Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:01PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 6:10 AM EST (11:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 250932 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 432 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the area this morning will retreat east and offshore, in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will cross the mountains overnight and will stall out across western NC on Thursday. The cold front will crawl slowly eastward through the area late Thursday night through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 400 AM Wednesday .

A closed upper low and associated sfc low will track from the lower/mid MS Valley and into the Ohio Valley by Thursday morning. Surface high pressure and associated cP airmass over the area this morning, will retreat NEWD, in advance of the attendant cold front that will reach the southern Appalachians by Thursday morning. Strengthening SELY return flow in advance of the cold front will lead to significant low-level moistening throughout the day, resulting in the likelihood of one, if not multiple stratus/altostratus layers. These low-level clouds, coupled with the opaque veil of high clouds should limit insolation and hamper afternoon heating, especially across the NW Piedmont INVOF where there is a good chance of some MVFR ceilings and patchy light rain. Thus, expect a fairly sharp, CAD-like NW to SE temperature gradient across the area, with the biggest bust potential over the NW Piedmont. Highs ranging from lower to mid 50s NW Piedmont to mid/upper 60s SE.

While some isolated, light WAA rain/showers will be possible during the afternoon and evening, the better rain chances will hold off until after midnight, when WCB moistening and lift within a 35-40 kt LLJ and upper divergence within the right entrance region of a 80 to 90 kt upper jet streak overspread the area. Highest PoPs and QPF will fall in line with the strongest moisture transport convergence and strongest ascent in place across the northern Piedmont. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder owing to some weak elevated instability. Milder overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s north to upper 50s/near 60 SE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM Wednesday .

The potent mid/upper level shortwave trough will eject NE across the mid-Atlantic region early Thursday and then off the southern New England Coast Thursday evening/night. However, a trailing, secondary upper impulse embedded in the continued SW flow aloft, will not move through the region until late Thursday night/early Friday. This feature will cause the cold front to temporarily stall out across western NC on Thursday, followed by a slow ESEwd crawl late Thursday night/early Friday, with timing highly suspect.

Although the cold front hangs up across western NC, the WCB feed/LLJ will be the primary forcing mechanism and will serve as the effective front. As such, the better rain chances/area of showers will shift ENEWD through the first part of Thanksgiving, with rain chances tapering off from SW to NE thereafter as this feature exits offshore of the coastal Va Tidewater region during late morning/midday. Event total rainfall amounts are expected to be on the light side, ranging between one to two tenths, highest near the VA/NC border.

Central NC will lie firmly in the warm sector Thanksgiving Day. And while models show considerable saturation in the lowest 5 kft, expect we will see some peeks of sun, though brief during the afternoon, especially across the western Piedmont. Highs ranging from mid/upper 60s NW to lower/mid 70s SE.

Depending on the location and timing of the front, stratus and/or fog will be apt to form within the continued moist warm sector. Models also suggest there is a chance for some isolated showers to re-develop across the far SE zones, in repsonse to the trailing upper impulse moving through the region. Lows ranging from upper 40s/near 50 NW to mid 50s SE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 400 AM Wednesday .

. Cold and Wet to End November/Start December .

The extended forecast begins with zonal flow aloft and a stalled occluded front draped across the southern Coastal Plain. A few light showers may develop Friday morning across extreme southeast portions of the forecast area, then conditions dry out for all of central NC by the afternoon and continue through Saturday. Highs will range from 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal normals to end the holiday workweek. A weak and dry shortwave will swing from the OH Valley across central NC on Saturday, lowering heights aloft. This, and northwesterly surface flow will lower highs closer to normal for late November, ranging from the low 60s in the NW to the mid 60s SE. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid to upper 40s, then drop to the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday morning behind the trough.

Cloud cover will begin to increase Sunday as the next system approaches the region. A closed upper-level low will move northeast from the Southern Plains on Sunday to the TN Valley on Monday and get absorbed into a Canadian trough developing south into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. A deep, anomalously cold upper-level closed low will then develop across the OH Valley early Tuesday, with an associated trough moving across central NC later in the day. At the surface, a low will develop from the northern Gulf into LA Sunday and move NE near central NC on Monday, with a cold front moving across the region on Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient behind the front will create the possibility of westerly wind gusts around 20 mph throughout the day. Rain may begin as early as Sunday afternoon across the southern Piedmont, then spread northeast across the region Sunday night through Monday night with the bulk of the precipitation Monday morning and afternoon. PWs around 1.50 inches and good dynamics aloft will support heavy rain on Monday, with possible accumulations of a few inches across the region.

Highs will be in the mid-50s NE to the mid 60s SE Sunday and Monday, then plummet behind the front on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 40s. Breezy winds and highs in the 40s Tuesday will create wind chills in the 30s for many areas Tuesday afternoon. Lows in the 40s Monday morning will lower into the 30s on Tuesday. Some guidance is pointing at the possibility of frozen precipitation across the Triad Tuesday morning, however a large temperature spread in the ensemble members and the majority of the saturated layer in the lower-levels being above -10 C greatly reduces our confidence in such outcome. It will be something to keep an eye on, but for now we're maintaining liquid precipitation in the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 120 AM Wednesday .

24 Hour TAF Period: Broken/overcast cirrus clouds will continue to stream east across the area through the period. Strengthening southerly return flow between in advance of a slow moving cold front approaching from the west will result in lowering ceilings throughout the day. At KINT and KGSO, ceilings will likely fluctuate between low-end VFR and MVFR, especially if any patchy light rain impacts the TAF sites. Further east, ceilings will lower, but generally remain VFR through 00z Thu.

Rain chances will increase and spread east across the area between 00z to 12z THU. Expect the highest rain chances and greatest aviation impacts at KINT and KGSO, with ceilings lowering to IFR to LIFR in the west and MVFR in the east. A period of LLWS is likely as well, as 35 to 40kt LLJ traverses the area.

Outlook: The cold front is expected to briefly stall across western NC on Thursday and will not advance east through the area until late Friday. Rain chances should taper off from to east throughout the day on Thursday. However, periods of sub-VFR conditions will be apt to persist through Friday morning. After a brief return to VFR by Fri afternoon, a wet frontal system and widespread sub-VFR conditions will affect the Carolinas Sun-Mon.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . CBL NEAR TERM . CBL SHORT TERM . CBL LONG TERM . JJT AVIATION . CBL/MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair35°F33°F93%1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHNZ

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalm--NW14
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1 day agoNE4Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmE3E3SE6
2 days ago--SW10SW7SW7SW3S4SW4SW4SW6SW4SW5SW5SW6SW5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW5CalmCalmN4N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Wed -- 12:05 AM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.62.21.61.10.70.30.10.311.82.42.82.82.521.410.60.30.20.61.32

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
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Wed -- 12:18 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:45 PM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:42 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.62.21.61.10.60.30.10.30.91.62.22.72.82.521.510.50.20.10.51.21.9

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.