Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middleburg, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:01PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:30 PM EDT (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middleburg, NC
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location: 36.52, -78.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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Fxus62 krah 200108
afdrah
area forecast discussion
national weather service raleigh nc
908 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
An area of high pressure positioned offshore will maintain a warm
and humid air mass over central nc through Thursday while a weak
surface trough remains stationary over the western piedmont. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late in the work week.

Near term through tonight
As of 900 pm Monday...

convection has largely dissipated across the area this evening with
the loss of daytime heating and a majority of the area being worked
over by convection from earlier this afternoon evening. However, a
few rather localized areas will remain susceptible to showers and
storms this evening, possibly lingering into early Tuesday morning.

One such area is across the far northern piedmont northern coastal
plain, where and outflow boundary from convection over south central
va is currently move south southwestward into our cwa. Another area
is across portions of the southwest piedmont and far southern
sandhills where a few small areas of storms may develop or move into
the area that have yet to see convection today. MLCAPE still remains
rather high, ranging from around 1000 to 2000 j kg, if the
developing CIN is able to be overcome. Thus, for now, will continue
chance pops across the aforementioned areas for the next several
hours, with mostly dry conditions otherwise expected for the rest of
the night elsewhere. Any lingering severe threat should be minimal
though. We may see some patchy fog and or low stratus again Tuesday
morning, thanks to the convection from today. Temps will likely not
fall much from current values, generally falling to around 70 lower
70s north northwest to the lower to mid 70s se.

Short term Tuesday and Tuesday night
As of 450 pm Monday...

after fog and low stratus burns off attention will turn to the
piedmont trough and this is expected to be where convection will be
most prevalent by Tuesday afternoon. Therefore expect higher chances
for thunder and isolated severe thunderstorms west of us highway 1.

In addition to instability, shear will be better on Tuesday with 20-
25 kts of bulk shear expected. In addition, heavy rain may cause
localized flooding. Temperatures once again will be in the 90s with
heat index values near 100 degrees. Lows in the lower 70s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 250 pm Monday...

primarily weak flow aloft will transition to more zonal flow in
nature by midweek, with a series of strong upper-level disturbances
expected to help deepen the upper-level trough near the can us
border. At the surface, bermuda high pressure will maintain
southerly flow across central nc ahead of a cold front, likely to
slide from NW to SE early in the weekend. Behind the front, a cooler
and drier airmass is expected to setup shop by early next week.

Heat and humidity will gradually take a backseat to shower and
thunderstorm chances coverage by the end of the work-week as weak
waa continues ahead of the cold front. Prior to the fronts arrival,
the leeside pre-frontal trough should play host to increasing
thunderstorm coverage each afternoon and evening, with some periodic
enhancement possible thanks to weak sub-tropical impulses continuing
to linger around the western periphery of the subtropical high. Have
trended pops up each day during at least the diurnally favored time
frame, peaking Friday and Saturday in response to best FROPA forcing
arrival across the area. Albeit a bit against climatology, models
continue to hint at a complete FROPA thanks to a secondary strong
mid level shortwave push from out of the ohio valley. In response,
have trended temperatures and pops down a bit on the backside of the
boundary, likely to continue into early next week. Afternoon high
temperatures should remain near to slightly below normal from Friday
to Monday thanks initially to increased and widespread mid to upper-
level cloud cover, followed by cooler and drier high pressure along
with northeasterly surface flow remaining dominant behind the
frontal boundary. Overnight lows will settle into the middle to
upper-60s during the same time frame.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 740 pm Monday...

24 hour TAF period: lingering thunderstorm activity in the triad will
result in some adverse aviation conditions for the next few hours,
however terminals elsewhere should beVFR. Given the spatial extent
of the rainfall this afternoon there will be a good chance of some
reduced visbys and CIGS in the 10-13z time frame Tuesday morning,
potentially lower than what is currently shown in the TAF as
confidence is low. Otherwise,VFR conditions with light and variable
winds will prevail through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible again Tuesday aft eve, resulting in the usual
reduced aviation conditions where they occur. -kc
looking ahead: more unsettled weather for the long term as a wave
moves up from the gulf of mexico bringing more moisture to the area
and then a frontal system moves in from the northwest late in the
week. This will keep chances high for periods of adverse aviation
conditions across the area. -ellis

Equipment
Gso upper air flights (both 12z and 00z) have been scheduled through
12z Friday, however a developing equipment issue will result in a
lapse in flights through at least Wednesday morning.

Rah watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Wss
near term... Bsd
short term... Ellis
long term... Jjm
aviation... Kc ellis
equipment... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 95 mi25 min 83°F 86°F1017.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC15 mi96 minN 010.00 miFair73°F67°F81%1019.3 hPa
South Hill, Mecklenburg-Brunswick Regional Airport, VA19 mi96 minS 35.00 miFair74°F71°F90%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHNZ

Wind History from HNZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3SW3S3SW3----SW5SW5SW5SW7SW6SW5S3SW4SW3SW7N5SE8S8S6SW10
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1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmW3SW6SW5S4S4CalmCalmS3
2 days ago--S5S4CalmCalmSW5--SW4S5SW3SW4SW3CalmS5SW5S4SE6SE5N9
G21
SW3SE6CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Mon -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.60.81.52.433.23.12.72.11.50.90.60.40.51.12.12.93.23.22.92.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
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Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.50.61.32.22.83.132.72.11.40.90.50.30.411.92.73.13.12.92.31.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.