Monday, July26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sand City, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:20PM Monday July 26, 2021 5:18 PM PDT (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:32PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 237 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 15 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 237 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Winds remain out of the northwest and are light, yet continue to drive the sea state at around 7 to 9 seconds despite a weak southerly swell present. Wind gusts will increase Monday afternoon and into the evening through the golden gate gap and into the san francisco bay. Slight chance of showers and high based Thunderstorms remains over the waters through Tuesday morning. Any developing Thunderstorms may be accompanied with lightning and erratic winds. Chances for Thunderstorms diminish Tuesday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sand City, CA
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location: 36.66, -121.86     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 262157 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 257 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Monsoon moisture has moved into our region with light shower activity today. Slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Tuesday morning. Long range trends remain seasonably warm and dry through the end of the month.

DISCUSSION. as of 02:55 PM PDT Monday . Many folks have enjoyed seeing some light rain fall across the region today. It's been a long time since we've seen actual rain drops instead of just drizzle drops from marine stratus. The monsoon moisture arrived earlier today and the first wave of light showers moved across Monterey County from south to north and has continued to track northward. Isolated to scattered light showers are now in the North Bay. We have not had any reports of lightning so far, but one of our forecasters did report some small hail that briefly hit his home southeast of Marina, CA this morning. Measurable rain has generally been just a few hundredths although a few sites reported as much as 0.08". Current radar shows that the bulk of shower and lightning activity remains to our south and southeast.

So, how will the rest of today into tomorrow play out? The hi-res NAM and HRRR models are indicating that we should see a second wave of shower activity move from south to north later tonight into Tuesday morning. The difference being that the NAM illustrates a more organized line of showers while the HRRR has a more broken, disorganized wave of shower activity. From the hi- res NAM: estimated timing of that second wave starts around 8 pm tonight for southern Monterey County. This line of showers will be oriented SW to NE and should reach South Bay & East Bay after midnight (approx 2 am) then track across SF soon after. It will then start to impact the North Bay counties around 3 am and gradually track north until it exits far northern Sonoma County by Tuesday afternoon.

We are still seeing the models indicate some instability with this second wave of showers, so have kept the mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. There is currently a large complex of thunderstorms straddling the southern NV and CA stateline that is producing a lot of lightning strikes . fortunately, it is also dropping good rain amounts ranging 0.25-0.75" with a few spots topping out over an inch. The models do not indicate that that complex will track directly into the Bay Area, but it does indicate that the instability is present. It will be interesting to see if the line of showers just west of that complex will carry some of that instability into our region and result in a few strikes. However, we're still viewing this event as low probability for thunderstorms. NAM is showing MUCAPE values up to 150 J/kg across our inland areas with this second wave while the showers over coastal waters might have more instability with MUCAPE peaking over 400 J/kg. Rain totals from the second wave are not expected to be super wet, likely staying under 0.10".

By Tuesday late afternoon/early evening, the excitement should be over and we will go back to a drier weather pattern. We've got a warm up in the forecast for the second half of the week with Thursday potentially being the warmest day. Coastal areas should peak in the mid 60s to mid 70s while inland spots range from the upper 70s to upper 90s. This is all thanks to a very large and broad high pressure ridge that will dominate much of the CONUS. By the weekend, that high pressure will weaken as an upper level low off the coast of Canada nudges inland and returns our region to a more marine influenced and seasonable climate.

AVIATION. as of 1:00 PM PDT Monday . For the 18z TAFs. A decoupled vertical profile is being observed today, with the prevailing marine boundary layer influencing our early-morning MVFR/IFR cigs along our coastal terminals (these have since retreated to the immediate coast) while monsoonal flow above the boundary is helping to enhance our mid/high-level cloud cover across all of our terminals. While VFR cigs will dominate this afternoon, these elevated clouds will continue to glide over the region (15k-20k ft) so have adjusted TAFs to account for their trajectory. Given the latest depth of the marine layer (1800-2000ft), winds at the surface will be similar in intensity and direction when compared to yesterday (nnw 10-15kts), while the gaps and passes will observe slightly breezier conditions. The marine layer will behave as it has for the last few days, with low-hanging clouds streaming back in to the coastal terminals starting this evening (MVFR/IFR) and lifting by mid/late-morning tomorrow. Will reevaluate on upcoming packages whether or not to include VCSH to the Bay Area terminals as the monsoonal setup continues to evolve and later hi-res/short-range deterministic models pick up on the overnight moisture surge a lithe better.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR for now. High clouds still making it difficult to see the extent of lower clouds around the Bay Area. Increasing mid/high level clouds into tonight due to monsoonal moisture, with a sea breeze 15-20 kt that will gradually weaken overnight. Low-confidence in the timing of potential VCSH so have not included them given but may add them in the upcoming packages should the plume of moisture show a greater likelihood of cells overcoming the marine boundary and moving inland tonight.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . VFR conditions in the afternoon before low clouds (MVFR/IFR) return by the early evening. Additionally, a surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to bring increased mid to high level clouds this evening and overnight. This will also bring a slight chance of isolated showers, which we have already seen near MRY/SNS today, so have added VCSH to account for the possibility of more isolated showers as the second surge of moisture moves in tonight. Low-hanging stratus will clear out by late morning tomorrow.

MARINE. as of 02:37 PM PDT Monday . Winds remain out of the northwest and are light, yet continue to drive the sea state at around 7 to 9 seconds despite a weak southerly swell present. Wind gusts will increase Monday afternoon and into the evening through the Golden Gate gap and into the San Francisco Bay. Slight chance of showers and high based thunderstorms remains over the waters through Tuesday morning. Any developing thunderstorms may be accompanied with lightning and erratic winds. Chances for thunderstorms diminish Tuesday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. SCA . SF Bay until 9 PM



PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman AVIATION: Diaz MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 3 mi53 min 57°F1 ft
MEYC1 4 mi49 min SW 7 G 9.9 60°F 1014.5 hPa
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 10 mi31 min NW 5.1 59°F 55°F
46092 - MBM1 11 mi56 min WSW 5.8 58°F 58°F1014.4 hPa (-0.3)
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 13 mi94 min WNW 7 63°F 1015 hPa57°F
46269 21 mi49 min 59°F 61°F3 ft
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 26 mi53 min 58°F5 ft
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 26 mi53 min 58°F5 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 30 mi39 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 57°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA5 mi25 minW 910.00 miFair69°F56°F63%1015.4 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA13 mi26 minNW 1210.00 miFair67°F56°F68%1015 hPa
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA20 mi26 minSW 710.00 miFair70°F56°F61%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRY

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W8W7W5W3W4SW4CalmE3CalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmNW4W5NW8W6W11W9
1 day agoW9W6W9W6SW4S3SW4CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmN4NW7NW5NW7W9W12W13W11
2 days agoSW10W8W8SW5S3SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW3CalmN4NW6W7W7W7W7W9W11

Tide / Current Tables for Monterey, Monterey Harbor, California
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Monterey
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:49 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:55 PM PDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM PDT     2.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.25.84.93.62.10.7-0.3-0.8-0.60.21.32.53.64.24.44.23.73.12.62.52.73.34.25

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:04 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:20 AM PDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:13 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:16 PM PDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:33 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:56 PM PDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:31 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.70.80.80.60.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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