Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 2:33 AM EDT (06:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 11:56PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 270545 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A surface low and upper level disturbance to our south will lift northward and across our area today. A deep flow from the south and southwest will produce daily showers and storms Thursday through Saturday, ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front will cross the area Saturday into Saturday night, with cooler and drier air to follow for Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 945 PM Tuesday .

Little change to the overall forecast for tonight. Aside from some lingering very light rain, the rest of the evening should be dry as surface high pressure continues ridging into the area from the northeast. Southeasterly flow aloft advecting moist air into the area above the surface high could produce some additional light rain, but more likely will result in low ceilings overspreading the area from the south this evening/tonight. The low along the eastern FL coast as of 00Z is expected to migrate north along the Southeast US coast overnight. As the low approaches, expect rain to move into NC from the southeast around daybreak Wednesday. While much of the area may stay dry through sunrise, will continue to forecast slight chance to chance of rain across the south by daybreak. Lows tonight still expected to bottom out in the low to mid 60s, lowest in the northeast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 315 PM Tuesday .

. Flash Flood Watch likely needed Wednesday and Wednesday night .

Even at a short forecast interval, there is still some model disagreement simply in regards to the low track. While the GFS and NAM both show the low coming onshore in South Carolina and moving north-northwest, the 12Z ECMWF takes a left turn and moves the low over Atlanta. The latest run of the European is an outlier compared to other model guidance, and will stick with the expected low track over the Carolinas. Models are showing that the highest QPF will be over the western half of the forecast area - the same areas that were hit hard last week with rain. With the soil likely still saturated, it shouldn't take too much additional rain for flooding to become a problem once again. A flash flood watch will likely be needed across western counties, but will not pull the trigger quite yet until models come into slightly better consensus on the exact track of the highest QPF. Heaviest rainfall is likely to occur Wednesday afternoon. While a slight chance of thunder will be retained in the forecast, instability looks quite limited. Some locations in the Triad might not make it out of the 60s on Wednesday, while east of I-95 one or two places might manage to reach 80 degrees.

While the forecast continues to call for likely pops everywhere Wednesday evening and most locations after midnight, think that this may be a little overdone, and that rainfall may move north a little more quickly than is currently in the forecast. Lows will only fall into the 60s again.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 245 PM Tuesday .

Thu/Thu night: The surface low will likely have pushed well to our N by sunrise Thu, although models indicate a lingering diffuse boundary bisecting the Piedmont Thu morning, and this could act as a focus for convection. PW appears to back off a bit from the Wed readings but still well above normal (which is slightly over 1" at GSO), around 1.75". Subtle mid level perturbations and passing upper divergence maxima will add to any thermodynamically induced ascent (with at least moderate MLCAPE indicated, albeit with modest deep layer shear), supporting high pops. Will focus likely pops in the E starting around lunchtime, then translate them WNW into the Piedmont as the W Atlantic ridge center drifts toward the SW, nudging the moist conveyor belt westward. Will decrease pops in the evening and overnight with loss of heating, but will need to retain a shower mention given the warm moist column and surface dewpoints in the lower 70s. Expect a continued lower-than-usual diurnal temp range due to the humidity and clouds, with highs near normal but lows well above normal.

Fri/Sat: Deep S/SW flow persists Fri into Sat with a steady tap of Gulf moisture, worthy of following persistence with an above-climo chance of primarily but not exclusively afternoon/evening showers/storms. The weakening mid level low that is over AR Thu fills further and shears over TN/KY Fri/Fri night, as it waits to get picked up by the digging northern stream trough over Ont/Que/St Lawrence. Model solutions diverge a bit for Sat, with the 00z ECMWF almost completely losing the southern stream shortwave trough, absorbing it entirely into the longwave trough, and thus veering cloud layer winds to a more westerly and drying direction over the Piedmont, whereas the GFS/Canadian hang a piece of this dying wave back to our W, keeping high PWs over all of central NC. The slightly less phased solution seems most reasonable, favoring retaining the high pops areawide through Sat. Expect continued near normal highs both days with lows well above normal.

Sun-Tue: The cold front is expected to track SE through central NC Sat night, with expansive Canadian high pressure to follow, building in from the NW and N as mid level troughing amplifies over the Eastern Seaboard. Will have pops early Sun in the SE, ending by midday with dry weather through Tue. The longwave trough shifts offshore Tue, and we should see some air mass modification with onset of return flow at the surface. The column is likely to remain dry, however the 00z ECMWF does suggest that upstream MCS activity over the Upper Midwest may induce an MCV and track it SE through the Mid Atlantic region Tue. Will keep an eye out for this possibility but will stay dry for now. Forecast thicknesses support temps at least two categories below normal. -GIH

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 135 AM Wednesday .

24 hour TAF period: Cigs are expected to fall into the MVFR/IFR range this morning ahead of a tropical like area of lower pressure that will lift northward and into our area later today. This will result in heavy rain spreading into the area this morning int the afternoon resulting in a continuing of adverse aviation conditions. The main area of showers and isolated storms will begin to lift off to the north late this evening. However, isolated to scattered showers will likely remain possible (along with a few isolate thunderstorms). In addition we may some wind gusts of around 20-25 mph develop late this morning into the afternoon, with the potential for some stronger gusts briefly depending on the actual track of the aforementioned surface low.

Outlook: An unsettled period with prolonged intervals of adverse aviation conditions is expected into the weekend as deep moisture continues to transport northward and into our area through Thursday and then as a cold front approaches on Friday and moves across the area on Saturday/Saturday night. A considerable amount of clouds and periods of ceilings restrictions along with periods of visibility restrictions in showers and storms, especially into Thursday and again Friday into Saturday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . BSD/Hartfield NEAR TERM . KC SHORT TERM . Green LONG TERM . Hartfield AVIATION . BSD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi38 minENE 37.00 miOvercast62°F62°F99%1021 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi38 minN 02.00 miOvercast64°F61°F93%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHNZ

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4E4E6NE5NE6NE6NE7E10NE7NE3E6E8E4E6E7E5CalmCalmE4CalmE3
1 day agoNE5E4CalmNE3NE4E7E6NE3CalmE3N4NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E4E4E7E8NE7E7E10E8E8NE9E8NE7E7E8E7NE5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:35 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.90.70.611.82.83.43.53.22.72.11.51.10.70.50.50.91.82.6332.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
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Wed -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:50 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:38 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.50.50.81.52.53.23.43.22.72.11.510.60.40.40.71.62.42.92.92.72.2

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.