Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Middles, KY

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Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:20PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 9:31AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middles, KY
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location: 36.66, -83.74     debug

Area Discussion for - Jackson, KY
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Fxus63 kjkl 192005
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ky
405 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 405 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
19z sfc analysis shows high pressure a bit weaker this afternoon
than yesterday with lower pressure to the west and north. This,
and the warmth at mid levels, has helped to keep the little
convection we have seen so far this afternoon from becoming too
strong or expansive, thus far. The showers been contained in the
western kentucky river valley through mid afternoon while high
clouds seems to have slowed any development in our southeast high
terrain. Temperatures again made it to the low and mid 90s for
most of the area with dewpoints up a notch from yesterday in the
upper 60s and lower 70s sending the heat indices to around 100
degrees most places. Winds have been light and mostly from the
southwest today.

The models remain in fairly good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict heights holding
steady over the area as northwest flow brings a strong shortwave
through the ohio valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will
be a ridge rider moving through a divergent environment and
dampen heights over northeast kentucky briefly before they start
to rebound by 12z Wednesday - quickest in the canadian - from the
expansive southwest ridge. Given this agreement will again favor
a blended model solution as represented by the nbm - along with a
healthy dose of the better verifying cams in the near term.

Sensible weather features a very warm evening with any isolated
convective activity dissipating before sunset. Again we will see a
small ridge to valley temperature difference under mostly clear
skies for most of the night before some high clouds could move in
late. The clearing and a bit more boundary layer moisture should
allow for more in the way of fog late tonight - still mainly
confined to the river channels and valleys, though. For Tuesday,
a more active and less certain weather day will unfold. Hot
temperatures are again on tap with increasing dewpoints making for
more sultry conditions. Convection will be the big uncertainty as
the heights bump down a bit due to the approach of that mid level
shortwave. This impulse should be enough to develop strong and
organized storms to the northwest of the area with their
subsequent tracks and further development potentially pushing
into our area late in the day. And that is not to rule out some
more isolated activity through the afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached but with little in the way of good
triggers until that influence arrives from the northwest. This
will have to be watched through the day as a large enough system
could turn into our area late in the day and tap into some very
unstable air. The models have not settled on a firm solution here,
yet, though, so have played it conservative in the grids - but
more substantial storms and coverage are not out of the question
depending on the upstream development. Barring a large storm
cluster moving through Tuesday evening and early in the night - we
should see a similar night to this upcoming one with clearing
skies and small chances for rain - along with some more river
valley fog by dawn.

The nbm was again used as the starting point for all the grids
with only minor adjustments to temperatures (mostly higher given
recent trends and underdone drying) at some points along with
minor ridge and valley differences for tonight and Tuesday night.

For pops, adhered to the diurnal trends until later Tuesday when
northwest activity and outflows could dominate.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 343 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
the start of the extended period will become more active overtime,
as a cold front approaches and moves across the ohio valley. The
question for the period will be the progression of the front and
subsequently the amount of pops that come along with that. The
models suggest the better chances of seeing storms is now
Thursday, as frontal movement south is slower overall. There will
also be a bit better connection to the right entrance region of a
upper level jet progressing into the northeast. The models are
struggling with consistency from run to run on how far south the
frontal boundary makes it, and the ECMWF has been slower before
the latest 00z run opted to take it further into the tennessee
valley. Given the uncertainty couldn’t see being too aggressive
in bringing drier air in area wide to end the week and also
typically these fronts struggle to make it south given the time of
year. However, did keep a good portion of the bluegrass dry for
Saturday as a result of the latest guidance. By Sunday this
feature may actually shift back as an inverted surface trough, and
lead to some pops in the southeast portions of kentucky at least.

It will be another warm day on Wednesday, but shouldn’t be as
warm temperature wise given the increasing moisture. However, the
increasing moisture will make it steamy, but this will also depend
on cloud coverage. The remainder of the period will come in closer
to normal or perhaps just below for this time of year, with more
clouds and potential for storms.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 145 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
vfr conditions will prevail through the majority of the time
across the forecast area. Some patchy MVFR, or worse, river
valley fog will likely form once again between 06 and 12z Tuesday
morning. Diurnally driven cumulus at 4-6k feet agl, and isolated
showers or a storm, will be around through the rest of the
afternoon, before diminishing by dusk. Similar conditions are
expected through the day Tuesday ahead of better chances for
storms expected to arrive late in the day. Generally south to
southwest winds will average around 5 kts or less through the

Jkl watches warnings advisories

Short term... Greif
long term... Dj
aviation... Geogerian greif

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Middlesboro, Middlesboro-Bell County Airport, KY3 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair92°F70°F50%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A6

Wind History from 1A6 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S6CalmW4W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5
1 day agoCalmCalmN3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4E4S3
2 days agoCalmN5N4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, KY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.