South Mills, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Mills, NC

June 17, 2024 12:40 AM EDT (04:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 3:24 PM   Moonset 1:31 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 945 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Overnight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 945 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure currently centered to the north of the waters will shift offshore early this week. Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Mills, NC
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 941 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and mainly dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of the week ahead.

As of 940 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mild and comfortable tonight. Some increasing clouds possible overnight west of I-95.

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb high pressure centered off the coast of Southern New England, as developing low pressure lifts across the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes. A warm front extends SSW from this system across the Ohio Valley and into the western Carolinas. Aloft, troughing across the eastern Plains states gives way to ridging building into the region from the Carolinas. Dry and pleasant across the region this evening with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mainly clear this evening with some increasing clouds late tonight across the VA piedmont. Otherwise, dry with comfortable humidity levels and early morning low temps in the lower to mid 60s.

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend continues Monday and Tuesday, but with manageable humidity levels.

Center of surface high pressure moves offshore of the New England coast for Monday, but continues to ridge W-SW into the region. Resultant onshore (SSE) flow across the area therefore persists, keeping coastal communities a bit cooler with warmest readings over NW portions of the area. Meanwhile, the main weather story for the first half of the week will be the anomalously strong upper heat ridge that continues to build over the mid-Atlantic region. No major change in thinking for temps. Surface ridge offshore should keep temperatures near or just above climo normals. Model thickness values/MOS guidance remain in good alignment, with expected highs in the mid 80s along the coast to around 90 degrees for inland areas. Early morning low temps fall into the mid to upper 60s.

H5 heights rise to ~596 dam Tuesday. Again, the warmest temps are forecast from the Richmond metro north. Afternoon dew points remain in the 60s with relative higher values across the N and NW portions of the area, resulting in heat indices in the mid 90s. The core of the upper ridge will lift north of the area Tuesday evening with low temps again in the mid 60s.

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather likely persists through the work week. However, humidity levels remain in check through much of the week.

- Hottest days look to be Friday through next weekend, with humidity also recovering closer to seasonal levels during that same period.

Main weather story for the latter half of the week will be the slowly building very warm/hot temperatures and dry conditions across the region from late week, culminating in the warmest part of the week next weekend.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around ~600 dam over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain the atypical temperature pattern Wed-Thu, with slightly warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps each day mainly in the low 90s, with mid to upper 80s along the coast.
And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we don't appear likely to see heat indices in the triple digits through Thursday.

EPS/GEFS guidance does (very) slowly break down the heat ridge for the mid to late week period, as an inverted upper trough pushes ashore along the deep south from the western Atlantic, undercutting the core of the heat ridge aloft to our north. As the heat ridge remains in control, this portends continued very warm/dry conditions through the upcoming work week.

Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be Friday into next weekend, as high pressure slides offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern then allows heat to build Friday with highs into the mid 90s, as dewpoints/PW values recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and in the low 100s on Sunday.
Lastly, it is a ways off, but worth noting that LREF/NBM probs are >30-40% of Max T AOA 100 over the I-95 corridor next weekend. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week but will average in the low to mid 70s next weekend as the PWs increase again. A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by next weekend, as a weak lee trough sets up Sat/Sun.

As of 745 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure is centered off the coast as of 00z. VFR with FEW-SCT mid clouds with bases of 6-8kft around and W of RIC. The wind is SE 5-10kt. VFR and dry conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Mid level clouds with bases of 6-8kft could become BKN late tonight into early Monday morning, especially at RIC.
Mostly sunny Monday with FEW-SCT aftn CU inland. The wind overnight is expected to be light out of the SE, and then become S ~10kt inland and SE ~10kt along the coast late in the morning and into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and relatively benign pattern in place across the waters for much of the week.

- Gusty SE winds this afternoon into this evening, especially in the bay.

- Near Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Chesapeake Bay for Monday afternoon and evening.

Winds are gradually turning SE as the high over the NE states shifts offshore. This high will become nearly stationary just north of Bermuda for much of the week. Winds will continue to increase especially in the bay this afternoon into early this evening as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Am not expecting small craft advisory conditions, but there may be a few gusts to 20 kt late this afternoon into this evening in the bay. Winds decrease tonight, then increase again on Monday afternoon. Guidance shows a slightly tighter pressure gradient Monday afternoon and guidance has come in a tad stronger with winds. May see brief small craft advisory conditions in the bay Monday afternoon/evening as wind probs show about a 50-60 percent prob of 18kt+ winds. Not enough confidence at this time to issue a SCA but it will be monitored.

Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite stagnant through the remainder of the week with southerly winds of 5-15 kt with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-2 ft in the bay through Wed. Waves may increase to 3 to 4 feet on Thu and Friday as some SE swell moves toward the area.

Will keep with the moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. With waves approaching 3 feet in the southern waters, will introduce a moderate rip current risk for that area as well for Monday. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday which will keep the moderate confined to the northern beaches. By mid week, there is a hint of a little SE swell that may push seas to 3-4 ft. If this happens, there will be elevated rip risks through the end of the week.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 23 mi52 minSSE 4.1G6 79°F30.20
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 31 mi52 minSSE 8.9G12 30.20
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 34 mi52 minESE 8.9G8.9 30.21
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 35 mi44 min 75°F3 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 35 mi52 min 77°F30.23
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 37 mi52 minSSE 8G12 30.21
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi52 minSE 8.9G11 30.21
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 37 mi52 minSE 7G8.9 30.20
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 39 mi70 min 74°F 74°F3 ft
44064 40 mi40 minSSE 9.7G12 71°F 75°F1 ft
44087 41 mi44 min 76°F1 ft
CHBV2 42 mi52 minSSE 11G12 30.17
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 45 mi44 min 75°F2 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia, Tide feet

Tide / Current for Money Point, South Bridge, Elizabeth River, Virginia
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Money Point, South Bridge, Elizabeth River, Virginia, Tide feet

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   

Wakefield, VA,

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