Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clarksville, VA

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 12:11 PM EST (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clarksville, VA
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location: 36.59, -78.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 101544 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1044 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks into eastern Canada today with the trailing cold front crossing the local area this evening. High pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Friday before approaching the area this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1040 AM EST Tuesday .

Late morning upper air analysis shows broad upper troughing over the Plains/Midwest, with ridging well off the SE CONUS coast. At the surface, strong low pressure was over Quebec, with ~1029 mb high pressure over the nrn Plains. A strong (trailing) cold front was draped from Quebec SSW to the ern Gulf Coast. Across our local area, the flow was out of the SW at the surface and aloft. There are a few pre-frontal showers over north/west zones, but it is mainly dry elsewhere. Skies are BKN-OVC across the Piedmont, with partly-mostly cloudy skies over the SE half of the CWA. It has already warmed to near 70F across SE VA/NE NC, with 60s from central VA to the Lower MD Ern Shore. Temperatures are still in the upper 50s across the Piedmont.

As the front approaches the region this aftn . the coverage of showers will increase (some) from W to E. Have PoPs ramping up to 60% by the mid-late aftn in most areas (except for far SE VA/NE NC . where PoPs increase to 30-50% by 21z). Consensus of near-term/hi-res guidance has the front positioned from central NC to SE VA by early evening. Not everyone will see rain this aftn, but QPFs (through 00z) will average 0.10" or less. Highs range from near 60F near LKU to the upper 70s at ECG. Most record highs today are safe, except for ECG. See Climate section below.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Tuesday .

The cold front pushes east across the area late aftrn/erly eve. Data continue to show strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis through the night as the mid-level trough axis remains to our W. Pcpn type becomes stratiformed in nature with near 100 PoP for a decent soaking of rain (QPF 1/3 to 1/2 inch).

As the night wears on, thicknesses crash along with a quick temp drop. With pcpn continuing past 12Z, expect the rain to become mixed with wet snow across the nrn third of the fa aftr 09Z. Once again, this to be an event much like the mid Nov wet snow where pcpn intensity will determine whether the pcpn can change over to all wet snow long enuf to drop the temp (33-34 degrees) for a light accum to occur. Believe this to be the case across nwrn most zones where accumls of arnd one half inch will be noted. Expect a rain/wet snow mix as far south as a Cumberland-RIC-XSA-SBY line. Little to no accumls expected thru the Wed morning commute here as sfc/wet bulb temps remain above 32. All rain across the south with lows in the upr 30s-lwr 40s.

Decent lift conts Wed morning before quickly shutting off after 18Z as drier air to the west pushes the pcpn offshore. Kept likely-cat PoPs thru 15Z with a mix of rain/wet snow across the nrn most zones. Rain south. Expect the pcpn to go back to a cold rain by late morn as intensity becomes lighter and temps slowly inch up. Pcpn ends and pushes offshore after 18Z. Dcrg aftrn clouds across the west. Not much rise in temps given the clouds and CAA. Highs Wed low-mid 40s.

A 1040 mb high tracks across Ohio Wed nite / PA Thurs to a psn near BOX by 00Z Fri. Mstly clr Wed nite with a secondary CAA surge noted. Lows in the 20s to lwr 30s se. Sunny/cold Thurs. Went below guid for high temps. Highs upr 30s-lwr 40s except mid 40s sern coastal areas.

Models show the high is slower to push east Thurs nite. This in turn slows the advancing moisture from the dvlpng systm to the south. Thus, will indicate increasing clouds by kept it dry thru 12Z Fri (per latest GFS/ECMWF solns). Lows may occur early then level off or rise a bit as the clouds come in. Lows upr 20s nw-lwr 40s se.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Tuesday .

The high is slow to depart Fri while a significant srn stream systm is progged to dvlp along the Gulf Coast states before lifting ne along the ern seaboard over the weekend. The 00Z GFS conts to be the faster model in bringing overrunning pcpn across the wrn zones Fri morning, while the 00Z ECMWF holds off any pcpn until after 18Z. Given these changes, made some adjustments to Fri fcst. Mainly to slow the onset of pcpn down by svrl hrs. This allows temps to rise above 32 in most areas for mainly a cold rain. However, did keep a few hr prd of fz rain at the onset (per thicknesses) across Louisa/Fluvanna county. Otw, rain overspreads the local area Fri. Highs low-mid 40s across the Piedmont (insitu-wedge) to 55-60 along the coast.

The wet period extends into the weekend with the GFS and ECMWF in better agreement. The wettest period look to be from late Friday into early Saturday. Will increase PoPs from the south/southwest during the day on Friday but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall Friday night into early Saturday as low pressure lifts northward across the region with the models in agreement. Conditions Sunday look mostly dry with some cloud cover. High temps on Friday range from the low 40s NW, close to 50 degrees for the Richmond metro, and low to mid 50s for areas east of I-95. Not looking particularly cold behind the weekend system either, highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 620 AM EST Tuesday .

The local area in btwn systems attm as the first wave of low pressure moves ne of the area and ahead of the moisture assctd with the apprchg cold front progged to cross the area this eve.

SCT-BKN SC btwn 2-3K FT this morning along the coast with OVC SC at RIC.SW winds are gustinf to btwn 15-25 kts. Expect the shwrs ahead of the apprchg cold front to cross the area after 18Z with more widespread stratiformed rain expected behing the fropa after 00Z. Thus, the forecast will MVFR lwrg to IFR CIGS/VSBYS after 00Z along in rain/fog along with a wind shift to the north.

OUTLOOK . There is a chc that pcpn changes over to /PLSN Wed AM before ending at SBY, with a slightly lesser chc of PL/SN at RIC. Not expecting much in the way of impacts from wintry pcpn. Pcpn should stay in the form of RA at the sern terminals.

High pressure builds into the area Wed/Thurs, allowing VFR/dry conditions to return. Another area of low pressure brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night.

MARINE. As of 330 AM EST Tuesday .

In the near term, existing Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James, and Currituck Sound that originally went into this afternoon have been cancelled. South to southwest flow over cooler waters (Bay temps in the upper 40s) has made it difficult for many 20 knot+ gusts to mix down to the surface this morning. Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20 knots at the typical elevated locations, but do not expect this to be widespread/frequent enough to continue the existing SCAs. SCAs for the coastal waters have been maintained due to seas at or above 5 feet.

SW winds continue through the day today, generally in the 10 to 20 knot range. A cold front crosses the waters beginning later this afternoon, which will turn winds to the NW and then N, and wind speeds increase into the 15 to 25 knot range with gusts to as high as 30 knots. These elevated winds will continue into Wednesday afternoon for portions of the waters as much cooler air filters into the region. As a result, SCAs are now in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James, and Currituck Sound beginning this evening and continuing into Wednesday. Seas remain elevated through this period, at or above 5 feet, thus SCAs for the coastal waters have also been extended to take this in account.

Winds relax Wednesday afternoon, before a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a strong area of high pressure builds into the region. Winds will once again increase to 15 to 25 knots, and another round of SCAs will likely be needed for at least the Chesapeake Bay and lower rivers. The area of high pressure settles over the region by Thursday afternoon. Conditions for Friday into Saturday are uncertain from a timing stand point as the flow turns NE then E as a wave of low pressure develops over the SE US and lifts into the Mid-Atlantic States. But would expect SCA conditions with the easterly flow and likely elevated seas.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . ERI/MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . MPR/RHR/JAO AVIATION . MPR MARINE . AJB CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Henderson-Oxford Airport, NC16 mi16 minSSW 11 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F57°F77%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHNZ

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1 day agoE3CalmNE3CalmNE3CalmCalmE6E3E3CalmN3CalmNW3NW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS4
2 days agoNE5NE5NE6N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N4N3N3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Tue -- 02:20 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:27 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:04 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.32.62.52.11.50.90.40.1-0.10.10.81.82.6332.62.11.50.90.40.1-0.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kingsland Reach, James River, Virginia
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Kingsland Reach
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Tue -- 02:13 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.42.72.62.11.40.80.3-0-00.31.22.12.83.132.621.30.80.30-00.4

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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