Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday December 15, 2019 11:05 AM EST (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 10:21AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 151507 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1005 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Broad high pressure will extend across North Carolina today into Monday, with deepening low pressure expected to move north of the area on Tuesday and bring a cold front across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1005 PM Sunday .

13Z surface analysis shows high pressure centered near Jacksonville FL, a lee trough along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, and a diffuse synoptic cold front stretching from central PA to near Memphis to NE TX. Winds are light and SWrly across central NC this morning under WSW flow aloft. This pattern and continued mostly clear skies will allow temps to climb slightly above normal into the mid 50s to around 60.

Clouds will begin to increase across the west tonight, with some stratus possible in the Triad by Monday morning. With light southerly return flow winds, lows will be in the low to mid 40s, coolest northeast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 240 AM Sunday .

The low will take its time moving east, not making its way much farther east than Mississippi by Monday afternoon. Over the last several days, models have continued to show the warm front remaining north of North Carolina on Monday as well, except for a few GFS ensemble members showing rain falling just south of the Virginia- North Carolina border. Have bumped up cloud cover a bit across the region, but still think that this entire period will be dry. Brought highs on Monday down a degree or two considering the increased cloud cover, but with the area still in the warm sector, nearly all locations should rise into the 60s.

Monday night will see high pressure retreat off the coast ahead of a developing mid tropospheric trough over the Ohio Valley. Increasing clouds and strong surface WAA will play havoc with temperatures and some spots could end up flirting with record warm min temperatures early Tuesday morning. Steady or slowly rising temperatures area- wide were already drawn into the digital forecast in this scenario and I see no reason to change that thinking.

The main story with this approaching trough is precip chances, this time around p-type will not be an issue. Taking a look at this morning's 00Z deterministic and probabilistic guidance, timing remains relatively on track showing precip moving into the Triad between 06Z-12Z Tuesday and into the Triangle closer to 12Z. PoPs were adjusted accordingly to match these timing trends.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 341 AM Sunday .

Precip should be ongoing at nearly all sites by Tuesday morning, rapidly ending from west to east around 00Z Tuesday. Not going to introduce thunder at this point but most models agree that there should be about 100-300 J/KG SBCAPE in the warm sector just prior to FROPA. This also lines up well with SPC general thunder mention for Day 3. More concerning is the nearly 40kts of 0-1km shear and 90kts of 0-6km shear, suggesting the potential for weakly rotating showers/storms. Most of the shear is fairly unidirectional in nature but certainly something worth monitoring as we get closer. Precip tapers off as mentioned Tuesday night into Wednesday, with surface high pressure/dry weather building in Wednesday through Friday.

The forecast for next weekend remains uncertain as there have been inconsistencies from run to run of the ECMWF and GFS as well as their respective ensemble counterparts. GFS and GEFS solutions have been depicting a very deep upper trough and associated surface low moving through the Southeast. EC and ECENS have maintained a similar idea but much less intense. Today's 00Z ECMWF is depicting an even weaker upper trough than before, but does continue the idea of weak coastal cyclogenesis off the South Carolina coast. This solution would bring some rain to the area Saturday and Sunday but nothing significant. NBM PoPs during this period are near climo and until a more clear consensus can be reached, sticking with its low impact forecast for next weekend with slight chances of rain and above freezing temperatures seems like the best approach.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 615 AM Sunday .

24 hour TAF period: Although some patchy high clouds are possible during the daytime hours, most of the period should be quiet with little cloud cover and light southwest winds. However, after midnight winds will back to the south and some low clouds could clip the northwestern portions of the forecast area. Confidence was high enough that clouds would reach KINT to include MVFR ceilings late in the TAF period, but only scattered clouds were included at KGSO.

Looking ahead: Flight conditions will enter a period of reduction late Monday through Tuesday assoc with low clouds and rain chances with the next front. Look for improving flight conditions by Tuesday night in the wake of that front. -NP

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Green NEAR TERM . Green/Smith SHORT TERM . Green/Leins LONG TERM . Leins AVIATION . Green/np


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi30 minWSW 810.00 miFair49°F33°F57%1018.6 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi10 minWSW 9 G 1610.00 miFair51°F33°F50%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHNZ

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9SW8SW10
G16
SW7SW7SW6W4W8W8W4W6W5W3SW4SW3SW5SW3SW5SW4SW5SW5SW6W7
1 day agoNE4N4N4N5NE4E4N5E5NE6N4N3N4N4N4N4N5NW3N3CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmSW6
2 days agoE8----E4NE8E5NE4CalmNE3CalmNE3NE4N3N4N5NE3N4N5N5N3N5N3NE7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Sun -- 01:08 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:59 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:58 PM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.200.81.92.52.62.41.91.30.80.30-0.10.10.922.93.12.92.51.81.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
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Sun -- 01:08 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:00 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:11 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.100.81.72.42.62.421.40.80.40-0.10.10.81.82.732.92.51.91.30.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.