Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:18 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 282000 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 400 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure should remain off the southeast United States through mid-week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 210 PM Sunday...

High pressure is currently centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Although the radar remains clear, widespread diurnal cumulus developed during the late morning and seems to have reached a steady state early this afternoon. Cloud cover decreases rapidly north of I-40/85 from the Triad to the Triangle and along US-64 east of Raleigh. The cloud cover should persist through much of the afternoon before dissipating. Despite the cloud cover, southwesterly flow should allow most locations to top out around 80 degrees.
Southwest wind around 5 mph will continue overnight along with minimal cloud cover.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 PM Sunday...

A closed mid-level low over the Northern Plains lifting north into Ontario combined with a low-amplitude speed max racing through the Southern Plains sliding into the TN Valley will slightly suppress mid level heights (15 to 25m H5 height falls) and shift the low- level anticyclone centered over central NC towards the coast through Mon night. Drier air through the deepening mixed layer Mon morning/afternoon will result in less cumulus development and mostly sunny conditions through the daytime hours after some patchy fog disperses early Mon morning (mainly over the southern Piedmont, Sandhills into the southern Coastal Plain of NC). Mostly clear skies and low-level thicknesses increasing by around 5m will support another 3-4 degrees of warming compared to Sun.

Steady height falls Mon night into early Tues morning within the southwesterly flow aloft and convective debris from upstream will increase wisps of cloud cover, but it should remain thin enough to not impact overnight temperatures. Outside of isolated locations of patchy fog and/or low clouds south of US-64 early Tues morning, continued stirring overnight with the surface high displaced farther east into the Atlantic will likely prevent areas of fog for most locations. Lows will fall into the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM Sunday...

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as the mid/upper ridge that had been in place over the area gets replaced by a shortwave trough moving across the TN Valley on Tuesday. This system still looks to reach central NC by Tuesday evening/night. As it interacts with a lee surface trough and warm/moist air mass (highs in the lower-to-mid- 80s and dew points in the mid-50s to lower-60s), isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible with the best chance in the western Piedmont. However, coverage doesn't look great given a lack of any synoptic fronts and the timing of the shortwave passage being past peak diurnal heating. A few showers could linger into the overnight hours with lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

Some isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection may continue on Wednesday afternoon and evening, this time more focused across southern and eastern areas as the mid-level shortwave moves to the coast and interacts with the surface trough. Temperatures should be similar to Tuesday, still 5-10 degrees above normal. Thursday will then feature very little if any precipitation chances as a mid/upper ridge builds in from the Gulf of Mexico and we briefly get surface high pressure building from New England down the mid-Atlantic coast.
However, this high should have minimal impact on temperatures with Thursday's highs still expected to reach the lower-to-mid-80s.

The next mid/upper trough and associated surface low will move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday and Saturday, dragging a cold front that again doesn't look to make it to central NC. However, another weak shortwave may interact with a renewed lee trough and moist/unstable airmass in place to result in increased convective chances on Saturday and Sunday, when POPs go back up to chance areawide. Temperatures will exhibit little change and remain warm from Friday into the weekend, with highs in the lower-to-mid- 80s and lows in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 105 PM Sunday...

TAF period: There is widespread coverage of diurnal cumulus today, and cannot rule out the potential for an isolated MVFR ceiling considering cloud bases are generally between 3000 and 5000 ft.
Clouds should scatter out around sunset. Although FAY went LIFR this morning with abundant low-level moisture, do not see enough consistency from model soundings to include any restrictions in the upcoming forecast. Similarly, while RWI does show some minimal low level moisture, also do not have confidence to include any restrictions there. Winds should remain consistently out of the southwest through the period, with daytime wind around 8-10 kt plus an occasional gust and overnight wind around 5 kt.

Outlook: There is a chance of restrictions with showers at INT/GSO on Tuesday and RDU/FAY/RWI on Wednesday. Otherwise the extended period appears to be VFR with dry conditions.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Petersburg
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Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Chester
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Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:31 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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