Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Moyock, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:55PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 10:07 AM EST (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 655 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through Thursday morning...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 655 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit off the coast Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the west Wednesday through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moyock CDP, NC
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location: 36.5, -76.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kakq.afd.akq.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS61 KAKQ 201156 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

SYNOPSIS High pressure builds in from the west today and will settle across the region tonight into Thursday. A cold front enters the region late Friday into lingers through Saturday before a strong low pressure system pulls the front off the coast by Sunday.

NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...

Latest analysis indicates a broad upper level low centered 00Z 19 models in good agreement that sfc high pressure will be centered over the NE northern mid-Atlantic region. Sfc pressures are rising as high pressure well off to our west slowly builds E. Skies are variably cloudy inland and mostly cloudy over the eastern shore. Some patchy fog low stratus is present across interior VA NE NC but dense fog has not developed. The potent upper level trough will continue to slide farther to the NE today, but there will still be some residual cloud cover through the morning especially over NE sections.

Overall the aftn will be partly to mostly sunny with SCT cumulus (but occasionally BKN into the NE zones) with the cold pool aloft. Highs will range from the mid- upper 50s SW to the lower- mid 50s NE (think MAV MET numbers are slightly high). Mainly clear tonight with lows 30-35F well inland where decoupling arrives earliest to 35-40 F at the coast.

SHORT TERM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...

Latest 00Z 20 models remain in good agreement with the pattern Thu Thu night, but differ somewhat with respect to where the best lift moisture will be located Fri as a weakening cold front approaches from the NW. Dry mainly sunny skies to start Thu AM with sfc high pressure centered along the coastal Plain from VA to SC. Expect an increase in mid high level cloudiness by aftn as the ridge axis aloft shifts off the coast. With fairly shallow mixing, sfc temperatures will not warm much compared to Wed despite 850mb temperatures warming significantly. Expect highs to range from the mid 50s N and along the coast to the upper 50s across interior southern VA NE NC. Milder Thu night as sfc high pressure begins to slide off the Carolina coast and return southerly low level flow develops. Lows will be mainly in the 40s. On Fri, the 00Z 20 GFS has an area of QPF moving into the southern zones rather quickly (by 18Z) while the NAM and ECWMF generally focus the deeper moisture farther N. Will favor the NAM ECWMF for this as the GFS does not make sense given stronger ridging aloft the farther to the S SE. Thus, will continue with mainly dry conditions Fri AM (low chance PoPs mainly confined to the Piedmont). Then, will have aftn PoPs of 30-50% PoPs except only 15-25% over NE NC. A look at Bufkit soundings shows that at least mid high cloud cover will be fairly thick from late morning onward except over the far SE.

This, along with relatively shallow mixing will tend to keep it a little cooler than previous forecast so will have high mostly in the lower 60s, with mid-upper 60s over SE VA NE NC. The front will stall wash out to some extent Fri night as it becomes nearly parallel to the mid level flow and strong sfc low pressure hangs back over the lower MS Valley. Will have ~30% PoPs for showers Fri evening, with some drying N NE of the front after midnight. Mostly cloudy with lows in the 30s N and mainly 40-45F elsewhere.

LONG TERM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...

The weekend begins with a mid level cutoff low over the central US.

Out ahead of this, a surface low is expected to develop in the vicinity of the southern plains and move eastward towards the ohio valley. A warm front will try to cross our region early on the day on Saturday, models differ on the extent the front moves through, with the GFS carrying the front all the way through the area and the ECMWF stalling the front out about halfway across our forecast area.

This will have implications for temps and precip on Saturday. For now kept the N NW half of the area cooler on Saturday with high temps struggling to get out of the 40s while the S SE half will be in the mid to upper 50s. For precip, kept chance pops in early in the day and bring likely pops into much of the area later on Saturday (did keep most of the east near the coast capped at ~50% given some uncertainty as to how quickly the overrunning rain moves in from the W). Latest 00Z 20 EPS GEFS depict highest chance for widespread rainfall to be Sat night so have likely PoPs all zones during this period as the cold front pushes through.

Low pressure drags a cold front through the area by Sunday morning, bringing an end to the rain chances, and high pressure centered over Texas will build in for Sunday. The high will shift east on Monday to the Mississippi valley and then up the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. This will keep things dry both days and a W SW flow will moderate daytime high temps to near seasonal averages.

AVIATION 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY As of 650 AM EST Wednesday...

Skies are now mostly clear for most of the region W of Chesapeake Bay, while remaining partly-mostly cloudy on the eastern shore and near the Bay and to the N of the CWA. Patchy fog and low clouds across interior SE VA NE NC is quickly eroding and should be gone over the next hour. Winds shift to the NW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20kt late this morning through the aftn. With cold pool aloft, expect some redevelopment of the cumulus field, generally SCT coverage this aftn, except potentially BKN from the northern NEck to the eastern shore. Any CIGs will beVFR from 4-6k ft. Diminishing windsVFR mostly clear tonight.

OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions with lighter winds Thu Thu night Fri AM. There will be a chance for brief flight restrictions in showers Fri and flight restrictions are probable Sat aftn Sat night as low pressure moves across the area.

MARINE As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

An upper-level low continues to slowly track northwest across the Mid-Atlantic, while a sfc low pressure system deepens well off the coast between the Eastern Seaboard and Bermuda early this morning. At the same time, a sfc high pressure is building west of the Appalachian Mountains, from the Great Lakes to the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is beginning to tighten the pressure gradient across the region between the sfc low and sfc high pressures. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten throughout the day as the sfc high and sfc low continue to strengthen and therefore, increasing winds out of the northwest across the coastal waters. Winds in the middle Chesapeake Bay are 10-15 kt early this morning, while 5-10 kt for the southern bay and ocean. Winds will increase throughout the day on Wednesday, peaking from this afternoon to early Thursday morning. Winds will be NW 15-20 kt with gust up to 25 kt Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning across the Chesapeake Bay, major tidal rivers, and area sounds. While winds will be NW 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt over the Atlantic Ocean from Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning.

Therefore SCAs have been issued for all of our coastal waters.

Seas are expected to remain in the 3-4 ft range through tonight before building to 4-6 ft by late Wed (highest 20 nm offshore).

Seas fall to 2-4 ft by Thu aftn.

Winds are progged to diminish to 5-10 kt by late Thursday afternoon as the center of the high moves over eastern VA NC. An increasing SW wind of 15-20 kt will develop Friday morning as a weak cold front approaches the area from the northwest. The cold front will cross the area late Fri-Fri night before another (deepening) area of low pressure tracks across the region on Sat before moving offshore Sat night. SCAs appear likely by Sunday morning, as NW winds increase after the low moves offshore.

TIDES COASTAL FLOODING As of 845 PM EST Tuesday...

Coastal Flood Warning in Dorchester was replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory as levels at Bishops Head have fallen below moderate. All advisories will end after this evenings high tide cycle.

Increasing NW winds tonight-Wed should allow tidal anomalies to fall significantly across the upper Ches Bay, largely ending the threat for coastal flooding after this evening's high tide cycle.

AKQ WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES MD... None.

NC... None.

VA... None.

MARINE... Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-656-658.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.

SYNOPSIS... LKB NEAR TERM... LKB SHORT TERM... LKB LONG TERM... CMF LKB AVIATION... LKB MARINE... CP ERI TIDES COASTAL FLOODING...


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 21 mi73 min NW 5.1 G 7 48°F 52°F1016.2 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 29 mi67 min NW 9.9 G 14 49°F 1016.4 hPa (+2.8)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi67 min NW 16 G 18 49°F 1016.3 hPa (+2.7)
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 31 mi37 min 55°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 31 mi67 min NW 12 G 14 46°F 53°F1015.4 hPa (+2.2)
FRFN7 31 mi187 min 3 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 32 mi73 min 50°F1016.5 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 34 mi37 min 59°F4 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 34 mi73 min NW 13 G 14 48°F 1016 hPa
44064 35 mi37 min NNW 16 G 19 48°F 1016.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 35 mi73 min NW 11 G 17 47°F 1016.8 hPa
44087 36 mi37 min 52°F2 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 37 mi37 min 58°F3 ft
CHBV2 37 mi73 min NNW 16 G 18 49°F 1015 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 47 mi67 min NNW 15 G 19
44072 49 mi37 min NE 16 G 18 47°F

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC10 mi72 minNW 67.00 miFair45°F44°F98%1016.6 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA14 mi72 minWNW 810.00 miFair45°F42°F88%1016.6 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC17 mi73 minNW 99.00 miFair48°F42°F80%1016.7 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA24 mi71 minNW 69.00 miFog/Mist48°F43°F83%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONX

Wind History from ONX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4NW3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W5W4CalmCalmW4W5W4W5
1 day agoN8NW6N5NW7N6N3W5W4W5CalmCalmSW3CalmSW4W3SW4W4W4SW3CalmCalmW3W5NW4
2 days agoN16
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Tide / Current Tables for False Cape, Virginia
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False Cape
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:34 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:06 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.53.42.92.21.40.80.50.61.11.82.73.43.93.93.52.821.10.50.20.411.8

Tide / Current Tables for Sandbridge, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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