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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 818 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves around 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..E winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 0 to 1 ft. SWell W 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 0 to 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft and W 2 to 4 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 818 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
quiet pattern over the next several days with high pressure dominating. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the great basin. Slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. NEw storm system approaches next weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 110522 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 922 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1140 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

Quiet weather this week with mild days and cool nights. A pattern change takes hold for next weekend into early next week with a likely return to wet and unsettled conditions.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Filtered sunshine across the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon. A pleasant afternoon with temps in the upper 50s to lows 70s.

After several nights of cold weather prompting Frost/Freeze headlines temperatures tonight will be warmer thanks to the cloud cover and approaching surface front from the NW. That being said, interior locations will still be chilly and in the mid to upper 30s.

A weak cold front off the OR coast will continue to track southward over the next 24 hour. This front will be weakening and ultimately wash out over the Bay Area and coastal waters. As this happens a few showers will be possible over the coastal waters Monday with some patchy drizzle along the immediate coast. While land areas look mostly dry, the front will bring some clouds and cooler conditions on Monday.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

For the upcoming work week - looks relatively quiet with mild and dry conditions. An upper level shortwave trough deepens into an upper low over NV and AZ Monday night through Tuesday. This low will result in a period of offshore flow midweek. Winds will be locally breezy over the North and East Bay Mts. The offshore flow will keep mild and dry conditions in place. As the low moves farther east midweek high pressure builds over CA. This building ridge will keep the warming trend in place. In fact, by Thursday and Friday well above normal temperatures will develop around the region. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index gives confidence in this occurring and also highlights that it's unusual for this time of year. Highs will generally be in the 60s to mid 70s Thu/Fri. San Jose will be near record values for Friday.

A notable pattern shift in the weather is still expected next weekend. As noted before, both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to advertise a robust jet moving across the Pacific. This upper level jet will bring a more active period to the West Coast, including CA this time. Current forecast brings rain back tot he region as early as Saturday. Additionally, latest Atmospheric River guidance gives about a 40-60% chance for an AR to reach CA late next weekend into the following. Exact details like: timing, amounts, intensity, will be fine tuned over the upcoming week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 922 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Currently seeing VFR at all terminals. Most terminals will retain this status through a majority of the TAF period with the possibility of MVFR to IFR ceilings coming in at the end of the 24- hour TAF period at 06Z Tuesday. Confidence is not yet high enough to include definitive ceilings in any TAFs. There are still signals for STS to see something similar to what they saw last night in terms of low fog and low visibility; however, the passage of high clouds from a shortwave may hinder that opportunity, thus not giving high enough confidence to include in the TAF.

Vicinity of SFO... Currently VFR with calm winds and high clouds.
VFR will persist through most of the TAF period with chances for an MVFR ceiling in the 08Z-18Z Tuesday time range. Winds will remain breezy and onshore throughout the TAF period with northwesterly winds giving way to westerly winds by 22Z tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both MRY and SNS. Both terminals have a chance of ceilings at the end of the TAF period at 06Z Tuesday, IFR for MRY and MVFR for SNS; however, confidence is not yet high enough to include in the TAFs definitively. Winds will turn offshore and remain light overnight before returning to breezy onshore flow tomorrow.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 922 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

Quiet pattern over the next several days with high pressure dominating. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the Great Basin. Slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. New storm system approaches next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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Monterey
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Sun -- 01:19 AM PST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM PST     5.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:03 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 PM PST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM PST     3.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California, Tide feet

Elkhorn
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Sun -- 01:20 AM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:10 AM PST     5.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:21 PM PST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:01 PM PST     3.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Elkhorn, California, Tide feet

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