Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Middles, KY

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 8:01PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 2:46 PM EDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:45PMMoonset 6:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middles, KY
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location: 36.66, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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FXUS63 KJKL 071822 AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 222 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 222 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2020

Based on forecast soundings, deep convection can't be ruled out this afternoon. However, the NAM is basically dry, while the GFS has only some light precip. Have left the POP forecast unchanged with 20% over all but the southwest part of the area this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1110 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2020

A stray thunderstorm popped up in Leslie and Harlan counties a little while ago. However, the remainder of the area has been dry, with the precip coverage being minuscule. Have updated the forecast for near term trends in obs, including sky cover, but the overall forecast shows little change.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2020

We are seeing a few showers pop up from time to time this morning. The nighttime microphysics channel reveals some convective clouds are showing up mainly in northeast and far eastern Kentucky this morning. The correlates well with where we have seen showers on radar and leaned my PoPs that direction. This is a minor update overall outside come small changes for the latest obs an trends.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 413 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2020

The upper levels are generally characterized by westerly/quasi- zonal flow under broad ridging in the southeast US. In the lower levels we will see southwest flow as we remain in the warm sector across Kentucky. A weak impulse in the upper levels is bringing the chance for some isolated showers early this morning, but overall most will remain dry. Given the broad flow and being located in the warm sector think this will lead to at least some isolated chances of convection through the afternoon. However, limited this more to the far east through the day. That said, the ample CAPE and effective shear seen today could allow for more vigorous updrafts and organization, but seems like it may be tough to find enough lift to get over the 700 mb capping inversion in most cases. The other story will be warm temperatures under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with highs expected to climb into the upper 70s this afternoon.

Tonight, a surface low will push through the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and the trailing cold front will progress toward Kentucky. This feature is amid steep mid level lapse rates around 7 to 7.5 C/km, ample MUCAPE, and effective shear around 30 knots could lead to few organized storms. The trend however has been for the better CAPE and shear environment to remain more to the northeast. The CAMs also want to show more robust storms remaining in northeast Kentucky. This has lead to substantial changes to the Day 1 from the previous Day 2 and this will lead to better chances of severe storms across northeast and far eastern Kentucky late tonight into early Wednesday morning. The main threat is still for strong winds and large hail.

Then by Wednesday the diffuse front will remain nearby, and the question becomes can we see storms develop again in the afternoon on Wednesday. This given some debris clouds remaining in place from earlier convection. The model guidance does show some resurgence in the instability with steep mid level lapse rates remaining in place and ample effective shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. Kept the better PoPs in southeast Kentucky owing to the better lift from the front. The afternoon highs will be slightly cooler given cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2020

The models are in better agreement aloft for the first part of the extended portion of the forecast than they have been the past several runs, but then their agreement wanes with time. They all depict a pattern change on the way starting Wednesday night as a strong northern stream trough drops into the Midwest and Great Lakes for Thursday. This system then cycles over the region with sharply lowering heights and a secondary surge of energy passing through Kentucky on Friday. Eventually, the trough moves off to the east while the flow relaxes and heights stage a comeback north of a flat ridge over the Deep South into the start of the weekend. Attention then turns to a trough coming out of the southern stream and moving to the Southern Plains early Sunday - faster in the GFS, but not as open, compared to the ECMWF. This will place Kentucky in broad southwest flow with mid level energy spreading over the state from later Saturday through Sunday morning. This energy and the remains of the trough will sweep through eastern Kentucky by Monday per model consensus, though the better northern stream support and faster timing is noted in the GFS compared to the ECMWF at those late period time steps. Regardless, heights appear to be destined to be much lower to conclude the forecast as a winter like gyre will dominate the mid and upper levels for much of the eastern half of the nation. Given the early model agreement did not see the need to make any large scale adjustments to the NBM package, though the uncertainty and growing spread later in the period does limit confidence in any model specifics from Sunday through Monday night.

Sensible weather will feature the initial system's cold front passing through eastern Kentucky early Thursday with some showers and possible thunderstorms. This brings in a colder air mass that does mostly clear out the pcpn and much of the clouds through the end of the week. As a result, we could see some patchy frost both Thursday and Friday night with even a few spots having a potential for freezing conditions - likely limited to the the most sheltered valleys on Friday night. The broad area of high pressure will then move east into the weekend as return flow brings more moisture and warmth back into the area. This will set the stage, when combined with the trough's approach aloft, for a developing low to spread southwest to northeast through the state on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms a good bet. Pcpn from this system could linger into Monday as a trailing cold front passes through at some point sending temperatures back below normal to start the new week.

As for temperatures from the NBM did make mainly night time adjustments for ridge to valley splits of varying degrees from Thursday night through Sunday morning. With the PoPs, ended up mainly timing the systems better than implied by the NBM per the NAM12 early on and more like the ECMWF with the second system late in the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2020

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, and west to southwest winds were gusting 15-20 kts in some places. Predominantly VFR conditions should persist until late tonight, but winds will lose much of their gustiness after sunset. After about 04Z MVFR ceilings are expected to become more prevalent, with almost the entire area affected from 10Z to the end of the period. Thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime hours of Wednesday, but confidence in timing/location is not high enough to warrant anything more than VCTS in the TAFs at this time.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

UPDATE . HAL SHORT TERM . DJ LONG TERM . GREIF AVIATION . HAL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Middlesboro, Middlesboro-Bell County Airport, KY3 mi71 minW 310.00 miOvercast75°F56°F52%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A6

Wind History from 1A6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW8
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NW4NW4S4SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S5W4
1 day agoN3N4NW4NW7NW6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NW4NW5W7
2 days agoNE6NW7N5N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

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Wind Forecast for Jackson, KY (14,3,4,5)
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