight, though some fog and low stratus are possible at the terminals early tomorrow morning. Winds outside of convection will be southwest at 5-10 kts, possibly becoming light and variable overnight.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to recur Wed. Shower/storm coverage is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

MARINE
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday night, outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

Strong high pressure well offshore continues to keep the prevailing southerly flow across the local waters. Winds are mostly S-SE 5-10 kt with gusts from convection up to 15 kt. The pressure gradient sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure tracks well N of the area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt SW winds are expected through Wednesday. Beginning Wednesday night, SCA conditions are likely, as local probabilities now show 80-99% for 18 kt sustained winds over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Although, confidence for headlines over the coastal waters is lower, as the probability for sustained 25 kt is only up to 10%. Winds may remain elevated through the day Thursday and begin to decrease Thursday night. Since the timeframe is still a few periods out, opting to hold off on headlines for now. Waves and seas remain benign around 1 ft and 2 ft, respectively. Although likely staying benign through the forecast period, waves and seas will increase slightly Wednesday night to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively, before decreasing again Thursday night.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow as seas will build throughout the day and the swell will become more shore normal. A low risk remains for the southern beaches.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain.

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early tomorrow afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast over the next few hours and is expected to crest just after midnight tonight.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.