Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Mills, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 840 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly cooler this evening with an increase in clouds.

Evening surface analysis depicted a 1030mb high pressure centered over the Great Lakes with a 990mb low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes. The associated backdoor cold front has moved through the local area. Aloft, broad ridging remains over the SE CONUS with an upper trough digging into west TX.

Temps as of 840 PM were generally in the low 70s for most apart from low to mid 60s across coast and upper to middle 50s across the Eastern Shore with partly cloudy skies due to a potent cirrus Deck. Most of the area will remain dry this evening, however, can't rule out a few light showers across the NW counties tonight. Cooler tonight than last night with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the MD Eastern Shore to the mid and upper 50s across the remainder of the FA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A weak front lifts back to the north on Monday with low level moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

-Scattered showers are possible Monday night into Wednesday afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

A weak frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Monday with southerly flow and thinning clouds by the afternoon (partly cloudy skies). Mon remains dry with highs in the low-mid 80s inland and 60s across the Eastern Shore. A cold front approaches from the N Mon night before stalling over the area into Tue, eventually pushing S of the local area Tue night as a backdoor cold front. As such, scattered showers are possible ahead of and along the front Mon night into Tue night mainly across S portions of the FA (30-50% PoPs). A few storms are also possible Tue afternoon into early Tue night across far S VA/NE NC. Depending on the timing of the front, additional scattered showers are possible Wed across S portions of the FA (particularly if the front is delayed). Any showers taper off by Wed evening. Highs are expected to range from the low-mid 80s (most in the lower 80s) Tue with 70s (lower 70s E to upper 70s W)
Wed.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A weakening frontal boundary will meander over the region through the week with daily chances for showers and a few storms.

- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s through the week.

Aloft, an upper level ridge remains across the area through Fri with a shortwave trough passing to the N Sat. At the surface, high pressure moves from interior New England on Thu to off the New England coastline by Fri. As such, expect onshore flow with relatively cooler temps Thu and warming temps Fri into Sat. Highs in the lower 70s E to upper 70s W Thu, mid 70s to lower 80s Fri, and low-mid 80s Sat are expected. An area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and into Canada Fri into Sat, pushing a warm front N across the area Fri before the associated cold front moves through Sat afternoon into Sat night. As such, scattered showers are possible across mainly the Piedmont Thu into Thu night with the warm front (25-35% PoPs). Shower chances increase Fri afternoon with a few storms possible across the Piedmont (30-50% PoPs). However, the highest chance for showers and storms appears to be Sat with the cold front as PoPs increase to 40-60%.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 PM EDT Sunday...

Winds became E - SE this evening between 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt around ORF. Later this evening winds will diminish to ~5 kt before becoming SE 5-10 kt Mon. SCT- BKN cirrus will linger over the area through the 00z taf period.
Some CU have also developed across portions of central VA (~4500-5000 ft CIGs ) and will continue to be possible through this afternoon at mainly RIC. Mid level stratus move in tonight with CIGs lowering into Mon morning. MVFR CIGs are possible at all terminals except SBY Mon morning (2500-3000 ft CIGs ).
Additionally, cannot rule out a few isolated light showers tonight NW/N of RIC.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and degraded CIGs are possible Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front moves S through the area Tue with daily low chances for scattered showers/storms.

MARINE
As of 700 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- SCAs are in effect for the Lower bay and Lower James River until 10 PM. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of tonight into early Monday afternoon.

- A southerly wind increases late Monday afternoon into Monday night ahead of the next cold front with marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Issued a short-fused SCA for the lower bay/lower James River as easterly winds have been averaging 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt since 530-545PM. Expect the elevated winds to continue through 9-11 PM before veering to the SE and diminishing overnight.

Previous Discussion:

A weak backdoor cold front has pushed S of the Albemarle Sound this aftn. Meanwhile, ~1030mb high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes and is ridging SE toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is generally NE at or below 10kt. Seas are 2-3ft, with waves approximately 1-2ft in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to become E over the next few hours as the high continues to build SE toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 10- 15kt with gusts to ~20kt over the Ches. Bay S of New Point Comfort, the James and York Rivers, and the ocean S of Parramore Is. late this aftn and early this evening. Seas/waves build to ~3ft/2-3ft in addition to the increased wind. Conditions are largely expected to remain below SCA criteria, but an MWS may be needed for a few hours.
The wind becomes ESE 10-15kt later tonight, with seas of 2-3ft and waves in the Ches. Bay ~2ft.

The wind becomes SE Monday morning, and then SSE by Monday aftn as the boundary lifts back N through the region as a warm front. SCA headlines may potentially be needed over the Ches. Bay late Monday aftn into the early overnight hours of Monday night ahead of the next cold front, before the pressure gradient relaxes again Tuesday immediately ahead of the front. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a generally light (10-15kt or less) N to NE wind. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft through the middle of next week (briefly 3-4ft offshore N of Parramore Is. Monday night).
Waves in the Ches. Bay will primarily be 1-2ft tonight through the middle of next week, with the exception of 2-3ft with increased southerly flow late Monday aftn into Monday night. High pressure becomes centered offshore of the northern mid-Atlantic coast late in the week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-638.