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FXHW60 PHFO 300651 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 851 PM HST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Moist and humid conditions with south to southeast winds will persist into the weekend due to a kona low located west of the islands. Showery conditions with periods of heavy rainfall are possible each day, which will keep the threat for flooding up. In addition to the rainfall potential, thunderstorms are possible, with a few potentially becoming strong through Thursday.
Conditions should begin to improve Sunday through early next week as drier air moves in and the trades return.

DISCUSSION
Deep tropical moisture pooling northward over the state due to a kona low lurking to our west will support moist and humid conditions with southerly flow persisting into the weekend.
Showery conditions with periods of heavy rainfall are expected, which could lead to flash flooding where the rainfall becomes focused for a given amount of time. Given the lack of focus at the surface, expect the rainfall to develop in bands and move through periodically. Uncertainty in predicting exactly when and where these will develop and move through remains high. In addition to the rainfall potential, improved kinematics associated with a band of 40+ knots of deep layer shear (0-6 km) evolving over the western end of the state plus the added instability with lowering upper heights and upper forcing support a few strong storms developing through Thursday. For the Big Island Summits, areas of showers developing and lifting northward in the area will keep the potential in place for a wintry mix into Thursday.

Conditions should begin to improve late in the weekend through early next week with drier air moving in and as the trades return.

AVIATION
A kona low west of the state will keep moderate south to southeast winds and scattered moderate to locally heavy showers across the Hawaii Region over the next several days. Bands of developing heavy showers will be the focus for periods of MVFR and brief IFR conditions across the state through Thursday.

AIRMET Sierra is posted for mountain obscurations over Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui. These conditions could spread to the Big Island later tonight if moderate to heavy shower activity increases.

AIRMET Tango is in effect statewide for moderate midlevel turbulence in the 120 to FL180 layer due to wind shear and convection caused by the kona low. THis AIRMET will likely continue into Thursday.

Light icing in layered clouds will remain a concern across the islands as well. Icing potential could possibly increase to AIRMET Zulu level overnight as deep layered moisture increases across the region.

MARINE
A kona low located west of Kauai and surface high pressure to the distant northeast will keep moderate to strong south to southeast winds in place through Friday. Winds will ease and shift back to trade winds this weekend as the kona low weakens into a broad trough west of the state and surface ridging redevelops to the north. The trades will gradually strengthen next week as a new high builds to the distant north and northwest.

A new small to moderate, medium period northwest will peak tonight and Thursday, then gradually lower through Saturday. A new moderate, long period northwest swell will start to fill in Saturday, peak near advisory levels on Sunday, then slowly subside Monday. A new north-northwest reinforcing swell is forecast to arrive Monday night, and could push surf up above the advisory threshold Tuesday through next Wednesday. Expect choppy conditions along south facing shores due to persistent southerly winds mixed with small, long period south swells during the next couple days. Less choppy conditions can be expected over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores is expected to hold near seasonal levels during the next couple days, then lower below average over the weekend into early next week. Strengthening trade winds could boost east shore surf up above seasonal levels around the middle of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for all Hawaii islands-

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.

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