Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gonzales, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:20PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 12:13 PM PST (20:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 2:36PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 819 Am Pst Tue Jan 21 2020
Rest of today..SE winds up to 10 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed night..E winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds and W up to 2 ft at 21 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft and nw 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..SW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft. A chance of rain. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 819 Am Pst Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Expect moderate to locally breezy southerly winds through this morning as a cold front approaches and moves through the waters during the remainder of the day. A longer period northwest swell will build today before peaking midweek generating hazardous seas conditions for smaller vessels. Another long period northwest swell will then arrive later this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gonzales, CA
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location: 36.54, -121.46     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 211748 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 948 AM PST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Rain is forecast to spread from north to south across our area today as a weak weather system moves into northern California. Rainfall amounts will be light to locally moderate, with no significant weather impacts expected. Mostly dry and warmer conditions are then expected for the remainder of the work week, with rain likely to return over the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION. as of 8:33 AM PST Tuesday . Radar reflectivity indicates some light rain this morning impacting parts of the North Bay, the San Francisco Peninsula, and the East Bay. Stations in the North Bay have registered anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch up to several tenths through 8 am PST. Periods of light and perhaps briefly moderate rain will continue off/on through the day, spreading from north to south as the day progresses. Main impacts will be the wet roadways during the commuting hours. Total rain amounts will be generally between 0.25 and 0.50 inches on average with higher amounts in the North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains and lower amounts for locations south of Santa Cruz as well as in the rain-shadowed Santa Clara Valley.

No major changes have been made to the short-term grids. For additional forecast details, please refer to the previous forecast discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION. As of 3:00 AM PST Tuesday . Primary short-term forecast concerns are potential impacts from the incoming weather system. Given that precipitation will be mostly light and winds won't be a significant factor, the primary impacts will be wet roadways during the morning and afternoon/evening commutes. Current radar shows light rain just now beginning to move onshore in Sonoma County. This initial rainfall is associated with warm advection out ahead of the primary front that is still a ways offshore. Based on the latest HRRR and NAM, light rain will remain confined to the North Bay through the morning commute, and roads should remain dry from San Francisco southward through at least mid morning.

The primary frontal rain band is expected to arrive in the North Bay by mid morning, causing rain rates to increase somewhat. Rain will then spread south through most of the rest of the SF Bay Area during the late morning and afternoon hours as the front sags south. Light rain will finally reach the Monterey Bay Area by early evening. Areas that will most likely experience wet roadways during the afternoon/evening commute are the central and southern SF Bay Area as well as locations near Monterey Bay.

The NAM indicates that a couple of weak waves will develop offshore along the frontal boundary by late afternoon and early evening. This will result in the frontal boundary stalling across the South Bay and Monterey Bay Area from late afternoon through much of the overnight hours, and perhaps even until a few hours after sunrise Wednesday. However, the front is forecast to gradually dissipate overnight and so rain will mostly end by daybreak Wednesday.

Rain totals through tonight are forecast to be a half inch or less in most areas. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains could see locally up to an inch of rain.

Dry conditions are forecast from Wednesday through Friday as upper level ridging over California deflects incoming Pacific systems to our north. The second half of the work week will also feature warming temperatures as H5 heights increase to 576 dm. High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 60s by Thursday and Friday. However, if persistent low clouds and fog develop around the Delta and locally into the North and East Bay Valleys, similar to what occurred over this past weekend, temperatures in those areas would remain in the 50s.

The consensus of longer range deterministic models, as well as model ensemble means, is for the next system to bring rain to the northern portion of our forecast area on Saturday and then south through the rest of our area by Sunday. This weekend system looks slightly stronger and wetter than today's system, but will not likely to have significant impacts. Dry weather is then expected to return by early next week.

AVIATION. as of 9:48 AM PST Tuesday . For 18z TAFs. A weak frontal boundary slipping through the area today will bring a mix of low cigs and/or vsby to area terminals during passage, along with some light rain. Current satellite imagery is showing widespread overcast conditions throughout the Bay Area and increasing clouds for the Monterey terminals. STS is already reporting 2sm with cigs down to 600 feet. Winds ahead of the front will likely have some light to moderate wind shear, as the surface winds will generally be out of the south while winds up about 2000 feet will be from the southwest and gusting into the mid 30 knot range. Therefore, wind shear remains in the tafs for STS, OAK, and SFO.

As this frontal boundary slips out of the area, high pressure will be building quickly in its wake. This could trap some of the low level moisture that the front is leaving behind which could yield some low vsby issues at many of the Bay Area terminals overnight. The main culprit will be STS. Otherwise clouds will be clearing. This really boils down to a timing issue as to when the ridge takes hold behind the front. Most tafs do show some kind of reduction in vsby and it may need to be drop even further in later issuance's.

Vicinity of KSFO . MVFR is expected to remain through the day with a possible brief drop to IFR as the front passes between about 02Z-06Z. Confidence is low with any drop to IFR (no matter how brief) and is not reflected in the taf at this time. This will need to be monitored to see if the front comes in any stronger to SFO than forecast. At this time, it is expected to break up to a degree over the coastal range. Regardless, look for some small drops in vsby and cigs during the core of frontal passage. Winds will come around from the south to a more north to northeasterly direction behind the front and are forecast to be light. This may cause some radiational fog to develop. As it stands right now, but post sunrise on Wednesday conditions look to be improving significantly.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . VFR-MVFR. Light SE winds this morning. Showers to arrive in the early evening with MVFR cigs. Only a slight drop in vsby is expected as showers limp through the area. Otherwise, look for VFR to prevail again by this time on Wednesday.

MARINE. as of 09:31 AM PST Tuesday . Expect moderate to locally breezy southerly winds through this morning as a cold front approaches and moves through the waters during the remainder of the day. A longer period northwest swell will build today before peaking midweek generating hazardous seas conditions for smaller vessels. Another long period northwest swell will then arrive later this week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm



PUBLIC FORECAST: Rowe/Dykema AVIATION: BFG/Rowe MARINE: RGass

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEYC1 23 mi98 min 55°F1021.6 hPa
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 24 mi44 min 55°F4 ft
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 24 mi89 min NNE 4.1 56°F 1024 hPa49°F
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 25 mi52 min Calm G 0 56°F 1022.7 hPa (+1.1)48°F
46092 - MBM1 33 mi57 min S 7.8 55°F 55°F1021.9 hPa (+1.6)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 36 mi44 min 55°F11 ft
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 49 mi44 min 55°F10 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA11 mi81 minSE 1010.00 miFair54°F46°F77%1021.7 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA20 mi20 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast58°F46°F67%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNS

Wind History from SNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5N5SE11SE4NE4CalmCalmE5NE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE5S4SE8SW4Calm--SE10S4
1 day agoE13E7E8SE9SE9SE8SE6Calm4S3NE5S5SE9SE8S7CalmNE6S3E8CalmCalm--SE10Calm
2 days agoE3E4E6--E6E7E5CalmSE7SE10SE14SE17
G23
SE18SE20E12E11E13E16SE14E13E14E12E12SE14

Tide / Current Tables for Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California
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Monterey
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Tue -- 12:51 AM PST     2.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM PST     6.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:37 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:47 PM PST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM PST     3.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.62.83.44.25.15.86.165.34.22.81.40.2-0.5-0.7-0.30.51.52.63.33.83.83.5

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn, California
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Elkhorn
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:57 AM PST     2.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM PST     6.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:36 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:56 PM PST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM PST     3.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.32.52.93.64.55.35.965.64.63.21.70.3-0.5-0.8-0.50.21.22.233.53.53.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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