Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:09 PM   Moonset 7:26 AM

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270528 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 128 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slide to just off the New England coast tonight, moving south into early next week, with a ridge building over the area and temperatures well above normal through next week. An unsettled pattern sets up from Tuesday into next weekend with daily chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

A ~1034mb high pressure was centered just offshore of Long Island tonight. This has allowed for light E flow to continue tonight. Mid level clouds continue to increase in coverage overnight ahead of a weak warm front and subtle shortwave with mostly cloudy skies expected. The warm front/shortwave could spark an isolated shower or two across the far NW late tonight.
Otherwise, lows tonight in the upper 40s for most of the area with lower 40s possible on MD Eastern Shore where lows have likely already been reached given the cloud cover moving in.
Milder along the coast with temps around 50F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

That weak warm front will lift across our extrm nrn counties Sat into Sat evening, while the sfc high will drift south to off the nrn Mid Atlc coast. Also, upper ridging will build into the area during this time period. The warm front could trigger isolated showers over the extrm nrn counties. But otherwise, expect a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky on Sat with highs ranging through the 60s to near 70. Partly to mostly cloudy Sat night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Upper ridge then strengthens over the region for Sun aftn through Mon, resulting in increasingly warmer temps for Sun and Mon. The sfc high pressure will continue drifting south from off the Mid Atlc coast to off the SE coast. Under a partly to mostly sunny sky, high temps on Sun will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Under a sunny or mostly sunny sky on Mon, highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s, but there will likely be some upper 80s inland/Piedmont of VA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

The ridge builds over the area early next week, becoming less amplified by midweek, but lingering through the week regardless with well above normal temps expected. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Tue, in the upper 70s to mid 80s Wed and Thu. Next week will not only "feel" Summer-like due to warm temps, but also in the sense that an unsettled pattern develops from Tue-Fri with daily chances for showers/storms. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time. However, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. As such, have maintained a slight chance to chance PoPs, mainly for aftn/evening showers/storms Tue through Thu. The best chance will likely be Fri aftn/evening (30-40% PoPs), as a cold front approaches from the WNW. Highs also look to be a touch cooler on Fri (mid 70s to lower 80s).

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z taf period. Mid level clouds continue to move into the area tonight into Sat with CIGs mainly 5000-7000ft (lower in the Piedmont where MVFR CIGs are possible Sat). As such, mainly BKN sky cover continues through the day before becoming SCT Sat night with CIGs improving. Dry at the terminals with a few very light showers possible across the Piedmont late tonight into Sat and across N portions of the FA Sat afternoon. Winds were generally E <5 kt inland and 5-10 kt along the coast tonight. Winds become ESE/SE 5-10 kt by mid to late morning.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Sat night through at least Mon.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs continue for the southern coastal waters and the mouth of the bay until later this evening. SCAs in for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles light have been cancelled.

-Sub-SCA conditions expected through the middle of next week.

A large area of high pressure is situated over Eastern Canada/the NE CONUS this afternoon and has been building toward local waters.
Onshore winds continue with latest obs showing 10-15kt. Buoy obs are showing a downward trend in seas, but onshore flow is making this improvement slow. Seas N of Cape Charles Light have consistently been under 5ft for several hours, so have cancelled the SCA for those zones. Will continue to monitor buoy obs and take down SCAs as appropriate. Onshore winds of 10-15kt continue through Saturday as high pressure is slowly pushed offshore. Later in the weekend and into early next week, high pressure moves further offshore and gets pushed S. With this movement, winds become southerly (still at 10- 15kt) Sun through Tues. During this period, seas will be 3-4ft and waves 1-2ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ658.

Petersburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Chester
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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